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Sunday, June 19, 2016

Hillary Needs Just One in Eight Battle Ground States to Win

There are many different paths to victory for her. There is one for Donald Trump: the Rust Belt Theory of angry whites who have never voted.

These voters didn't come out in the primary-Trump, contrary to popular belief, did not bring a bunch of new voters into the process. What he did was bring a lot of Republican voters who normally sit the primary out. 

"Hillary Clinton’s super PAC has begun spending $145 million on ads in eight states through November — and there’s a realistic path for her to win the White House even if she carries only one of them."

"It’s a sign of how strongly tilted the Electoral College map is in Clinton’s favor, as she begins a general election campaign building upon the demographic and geographic coalition that President Obama rode to two electoral landslides. Donald Trump, in contrast, must dramatically reimagine and redraw the political landscape to capture the presidency."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hillary-clinton-path-victory-224228#ixzz4C1wvrs7S 


He's been reimagining the map all right. Just in the wrong direction. Romney won Utah by 48 points, W won it by 46 and Trump is basically tied there. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/13/this-new-poll-utah-poll-is-amazingly-bad-for-donald-trump/

But as much as Mormons don't like Hillary Clinton, they apparently really don't like Donald Trump either. 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-mormons-nevada-224504

"Clinton has a multitude of paths, as her allies and advisers see it. Trump has a single route: ginning up disaffected, non-college educated, working-class white voters -- many whom may never have voted before -- to sweep across the Rust Belt, in places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio."

“I don't think he has anything outside a Rust Belt theory,” said another Democratic strategist with close ties to the Clinton campaign. Clinton allies also note that Trump is an “organization-lite” candidate who is driven by message, but, they argue, that is a risky strategy for getting out people who typically don’t vote."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hillary-clinton-path-victory-224228#ixzz4C1yti6FE

It's not like Trump even has a clue how to win a battleground state anyway. If he did he wouldn't be wasting time trying to win NY and California, or going to big rallies in Texas.

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