Donald Trumps of the world unite:
Huffington Post makes the point that Donald Trump is not just a national scourge but an international problem.
"Trumps Of The World."
"Nativist demagogues around the globe are trying to seize this as their moment."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trumps-of-the-world_us_57645112e4b0853f8bf0df75?section=
Actually, by giving it some worldwide context, it shows why things are actually going better for Americans once again.
We have had a better recovery than Europe-thanks to the euro straitjacket. And if anything our politics are less dysfunctional, impossible as that may seem. Or more the the point, they may well prove to be less so. If Hillary wins-and she's favored at 75 percent now to do so-then we can say this is the case.
https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html
Interestingly, the betting markets now have Trump at just 86 percent to be the GOP nominee. Not that I buy that, but it shows how bad things are going for him.
And that's just it. Tyler Cowen referred to Brexit as the Donald Trump of England.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/06/there-is-no-good-reason-for-brexit.html
But the Trump of England is polling much better than the actual Trump here in the states.
The Brits really are on the cusp of doing something for which there's no good reason at all.
Simon Wren-Lewis discusses the politicization of Brexit.
"Ignoring expert pluralities: for uncertain outcomes, failing to mention that one side is a minority view. The economics of Brexit is an example."
"Allowing politicians to create untruths. Labour profligacy caused austerity is an example.
Repeating politically generated untruths. For example 'the 364 economists were wrong'.
Huffington Post makes the point that Donald Trump is not just a national scourge but an international problem.
"Trumps Of The World."
"Nativist demagogues around the globe are trying to seize this as their moment."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trumps-of-the-world_us_57645112e4b0853f8bf0df75?section=
Actually, by giving it some worldwide context, it shows why things are actually going better for Americans once again.
We have had a better recovery than Europe-thanks to the euro straitjacket. And if anything our politics are less dysfunctional, impossible as that may seem. Or more the the point, they may well prove to be less so. If Hillary wins-and she's favored at 75 percent now to do so-then we can say this is the case.
https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html
Interestingly, the betting markets now have Trump at just 86 percent to be the GOP nominee. Not that I buy that, but it shows how bad things are going for him.
And that's just it. Tyler Cowen referred to Brexit as the Donald Trump of England.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/06/there-is-no-good-reason-for-brexit.html
But the Trump of England is polling much better than the actual Trump here in the states.
The Brits really are on the cusp of doing something for which there's no good reason at all.
Simon Wren-Lewis discusses the politicization of Brexit.
"I think we can talk about at least four types of politicisation of truth:
Ignoring facts: ‘shape of the earth: views differ’ type reporting."
Ignoring facts: ‘shape of the earth: views differ’ type reporting."
"Ignoring expert pluralities: for uncertain outcomes, failing to mention that one side is a minority view. The economics of Brexit is an example."
"Allowing politicians to create untruths. Labour profligacy caused austerity is an example.
Repeating politically generated untruths. For example 'the 364 economists were wrong'.
"The first is created by the overriding need for balance. The second and third may be, but they can also just reflect inadequate reporting, which is responsible for the fourth. They all are examples of political views overriding truth."
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2016/06/more-on-brexit-and-politicisation-of.html
Yes. We see the Beltway engaged in 1 all the time. If one side says A and the other side says B, we should just be balanced between these two options rather than looking at actual facts. It was that reporting the Beltway used in the 2000 election between Gore and Bush.
"A clear Brexit example of ‘shape of the earth: views differ’ style of reporting is the £350 million a week figure. Furthermore it is a clever lie, because it focuses attention on a direct benefit of Brexit, and away from probable costs. (I’ve no idea if this is true, but I once heard that when Joseph McCarthy claimed there were many communists working in government, he would keep changing the number. As a result, the topic of conversation became how many there actually were, rather than whether there were any at all and whether it mattered.) It is not the only example from those campaigning for Brexit."
"In practice I think more damage is done by the treatment of uncertain events with probable outcomes. The medium term cost of Brexit is of course uncertain. But a huge majority of economists think it is much more likely to be an economic cost rather than an economic benefit. So Minford was proposing something that only around 5% of UK economists believe. That is widely acknowledged on all sides, so when the BBC or any other media organisation fails to mention that, they distort the truth. Or, to put it another way, it is not balance at all but favours the Leave side. Another example from those campaigning for Brexit is the prospect of Turkey joining the EU."
"This is a generic problem which politicians and others exploit. There is a huge consensus among climate scientists, yet if the ‘balance’ model is applied to global warming - which it will be if the subject gets politicised - we get the media giving the impression of scientific division. That is why in the US over a third of people think that scientists do not generally agree about man made global warming. Perhaps it is also why so many people think Brexit will not be a medium term cost to them."
Indeed, in the US we treat global warming as a difference of opinion.
Meanwhile the market was up 200 points today on new polling that shows Remain rallying.
"Polls showed a resurgence in support for the U.K. to remain in the European Union this weekend, driving gains for global stock markets and the British pound on Monday."
"The pound GBPUSD, +1.9570% rose to $1.4653, from $1.4362 on Friday, when it logged its first weekly gain in three weeks as fears of a Brexit began subsiding somewhat. Asian markets logged sharp gains, and stock futures indicated a stronger open for U.S. markets later on Monday."
"Voters will cast their ballot on Thursday to decide whether Britain will exit the EU. An opinion poll by Survation for newspaper the Mail on Sunday showed 45% in favor of remaining and 42% in favor of leaving. That telephone poll was conducted Friday and Saturday, after the killing of British politician Jo Cox. It shows a swing back to “remain,” as a previous survey conducted on Thursday by Survation had put Brexit in the lead by 3 points."
"Cox was stabbed and shot as she met with constituents in Birstall, the town in northern England that she represented in parliament. The man accused of killing her, Thomas Mair, appeared in court on Saturday, giving his name as “Death to traitors, freedom for Britain.”
"The prosecutor said Mair was heard to shout “Britain first, keep Britain independent, Britain always comes first” as he attacked her. Some are speculating that the death of Cox, a mother of two and an active pro-EU campaigner, may have swayed some voters who were on the fence over the June 23 referendum."
"Two polls conducted by YouGov published also showed a fall-back in support for Brexit. A survey for ITV’s “Good Morning Britain” found “leave” ahead of “remain” by 44% to 42%, but another, for the Sunday Times, put the pro-EU vote at 44% and Brexit support at 43%. The ITV poll was conducted before the murder of Cox, while two-thirds of responses to the Sunday Times survey came in after it."
“While there will be speculation about whether this movement is connected to the tragic death of Jo Cox, we do not think that it is,” said Anthony Well, director in YouGov’s political and social research team, in a blog post.
“The underlying figures suggest the movement may be more to do with people worrying about the economic impact of leaving the European Union,” he added.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit-polls-show-increased-support-for-the-uk-remain-camp-2016-06-20
Whatever the reason the Dow likes it.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/06/20/stocks-dow-monday/86130556/
Yes. We see the Beltway engaged in 1 all the time. If one side says A and the other side says B, we should just be balanced between these two options rather than looking at actual facts. It was that reporting the Beltway used in the 2000 election between Gore and Bush.
"A clear Brexit example of ‘shape of the earth: views differ’ style of reporting is the £350 million a week figure. Furthermore it is a clever lie, because it focuses attention on a direct benefit of Brexit, and away from probable costs. (I’ve no idea if this is true, but I once heard that when Joseph McCarthy claimed there were many communists working in government, he would keep changing the number. As a result, the topic of conversation became how many there actually were, rather than whether there were any at all and whether it mattered.) It is not the only example from those campaigning for Brexit."
"In practice I think more damage is done by the treatment of uncertain events with probable outcomes. The medium term cost of Brexit is of course uncertain. But a huge majority of economists think it is much more likely to be an economic cost rather than an economic benefit. So Minford was proposing something that only around 5% of UK economists believe. That is widely acknowledged on all sides, so when the BBC or any other media organisation fails to mention that, they distort the truth. Or, to put it another way, it is not balance at all but favours the Leave side. Another example from those campaigning for Brexit is the prospect of Turkey joining the EU."
"This is a generic problem which politicians and others exploit. There is a huge consensus among climate scientists, yet if the ‘balance’ model is applied to global warming - which it will be if the subject gets politicised - we get the media giving the impression of scientific division. That is why in the US over a third of people think that scientists do not generally agree about man made global warming. Perhaps it is also why so many people think Brexit will not be a medium term cost to them."
Indeed, in the US we treat global warming as a difference of opinion.
Meanwhile the market was up 200 points today on new polling that shows Remain rallying.
"Polls showed a resurgence in support for the U.K. to remain in the European Union this weekend, driving gains for global stock markets and the British pound on Monday."
"The pound GBPUSD, +1.9570% rose to $1.4653, from $1.4362 on Friday, when it logged its first weekly gain in three weeks as fears of a Brexit began subsiding somewhat. Asian markets logged sharp gains, and stock futures indicated a stronger open for U.S. markets later on Monday."
"Voters will cast their ballot on Thursday to decide whether Britain will exit the EU. An opinion poll by Survation for newspaper the Mail on Sunday showed 45% in favor of remaining and 42% in favor of leaving. That telephone poll was conducted Friday and Saturday, after the killing of British politician Jo Cox. It shows a swing back to “remain,” as a previous survey conducted on Thursday by Survation had put Brexit in the lead by 3 points."
"Cox was stabbed and shot as she met with constituents in Birstall, the town in northern England that she represented in parliament. The man accused of killing her, Thomas Mair, appeared in court on Saturday, giving his name as “Death to traitors, freedom for Britain.”
"The prosecutor said Mair was heard to shout “Britain first, keep Britain independent, Britain always comes first” as he attacked her. Some are speculating that the death of Cox, a mother of two and an active pro-EU campaigner, may have swayed some voters who were on the fence over the June 23 referendum."
"Two polls conducted by YouGov published also showed a fall-back in support for Brexit. A survey for ITV’s “Good Morning Britain” found “leave” ahead of “remain” by 44% to 42%, but another, for the Sunday Times, put the pro-EU vote at 44% and Brexit support at 43%. The ITV poll was conducted before the murder of Cox, while two-thirds of responses to the Sunday Times survey came in after it."
“While there will be speculation about whether this movement is connected to the tragic death of Jo Cox, we do not think that it is,” said Anthony Well, director in YouGov’s political and social research team, in a blog post.
“The underlying figures suggest the movement may be more to do with people worrying about the economic impact of leaving the European Union,” he added.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit-polls-show-increased-support-for-the-uk-remain-camp-2016-06-20
Whatever the reason the Dow likes it.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/06/20/stocks-dow-monday/86130556/
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