UPDATE: Benchmark Politics has put SD back in the undecided column for now.
"100% reporting in Minnehaha. We would LIKE to call for Clinton under these circumstances, but we have trouble trusting AP #s in SD right now"
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740379627567206402
The obvious question today was the impact of the AP's announcement last night that Hillary is the nominee. To be sure, that was the worst kept secret for the last two months but, nevertheless, the question begged would it make Hillary bots like me complacent or take the air out of the Berners.
The signs seems to point to the latter rather than the former.
"Many suspected early AP reporting may have favored Sanders in today's contests.. That is clearly not the case."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740350805966880768
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/06/benchmark-politics-cals-nj-for-hillary.html
Hillary won New Jersey by almost 2 to 1.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/06/benchmark-politics-cals-nj-for-hillary.html
And now Benchmark Politics-who have been the most accurate this election season-have called South Dakota for Hillary. This was not expected.
"Clinton's lead expanding in Minnehaha. We are ready to make a call - Clinton is projected to win South Dakota in a major upset."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740367433618202625
She is also looking pretty good in New Mexico though they are still waiting for Santa Fe.
"NM looks safe for Clinton but we want a little Santa Fe first."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740368131789492229
Bernie did win North Dakota in a big landslide but that's one of those tiny caucus events.
At this point, she can afford to lose California by 50 points and still on the strength of pledged delegates alone.
"If current results hold in New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota and South Dakota, Clinton will add 116 pledged delegates from those states (Sanders would get 87), leaving her 99 pledged delegates shy of 2,026, the number required to clinch a pledged delegate majority."
That means Clinton only needs 21 percent of the pledged delegates available in California to hit 2,026. She could lose the state to Sanders by more than 50 percentage points and still come out ahead."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/june-7-new-jersey-california-primary-presidential-election-2016/?ex_cid=promo_banner
Ok Hilary bots. I'm going to watch Hillary's Brooklyn speech now.
"100% reporting in Minnehaha. We would LIKE to call for Clinton under these circumstances, but we have trouble trusting AP #s in SD right now"
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740379627567206402
The obvious question today was the impact of the AP's announcement last night that Hillary is the nominee. To be sure, that was the worst kept secret for the last two months but, nevertheless, the question begged would it make Hillary bots like me complacent or take the air out of the Berners.
The signs seems to point to the latter rather than the former.
"Many suspected early AP reporting may have favored Sanders in today's contests.. That is clearly not the case."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740350805966880768
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/06/benchmark-politics-cals-nj-for-hillary.html
Hillary won New Jersey by almost 2 to 1.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/06/benchmark-politics-cals-nj-for-hillary.html
And now Benchmark Politics-who have been the most accurate this election season-have called South Dakota for Hillary. This was not expected.
"Clinton's lead expanding in Minnehaha. We are ready to make a call - Clinton is projected to win South Dakota in a major upset."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740367433618202625
She is also looking pretty good in New Mexico though they are still waiting for Santa Fe.
"NM looks safe for Clinton but we want a little Santa Fe first."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740368131789492229
Bernie did win North Dakota in a big landslide but that's one of those tiny caucus events.
At this point, she can afford to lose California by 50 points and still on the strength of pledged delegates alone.
"If current results hold in New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota and South Dakota, Clinton will add 116 pledged delegates from those states (Sanders would get 87), leaving her 99 pledged delegates shy of 2,026, the number required to clinch a pledged delegate majority."
That means Clinton only needs 21 percent of the pledged delegates available in California to hit 2,026. She could lose the state to Sanders by more than 50 percentage points and still come out ahead."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/june-7-new-jersey-california-primary-presidential-election-2016/?ex_cid=promo_banner
Ok Hilary bots. I'm going to watch Hillary's Brooklyn speech now.
Mike, I just got back from the polling station and I voted for Big H. Thankfully the ballot here was super simple. I'm glad I re-registered Democrat on May 23 (last day to do so) since the rule is you can only vote in another party's primary if they LET you. The Dems, Greens, Libertarians and one or two others do, but the Republicans: Nope! I just found out today at the poll.
ReplyDeleteThankfully it was a simple ballot this time. I HATE it when there's a dozen judges, school board members and special district members etc, that you have to vote for, and another dozen or more propositions, and state wide and local bond measures. We had a single proposition this time, which seemed pretty straightforward. None of that other crap.
I sometimes find a lone Republican to vote for, and I did this time as well: the Democrat running for our State Senate was the lawyer for my friend's ex-wife during his divorce, and from his stories about how he got effed over, she sounded like a real scum bucket to me. One time I was going to a meeting on the UCSB campus, and I was telling one of my coworkers one of these stories, and no joke I catch out of the corner of my eye this woman I was just bad mouthing (and just voted against tonight) sitting there right behind me at a fold up table handing out pamphlets for something or other. What are the chances? Well anyway, she'll probably win, but that was my protest vote. Democracy in action! Lol.
Anyway, other than that it was pretty straightforward. I was torn between Loretta Sanchez and Kamala Harris for senate (both Democrats... out of a field of 35 candidates from all parties!), but likely the run-off will be between those two in the fall (to fill Barbara Boxer's seat). It'll be nice if that's the case. Also our Democratic house member (Lois Capps) is leaving, so hopefully she'll be replaced by another Democrat as well (I voted for the one that I think has the best chance).
Good job Tom. Yes, I was thinking about the Cali system earlier. Not sure I like this thing of everyone running together...
ReplyDeleteIt's early but Hil is doing very well in CA so far.
She already has this but a win there'd be nice just to shut up Bernie
Re: everyone voting together, I kind of like it so far. In one case (that made the news) the two run off candidates (from somewhere in the state) were Republicans, and they were both actively soliciting votes from independents and Democrats... a spectacle you don't witness too often. It has a more normalizing effect perhaps. I suppose Sanchez and Harris (assuming those are the two) will be doing the same, only going after Republican votes. I talked to my dad this past weekend, and he wanted to know my thoughts on which one... ...I guess he was thinking ahead to the fall, but he was resigned that it would be between them. Imagine if Oklahoma had such a system (the reddest state of them all I think)... and the two run off Republicans had to think about how far to the left to move in order to attract Democrats. It would kind of work against the power of groups like Heritage Action who act as the purity police for GOP candidates now. I'd like to see groups like Heritage Action defanged.
DeleteSomehow I'm not worried about Harris and Sanchez courting Republicans for the general. I don't think either one is an extremist to begin with (unlike someone like Ted Cruz).
Mike, thanks for that info about how the pledged delegate totals work. So 2026 gives her a pledged delegate majority, eh? Interesting.
ReplyDeleteYes, they are saying she's got that already just based on early CA voting.
ReplyDeleteThis takes away Bernie's last narrative that neither of them will have enough pledged delegates. She has the majority of pledged too.
Bernie's last narrative... lol
DeleteSo Mike, how does it work? If Hillary gets 2,026 pledged delegates, she wins no matter what... even if a freak accident kills all the superdelegates in the nation? How about if all the superdelegates ingest bath salts and decide to support Bernie?
DeleteMike, this is good news from 538:
ReplyDeleteIf there’s a House race that’s not getting any attention but maybe should, it’s GOP Rep. Darrell Issa’s seat north of San Diego. National Democrats aren’t eager to play here because Issa is the wealthiest member of Congress and has routinely won reelection by comfortable margins. But Issa is also a high-profile Trump defender on television in a district that may not favor Trump.
In just the past four years, Democrats have cut the GOP’s voter registration advantage by almost half in Issa’s district, California’s 49th. It’s one of the best-educated districts in the state. So far tonight, Issa is taking just 51 percent in early returns in the all-party top-two primary to 45 percent for Democratic attorney and Iraq veteran Doug Applegate.
Even though turnout for the Democratic presidential primary could be driving that closeness, Issa’s showing is below that of several other GOP incumbents considered vulnerable.
That guy is a dick. I hope he goes down in the fall.
Amen. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy
DeleteSure, the guy who's razzed them as the Establishment the whole campaign, refused to raise a cent for them, while his supporters actually protested Hillary's fundraisers to raise money for the party.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Obama, and Biden, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz-Bernie is publicly supporting her opponent out of spite-are going to choose Bernie now when she wins without needing the SDs.