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Thursday, June 9, 2016

Donald Trump Breaks Big Campaign Promise

He will not be self funding after all. Turns out he's just a poor man's Ross Perot.

We've seen lots of hints that he's got nowhere near the $5 billion he's claimed for years-let alone the $10 billion he's now claiming.

Though claiming $10 billion might be smart. Mark Cuban recently argued he has no more than $165 million. Others have noted that he's taken tax breaks that go to those who make less than $500,000 per year.

But the fact that he's now doing the fundraising he said he'd never do-that he's broken his campaign promise to be self-funding-kind of cinches it.

But there's no reason to think he's going to raise anywhere near the money he needs to win.

"Some people think that Trump may not need the money because he's such a master of getting free publicity and air-time, what professionals call "earned media". That's what Trump thinks. He just told Bloomberg: "There’s no reason to raise that. I just don’t think I need nearly as much money as other people need because I get so much publicity. I get so many invitations to be on television. I get so many interviews, if I want them." I don't think that's true. There's a lot more to a campaign than television time. And as I've tried to argue in other contexts, getting on TV doesn't necessarily help you if you're acting like a jackass. In any case, not all campaign spending goes to 30 second ads. A huge amount of money goes to mobilization and voter turnout efforts. (Remember how Trump almost lost the nomination because he had virtually no organization and almost had the thing stolen from him at the state conventions?)"

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/poor-house-donald-strikes-again

I think Yglesias makes a good point here-in the primary just getting a lot of publicity might be a good thing in itself, but it's different in the general.

"Trump's full-scale cable news assault let him dominate the airwaves during the primary and bludgeon his opponents into submission. But reporting by Benjy Sarlin, Katy Tur, and Ali Vitali reveals that Trump barely has any campaign infrastructure at all — no data operation, no team of researchers, no organized group of surrogates, essentially nothing beyond the minimum needed to handle the logistics of Trump's travel and television appearances."

"This is going to hurt Trump increasingly badly as the campaign switches out of a primary season dynamic, where merely getting attention is a win, and into a general election dynamic, where the nature of what people are hearing about you — and who is hearing what — is much more decisive."

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/8/11871254/hillary-bernie-trump

Here's something else no one has noticed: lately, Hillary has been doing better tweets than Trump is. True a lot of it-though not all- is her staff. But I don't agree he's actually winning the Twitter battle anymore.

Again, though, Poor Donald.

Back to Josh Marshall:

"What's the problem? There seem to be three main issues. First is that Trump is starting very,very late. At this point in the cycle Romney had been raising big big dollars for months, with that billion dollar figure as the goal. If Trump got up to Romney's clip today he'd still fall massively short. Second is that the donor class really, really doesn't like Trump (temperamentally, ideologically, etc) and questions why they should open their wallets for another billionaire."

"Here Trump probably wishes he could admit that he's only worth a few hundred million. But whatever ... For all sorts of reasons, the donors aren't terribly inclined to give. And third, Trump doesn't seem either eager to ask for the money or temperamentally capable of doing so."

In typical Trumpian fashion he resolves this by saying and probably believing that he doesn't need the money in the first place.

That's not how this works. The billion dollar figure isn't whipped up out of whole cloth. And it's not just for ads. Absent a GOP wave election, which seems all but unimaginable, this could hurt congressional Republicans quite a bit."

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/poor-house-donald-strikes-again

Congressional GOPers. Talk about an added bonus.

It's all kind of a vicious-though rather virtuous-circle.

Trump’s fundraisers see no chance of hitting $1 billion

Dramatic shortfall expected as donor dismay about their candidate takes a toll.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-donors-billion-224080#ixzz4B4eX7UKs







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