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Saturday, June 25, 2016

Nation Building is Hard: the Rise of Little England

We can debate wether Brexit was a good idea. I think it wasn't though at this point you have to salvage what you can.

We can debate the economic effects. What is really interesting, though, is that the British may have just voted for the disintegration of Europe but of Britain itself.

Krugman:

"Where I think there has been real additional damage done, damage that wouldn’t have happened but for Cameron’s policy malfeasance, is within the UK itself. I am of course not an expert here, but it looks all too likely that the vote will both empower the worst elements in British political life and lead to the breakup of the UK itself. Prime Minister Boris looks a lot more likely than President Donald; but he may find himself Prime Minister of England – full stop."

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/24/brexit-the-morning-after/?

The Brexit vote may have been the beginning of the unravelling of the EU, the very idea of a United States of Europe. Which points to how hard it is to unite states.

Our own United States of America maybe makes it seem easy. But we fought a very bloody civil war were more Americans died than in any other war.

When you add up all the Americans that have died in all wars, those who died in the Civil War are about 48 percent of the total.

http://www.civilwar.org/education/history/faq/?referrer=https://www.google.com/

We shouldn't be shocked how tough it is to build democracy in Iraq or any Middle Eastern nation with these sharp divisions among the population among religion where it has proven so elusive even in much more favorable circumstances.

What is truly shocking is that the UK may be about to disintegrate. But there is a sense in that the country has been divided for a long time.

The English themselves have been very conservative in recent elections. The Scotts and Northern Ireland are much more liberal or leftist.

What's clear is that the future for the Labour party may be very grim in the future if they don't figure out something. This Brexit vote was something that they party didn't support and now that it's happened, the chances of Scotland leaving has jumped considerably.

They are already looking into

1. Working with the EU to stay in.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-25/scotland-starts-drive-to-stay-in-eu-independence-option-open/7543950

2. Having a new referendum to leave Britain.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36621030

What Labour needs to do and what it has failed to do is be a strong voice for staying in the EU.

For them, if the Scottish leave it's catastrophic. Once the UK devolves to Little England, Labour may never win an election again.

But they have failed in this. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats have smartly out themselves forward as the only overtly pro EU party.

Lib Dems positioning themselves as the only overtly pro-EU "party of the 48%"

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/746711119079817216

This is smart. Labour needs those Scottish voters. But maybe they move to Lib Dem rather than live the UK.

The petition for a new Brexit vote by those who want to reverse it has already seen its website crash for all the excitement it's generated.
http://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article85703287.html


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