I have to say this is a relief. After Brexit a lot of folks are saying that if it happened in Britain it can happen here.
Lawrence Summers:
"After Brexit, Trump, Sanders and the misforecast British and Canadian general elections, it should be clear that the term political science is an oxymoron. Political events cannot be reliably predicted by pollsters, pundits or punters. All three groups should have humility going forward. In particular no one should be confident about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election."
http://larrysummers.com/2016/06/24/why-brexit-is-worse-for-europe-than-britain/
I still think that liberals like Josh Barro and Jamelle Bouie are right that the big difference between the UK and the US is white people. The US is much less white and this will make the difference.
I agree that you surely don't want to be complacent. But as Yglesias puts it the antidote to complacency is not panic. Trump can happen but that doesn't mean he likely will happen.
Summers also has a piece where he looks at what he calls Trump Risk. He thinks that the consequences of a Trump victory would be much more severe than Brexit.
"Yet, as great as the risks of Brexit are to the British economy, I believe the risks to the US and global economies of Mr Trump’s election as president are far greater. If he is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months. The damage would be felt far beyond the United States"
http://larrysummers.com/2016/06/06/the-economic-consequences-of-a-trump-win-would-be-severe/
In the past I've joked that if Trump were to win, maybe it's time for me to move back to Britain. Even if I left when I was three years old.
Of course, now that the next PM seems likely to be Nigel Farage, I finally understand what the Berners mean when they say 'The lesser of two evils is still evil.'
Imagine having that 'choice.'
That said, the good news is that Americans seem to understand Summers point as to the threat of a Trump Presidency. They seem to want nothing to do with it.
"Hillary Clinton currently holds a double-digit lead over Donald Trump nationally, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll released Sunday."
"If the election were held today, 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, and 39 percent said they would vote for Trump."
"Respondents overwhelmingly said that Clinton is more qualified to be president and has a better personality and temperament than Trump."
"The poll comes roughly a month after which Trump went after a federal judge for his Mexican heritage, suggesting he couldn’t properly oversee a case on Trump’s defunct real-estate program Trump University, and twp weeks after the nation’s largest mass shooting at Pulse nightclub in Orlando. The polling preceded the Brexit results."
"A plurality of respondents (46 percent) thought Clinton responded to the Orlando attacks in a more appropriate way. Twenty-eight percent of respondents thought Trump did a better job."
"There was also a significant feeling of anxiety among respondents — 70 percent said they were anxious about a Trump presidency, compared to 27 percent who said they would be comfortable with Trump in the Oval Office.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/clinton-trump-polling-washington-post-224806#ixzz4ChEKEMGW
Bryan Caplan argues that voters aren't rational but Americans sound pretty rational about Trump.
Lawrence Summers:
"After Brexit, Trump, Sanders and the misforecast British and Canadian general elections, it should be clear that the term political science is an oxymoron. Political events cannot be reliably predicted by pollsters, pundits or punters. All three groups should have humility going forward. In particular no one should be confident about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election."
http://larrysummers.com/2016/06/24/why-brexit-is-worse-for-europe-than-britain/
I still think that liberals like Josh Barro and Jamelle Bouie are right that the big difference between the UK and the US is white people. The US is much less white and this will make the difference.
I agree that you surely don't want to be complacent. But as Yglesias puts it the antidote to complacency is not panic. Trump can happen but that doesn't mean he likely will happen.
Summers also has a piece where he looks at what he calls Trump Risk. He thinks that the consequences of a Trump victory would be much more severe than Brexit.
"Yet, as great as the risks of Brexit are to the British economy, I believe the risks to the US and global economies of Mr Trump’s election as president are far greater. If he is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months. The damage would be felt far beyond the United States"
http://larrysummers.com/2016/06/06/the-economic-consequences-of-a-trump-win-would-be-severe/
In the past I've joked that if Trump were to win, maybe it's time for me to move back to Britain. Even if I left when I was three years old.
Of course, now that the next PM seems likely to be Nigel Farage, I finally understand what the Berners mean when they say 'The lesser of two evils is still evil.'
Imagine having that 'choice.'
That said, the good news is that Americans seem to understand Summers point as to the threat of a Trump Presidency. They seem to want nothing to do with it.
"Hillary Clinton currently holds a double-digit lead over Donald Trump nationally, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll released Sunday."
"If the election were held today, 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, and 39 percent said they would vote for Trump."
"Respondents overwhelmingly said that Clinton is more qualified to be president and has a better personality and temperament than Trump."
"The poll comes roughly a month after which Trump went after a federal judge for his Mexican heritage, suggesting he couldn’t properly oversee a case on Trump’s defunct real-estate program Trump University, and twp weeks after the nation’s largest mass shooting at Pulse nightclub in Orlando. The polling preceded the Brexit results."
"A plurality of respondents (46 percent) thought Clinton responded to the Orlando attacks in a more appropriate way. Twenty-eight percent of respondents thought Trump did a better job."
"There was also a significant feeling of anxiety among respondents — 70 percent said they were anxious about a Trump presidency, compared to 27 percent who said they would be comfortable with Trump in the Oval Office.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/clinton-trump-polling-washington-post-224806#ixzz4ChEKEMGW
Bryan Caplan argues that voters aren't rational but Americans sound pretty rational about Trump.
In further good news, Americans aren't pining for any third party.
"A majority of respondents aren’t looking at a third alternative, either. Asked if they would consider a third-party candidate, 78 percent of respondents said no. Of those who said “yes,” 12 percent said they would consider someone other than Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson (2 percent) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein."
"The poll was conducted June 20-23, and surveyed 1,001 adults throughout the country. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/clinton-trump-polling-washington-post-224806#ixzz4ChElnRbW
I like that. Americans are Hillary or Bust.
Note that this poll was conducted at least partly after the Trump reboot but before Brexit. It will be interesting to see what effect this might have.
To me it should show how serious the Trump threat is.
"A majority of respondents aren’t looking at a third alternative, either. Asked if they would consider a third-party candidate, 78 percent of respondents said no. Of those who said “yes,” 12 percent said they would consider someone other than Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson (2 percent) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein."
"The poll was conducted June 20-23, and surveyed 1,001 adults throughout the country. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/clinton-trump-polling-washington-post-224806#ixzz4ChElnRbW
I like that. Americans are Hillary or Bust.
Note that this poll was conducted at least partly after the Trump reboot but before Brexit. It will be interesting to see what effect this might have.
To me it should show how serious the Trump threat is.
I saw that this morning and it prompted me to leave this at the end of my last comment at Sumners (actually I'll just reprint my whole comment):
ReplyDelete@Jose,
If they actually do go through with the Brexit (enact Article 50, which has not been done yet, and will not be done for months, because Cameron won’t do it), then I’ll bet you Scotland leaves. N. Ireland isn’t happy either. So no more UK, it’ll just be K. Lol. All that for a chance (and just a chance) at an incremental improvement in their trade laws? Sounds like they were played for chumps by nationalist chest thumpers trying to advance their own careers to me. Frances Coppola (from the UK) agreed with my characterization: a self serving tabloidocracy whipped people into an expensive chaotic frenzy. And for what? If things go sour (like they’re already started to do) those same tabloids might turn on the Brexit pushers to sell a bit more of their product. Plus if you have 2 million angry UK expats living in the EU return home, it’ll be fun to see who they’re going to blame.
On a different topic: suck on this chumptards:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/06/26/National-Politics/Polling/release_428.xml?tid=a_inl
There’s still a sliver of a chance of a #Trexit. More info here:
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/06/24/trexit-ousting-trump-at-the-convention-via-the-gop-rules-committee-just-got-harder/
What to do? For me it’s clear: get the popcorn.
I like my new name for Trump supporters: Chumptards. Lol. I'm sure Art Deco will slam me for that. That guy loves to pick apart everything I write. And it's all negative all the time with him. Even with people he basically agrees with, he does nothing put pick apart what they write. He seems like a very unpleasant person. Of course I'm not winning any personality contests with "Suck on this chumptards" but hey, whatever. =)
DeleteMike, hurry for Leon Wolf at RedState! I find myself agreeing with him more than anyone over there, aside from Ben Howe possible (Howe is actually going to support Clinton). You know how I gave you a long winded run down on the Dobson affair in a previous comment yesterday? (You may not have read it: too long winded). I'll give you a review of the TL;DR version, ranking from lamest to best:
ReplyDeleteSteve Berman: Dr. Dobson got 2nd hand info that Trump has been saved and is now a baby born again Christian. I have infinite respect for the great Dr. Dobson, so I uncynically believe him w/o question as is my Christian duty. But now I'll proceed to play mental gymnastics with why I still won't vote for Trump ... blah blah blah ... and let me conclude that I'm trilled I'll be meeting Mr. Trump in heaven now! Yeah!!!
Erick Erickson: How dare those young punks confuse a great, but old and clearly senile, Dr. Dobson! They are besmirching the reputation of a great man by making it look like he approves of Trump, who is clearly just a con artist.
Susan Wright: Dr. Dobson's statements are very concerning. Yes I have great respect for him and the rest of the evangelical leaders, but by backing an obvious charlatan and telling us he's now a good Christian... well, it's worrisome is all I can say.
And then there's Leon Wolf:
You don't have to be an exceptionally cynical person to believe that Trump is manifestly not a Christian, and is cynically using Christians for his electoral purposes; you just have to be a person with a brain and a passing familiarity with Christianity.
...
The most depressing thing, however, was the spectacle of Trump's meeting last week with so-called "Evangelical" "leaders" who proved that they are really nothing more than professional "Christian" lobbyists who will support Trump because he's promised them crumbs that fall from the table of government power. Probably the most disappointing credulity of all was Dr. James Dobson's statement this weekend: [quotes statement from Dobson on Trump being a new born again Christian]
Give me a freaking break. At what point during this entire sad charade of his campaign has Trump shown the slightest inkling of a change toward more Christ-like behavior? Please, try to maintain some self-respect.
Here's the whole thing:
http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2016/06/26/evangelical-leaders-continue-prove-theres-sucker-born-every-minute/