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Wednesday, June 22, 2016

The Best Candidate to Handle the Economy and the Trump Paradox

The pundits are making much of Trump being favored by Hillary Clinton on the economy by about 7 points in a new CNN poll, though she does lead him by 5 on the race overall. 

She also leads him very big on who's ready to be President on day one. 

The narrative that Trump would be great on the economy, he'd make 'great deals' and bring back 'smart management'' is the reason that those in the poll think he'd be good on the economy. 

Bear in mind, though, that Romney also led Obama on the economy for most of the 2012 race. 

As for this idea that Trump would be great for the economy because he's a great businessman, there are a few issues with that. 

1. A great businessman won't necessarily be a great President. 

2. In any case, Trump is not a great businessman. 

This brings us to the Trump Paradox:

"An article in the Washington Post back in 2004 talked to a business analyst who observed that 'Those who know the least about business admire him the most, and those who know the most about business admire him the least.'"

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/06/trump-makes-top-ten-of-biggest-threats.html

Trump is not a great businessman. He is a trust fund baby. His father gave him $200 million dollars in 1974-in 2016 dollars.

His return on this money has not been great. He'd have made more money putting it in a S&P index fund.

He claimed for years to have $5 billion. This is likely false. He's lucky if he has $1 billion. What's interesting is that since the general started and he's been questioned, he's now claiming he's worth $8 or $9 billion. Which makes sense. If you want people to choose B then give them an A and a C.

Mark Cuban-a real billionaire-is probably closer to the mark. He's suggested that Trump has only $165 million dollars.

He's after Trump again.

"If @realDonaldTrump were fractionally as rich as he says he is,he would write a$200mm check to propel his campaign. He doesn't have the cash."

"He then retweeted a series of his own messages from earlier this month, wherein he argued that Trump would be more beholden to the donor class than presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would be."

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/21/he-doesnt-have-the-cash-mark-cuban-calls-out-trump.html

Cuban back on June 8:

1) "I expect @realDonaldTrump to try to calm down. He doesn't have the cash to fund his campaign, he needs to appease donors quickly."

2) "he had less than 165mm in cash and falling for a campaign that will cost 750mm or more. He will have to grovel for that cash and will."

Just on the level intuition, it makes sense. If Trump is so fabulously rich then he wouldn't be begging for $100 grand.

Besides the Trump Paradox we have the Scott Sumner Assertion. This states that there is no public opinion on economics-as most people don't understand economics.

Saying this is not exactly populist, but if 50 percent of Americans think Trump would be strong on the economy it's tough to disagree with him.




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