This sentiment by Chris Hayes frustrates me.
I don't want a future in which politics is primarily a battle between cosmopolitan finance capitalism and ethno-nationalist backlash."
https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/746181566351679492
"This is why a humane, organized, populist *and* inclusive Left is so important."
https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/746181847449743360
Disagree. Populism is not the solution it's the problem wether on Left or Right.
I don't want a future in which politics is primarily a battle between cosmopolitan finance capitalism and ethno-nationalist backlash."
https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/746181566351679492
"This is why a humane, organized, populist *and* inclusive Left is so important."
https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/746181847449743360
Disagree. Populism is not the solution it's the problem wether on Left or Right.
I'd love Hayes to offer just one example of a historical 'humane, populist Left.'
His problem is that he's not willing to resist ethno nationalism until 'financial capitalism' is defeated.
Matt Yglesias has the right rejoinder:
"Here is a dull take: That one group of establishment policymakers made bad policies is not a good reason to make new, even worse policies."
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/746364970678497280
I agree that the EU has handled the euro crisis with complete incompetence.
But you heard Hayes' sort of argument in 1932 by Stalin's Marxists.
Sure, Hitler was a bad guy but the Social Democrats were Social Fascists themselves.
This is the same thing you get in the US, where those who preferred Bernie Sanders sometimes seem more concerned about getting a pure progressive than defeating Trump.
There are many problems that need to be solved but the answer is surely not Trump and Boris Johnson.
But the populist Left is more concerned with attacking the Weimar Republic than Hitler.
Talking about just desserts doesn't help mitigate the horrors of fascism.
His problem is that he's not willing to resist ethno nationalism until 'financial capitalism' is defeated.
Matt Yglesias has the right rejoinder:
"Here is a dull take: That one group of establishment policymakers made bad policies is not a good reason to make new, even worse policies."
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/746364970678497280
I agree that the EU has handled the euro crisis with complete incompetence.
But you heard Hayes' sort of argument in 1932 by Stalin's Marxists.
Sure, Hitler was a bad guy but the Social Democrats were Social Fascists themselves.
This is the same thing you get in the US, where those who preferred Bernie Sanders sometimes seem more concerned about getting a pure progressive than defeating Trump.
There are many problems that need to be solved but the answer is surely not Trump and Boris Johnson.
But the populist Left is more concerned with attacking the Weimar Republic than Hitler.
Talking about just desserts doesn't help mitigate the horrors of fascism.
Did you read Simon Wren-Lewis today?
ReplyDeleteMike, is it true that ~2 million Brits living in other EU countries could not vote on this? (i.e. no mail ins or other accommodations for them)?
ReplyDeleteInteresting question as technically, I'm one of them. Never thought of that before.
ReplyDeleteI have Simon-Wren Lewis' post bookmarked to read. I still haven't read him or Krugman's big response yet but it's ready.
Good point... you should have been able to vote on this. Why weren't you allowed? Did you have to travel there to vote? Did you have to show recent residence there?
DeleteIn all fairness, it's not like I asked. LOL.
DeleteI never even thought of it till now. Whether I could or not-I just don't know
According to this, the do-over petition is now in excess of 200k signatures, despite the site going down from too much traffic:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article85703287.html
That's certainly some very good news. I wonder how many who have signed voted Brexit? Maybe a decent amount based on some anecdotes
ReplyDeleteI thought this paragraph from Bloomberg was good, and it meshes nicely with Wren-Lewis' piece:
ReplyDeleteGlobalization, and immigration, promote growth. But neither can benefit the majority over the longer term unless the state invests in physical infrastructure and human capital. Unfortunately this isn't happening. Accounting rules that assimilate investment into budgetary spending ensure that investment spending is crowded out of budgets. Focused on balancing budgets and believing austerity to be an unqualified virtue, Britain failed to invest in its future and sowed the seeds of the current divisions that produced Thursday's dramatic referendum result.
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-24/globalization-s-discontents-are-many
The irony is that the British voted for austerity. It had nothing to do with the EU as Britain was not on the euro
ReplyDeleteMike, That's partly true. I'm pretty sure that as an EU member GB cannot deficit spend in excess of 3% of GDP.
DeleteI think you are correct nanute, Im not sure but I think thats right.
DeleteThey have their own currency but they had to agree to certain stipulations.... they had to show they were serious about adhering to certain ......German.... ideas on how best to run an economy.
Again, I don't think Boris Johnson is going to spend more than 3% GDP on deficit spending.
DeleteBritain has been voting anti Keynes for a long time. In 2010 Cameron ran on making sure Britain is not like Greece.
These are not only German ideas.
If the Brits start deficit spending once Johnson gets in, I'll agree Brexit had some positive effects-though it still sucks that people there now need a visa to travel to Europe.
Well Mike you are correct that THIS vote alone does not solve everything, they now need to vote in different British politicians. Its a process and the people need to take control and responsibility for the leaders they choose. They have NO choice of the people who make the Euro decisions out of Brussels.
DeleteName me one such politician?
DeleteI have to say I don't feel much optimism. This going to empower UKIP guys like Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson who liked about $350 M pounds for the NIH.
These are not guys interested in deficit spending for the average Brit
Greg, I can only point out that most people in Britain who agree with you-or me for that matter on policy-voted to stay in.
DeleteNow that this has happened, these same folks-mostly in Scotland and Northern Ireland are going to try to leave the UK and work out a deal with the EU to stay.
Which is fine-so long as they don't make the mistake of taking on the euro.
But overall, this empowers the Right wing in Great Britain-or should I say Little England-in the long term.
London, might consider cutting itself off the island and floating out to sea.
If there was a way for London to become part of Scotland everyone would be happy.
But mostly you'll see England dominated by anti Keynesian Right wing politicians going forward who will not be interested in any Keynesian pump priming or deficit spending or any such.
I admit I don't know about that specifically.
ReplyDeleteWhat I do know is that David Cameron ran on making sure Britain is not Greece.
In 2014, Labour ran on Keynesian stimulus and Cameron ran on austerity and the Brits-or more to the point, the English-voted for austerity.
Brexit was not a vote to protest austerity.
A lot of times cultural grievance masquerades as economic grievance.
"Just as we’re seeing in Britain, cultural anxieties are often expressed as economic anxieties; the two aren’t completely separable. You can have a sincerely felt concern that immigrants will take your job, at the same time as what really bugs you is the feeling that they’re changing the character of your country, making it feel like it’s no longer your place. If we could just stop the flow of outsiders, many believe, we could return to the time where everybody talked like me and looked like me and thought like me."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/06/24/in-britain-cultural-resentments-won-out-over-stability-can-donald-trump-create-the-same-result-here/
I doubt very much that when Boris Johnson takes over, he's going to demand deficit spending in excess of 3% of GDP.
I think the leave vote was a bit of both, Mike. Sovereignty be the main sticking point along with the fact that austerity has had a much larger impact on the middle and aging population. But you're right on the point of what Johnson will not do. And there is where the leave votes will be once again disillusioned. The political elites have been systematically undermining the social safety net since Thatcher.
DeleteAll this worrying about "market reactions" (over reactions to be sure) is beside the point IMO. Im ready for the day when we stop holding our fingers up to the "market reactions" wind to see which way we think its blowing before we decide anything. Markets will always overreact to change..... deal with it. Most importantly we need to get to where we insulate the real economy from these casinos who simply look to profit from misery..... or joy.... or everything.
ReplyDeleteBritain is 4% of world GDP, if Chinas "uncertainty" couldn't derail the world economy back a few months ago at 20% of the world GDP I think GB is going to be a blip in a few weeks. Thats not to say that no one in GB will be negatively affected by this decision, someone is negatively affected by every decision its just a matter of who.
That much of this vote was driven by xenophobia is unfortunate. I think many of the people made a correct decision for the wrong reasons. And the fact that young people want to stay in the EU shows how they want what the Euro professed to be able to do and they likely still believe the Euro can bring a more united Europe..... but they are wrong, in my view, that the current arrangement can or will do that. Im not sure its goals even were that. Its goals were always monetary and intended to use markets to discipline people. All the other talk was a sales pitch, never at the core of the project.
I hope young people can create the Europe they want but they have to stop looking to their daddies and grand daddies to do it, those guys are brainwashed old idiots who are in the thrall of German/French/US bankers and have some perverted ideas on what a good society looks like
I disagree. The young people weren't voting for the sales pitch. They rationally understood that answering some bad choices of the EU with even worse of their own, aren't going to improve things.
DeleteAgain, I ask you to look at history. A lot of this stuff sounds like the 1930s. You could have had all these criticisms of the Weimar Republic.
Still doesn't look like the better choice in retrospect.
I think it's more simple. The older generation screwed over the young with their nonsense and it's the young who will suffer from this for years.
It's' going to take so long to unwind all this and be such a tedious process, people are going to forget what they ostensibly gained from this pretty soon.
I think the youth in this case correctly saw the truth.
Just because you don't like the status quo doesn't mean that every move away from it is wise.
As for someone will always lose, it's me who's losing. So I can't get excited over some abstract principle that allegedly won
And there are many good aspects of the EU as well. You make it sound like there are none.
DeleteAccess to the markets. Now you need a visa just to visit Europe. As a natural British citizen even I lack the ability to go to the UK now and take a trip to Europe now without all kinds of fuss and muss.
The fact that Europe has had more world wars also should not be ignored.
That everyone from Trump to Putin to Iran loved the choice also hints that it was not such a good one
And the daddies and grand daddies all voted for Brexit. I disagree, there is nothing here for the populist Left to celebrate.
DeleteThat they are just shows to me again how much they live in illusion.
And here's an interesting take from the left on Brexit. https://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/left-case-brexit
ReplyDeleteWell I'm not on the Left-or not the Far Left anyway. I'm moderate Center Left.
DeleteA lot of the Left likes Brexit as does the Right.
I'm sure their next article is the case for Trump.
After all , Trump is anti trade and 'anti intervention' except he doesn't rule out nuclear weapons.
DeleteGet him a Nobel Prize
Moderate center left? Or are you a neoliberal?
DeleteIs Moderate Center Left not a thing? I'm in the tradition of FDR-who always said he was just a little Left of Center, not Far Left.
DeleteHe probably would also qualify as a neoliberal today.
I could just as soon ask are you a Marxist?
I see Nanute and Greg both think Brexit was a good idea. I can't help but notice you guys area both similar demographically.
ReplyDeleteYou're white guys of a certain age who were for Bernie in the primary-or at least sympathetic to him.
Please. I love you guys, I'm just trying to make a point.
I still think if you're not white, you can't be so sanguine in saying 'They were right but for the wrong reasons'
The reason for both Trump and Brexit is xenophobia.
I don't want to understand the xenophobes I want to defeat them.
I want to again insist that what happened in Britain was not in anyway a plea for 'More Keynsianism please' or more deficit spending.
Please don't gloss over the fact that the British have voted anti Keynesian for years.
David Cameron himself ran hard for austerity in 2010. You know that right? Do you know that?
He said 'Britain must not become Greece.'
He was not just all talk and no action either as PM. He has been all about austerity. You know that right? Do you know that?
I ask you twice because I want to be sure you know that.
In 2014, as Simon Wren Lewis writes about, the British public rejected the Keynesian Labour party for a full throated victory for Cameron's austerity a second time.
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2016/06/the-triumph-of-tabloids.html
Again, I wonder if you know that?
Please don't give me the usual progressive canard. Labour lost because they weren't really Keynesian, weren't full throated enough in their call for deficit spending.
The Labour party had recently chosen Jeremy Corby to lead their party, someone who in absolute terms at least is to the Left of Bernie Sanders.
Yet, with the Brexit vote, the sense is that he's in almost as much trouble as Cameron.
He may not be able to lead the party anymore.
A victory for the sorts of policies Greg wants to see would have come with a Corbyn victory.
I think the illusion is the Bernie illusion in the primaries. That there is no such thing as divided public opinion, we just haven't heard Bernie's stump speech yet.
Once we hear him say the words 'Free college' every knee shall bow.
But look at the history of liberal democracies. You never see 90 percent support for any party.
I never said I was in favor of Brexit. I merely sent you a link that made a good case for how the left could benefit from it. (Which you summarily dismissed, derisively.) And I understand the xenophobic aspect of the vote. I think it's dangerous and divisive. Don't dismiss the other side of the equation with regard to austerity. Are you in favor of more domestic spending to alleviate some of the real concerns of those that feel left behind? Or are you a true neoliberal?
ReplyDeleteI never know what this neoliberal thing is about. What policies makes a neoliberal?
DeleteI have always been in favor of more domestic spending.
In doubting this, you have missed my point totally.
My point is positive not normative. It's not about what I'd want to see, but what I think we will see.
I'd support more domestic spending tomorrow in both the US and UK and always have.
But I don't think Brexit is going to make this more likely.
It wasn't done because there is too much domestic spending but because there are too many nonwhite immigrants coming into the country.
Britons seem to love austerity. I'm going by how they vote.
I should amend that. The English love austerity. The Scots and the Irish don't and they may get out of Britain soon.
Note, though, that while the Scots are liberal and want domestic spending they also want to be in the EU.
I didn't dismiss the link. I will read it later. I was just pointing out that I have heard Leftist arguments for Brexit already.
DeleteIt doesn't surprise me as most of those who are on the Hard Left support or are sympathetic to Brext.
Again to much of what you say Greg, I refer you to Yglesias:
ReplyDelete"That one group of establishment policymakers made bad policies is not a good reason to make new, even worse policies."
I agree that the euro system was a disaster. Britain, however, was not on that system. There were maybe some minuses of membership but there were a number of pluses as well.
I also disagree that you think that the EU project is in itself malign. After WWII it very sincerely was about making sure Europe never has another World War.
It has been very successful in this.
Regarding cultural influences, the young people maybe thought of themselves as European and enjoyed taking advantage of that status more than the old people: living and working on the continent and learning other languages, etc. I don't know, that's just speculation.
ReplyDeleteThere's a whole generation of people who've grown up now thinking of themselves that way, and they may feel they've been stabbed in the back by the old crusty less educated stay at home Brits who never cared that much for the continent or things continental.
I prefer my simple theory. The old took revenge on the young. Even at their own disadvantage for no good reason at all-as if revenge ever has a good reason.
ReplyDeleteIt was a psychosomatic illness meant to be fixed