The two theories are:
1. Populism. This is the theory that Trump can win.
2. It's' demographics stupid. This is the Hillary will win theory.
Which one is closer to the truth. For me, certainly number 2.
There are those who are panicking that Hillary is already blowing this. They think populism Trumps demographics. In the Democratic primary, though, demographics has clearly Trumped-can't resist the pun-populism.
If Hillary could ride demographics in the Dem primary why can't she do it in the general? Some want her to be more aspirational-this is a common criticism of Hillary Clinton if you've been watching.
But she was able to ride her pragmatic message through the Dem primary and I can't see why it doesn't sell in the general. She received millions more primary votes than populists Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.
My take is that the general electorate has had enough Trumpism and will ultimately choose the one candidate who will bring us together rather than tear us apart-wether in Bernie's Jihad against the banks for Trump's race war against immigrants, Muslims, and other nonwhite people the world over.
The wager is that the real silent majority this time will be those tired of the endless Jihads of both Left and Right.
Having said all that, it's not clear what Trump offers the famous white working class voters beyond like Jamelle Bouie says, a return to white supremacy.
There are many right now greatly overstating what Trump can give the white working class on an economic basis.
"But Trump is different. He will hit you from the populist far right on immigration and free trade. He will hit you from the far left on the Iraq war, Libya, and Syria. He will directly challenge you on economic policy by supporting an increase in the minimum wage and higher taxes for the wealthy."
http://theweek.com/articles/623410/dear-hillary
I do agree that Trump will offer some potentially new challenges from what GOP candidates usually offer. He does have the ability to attack from the Left on Iraq, Syria, and Libya.
1. Populism. This is the theory that Trump can win.
2. It's' demographics stupid. This is the Hillary will win theory.
Which one is closer to the truth. For me, certainly number 2.
There are those who are panicking that Hillary is already blowing this. They think populism Trumps demographics. In the Democratic primary, though, demographics has clearly Trumped-can't resist the pun-populism.
If Hillary could ride demographics in the Dem primary why can't she do it in the general? Some want her to be more aspirational-this is a common criticism of Hillary Clinton if you've been watching.
But she was able to ride her pragmatic message through the Dem primary and I can't see why it doesn't sell in the general. She received millions more primary votes than populists Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.
My take is that the general electorate has had enough Trumpism and will ultimately choose the one candidate who will bring us together rather than tear us apart-wether in Bernie's Jihad against the banks for Trump's race war against immigrants, Muslims, and other nonwhite people the world over.
The wager is that the real silent majority this time will be those tired of the endless Jihads of both Left and Right.
Having said all that, it's not clear what Trump offers the famous white working class voters beyond like Jamelle Bouie says, a return to white supremacy.
There are many right now greatly overstating what Trump can give the white working class on an economic basis.
"But Trump is different. He will hit you from the populist far right on immigration and free trade. He will hit you from the far left on the Iraq war, Libya, and Syria. He will directly challenge you on economic policy by supporting an increase in the minimum wage and higher taxes for the wealthy."
http://theweek.com/articles/623410/dear-hillary
I do agree that Trump will offer some potentially new challenges from what GOP candidates usually offer. He does have the ability to attack from the Left on Iraq, Syria, and Libya.
But, again, this didn't work for Bernie in the Democratic primary which is a lot more dovish than a general electorate.
And, Trump's own foreign policy views are very scary. He is not ruling out the use of nuclear weapons. He would encourage Japan, South Korea, and presumably other countries to acquire nuclear weapons.
As Hillary says, this cuts against what our goal is: nuclear disarmament.
He also sounds positively Goldwateresque in not ruling out the use of nuclear weapons. Remember when the Goldwaterites tried to convince Americans that maybe nuclear weapons aren't so bad?
Everything Trump says on foreign policy suggests a move away from the multilateral postwar world that has kept the peace at least. When you consider the history of Europe the last 71 years have been astonishing.
And he has not offered a rise in the minimum wage or raising taxes on the wealthy.
1. He's been all over the place on the MW but what he has said he thinks wages are too high and that the federal minimum wage should be abolished. Don't tell me this isn't what he really means.
Every other politician is held to what they actually say, not what they might mean. Trump doesn't get to play by other rules. Like it's been said 'When someone tells you who they are you believe them.'
The idea that Americans should just roll the dice that maybe he doesn't mean most of what he's saying is absurdly irresponsible.
2. Same thing on raising taxes on the wealthy. The most he has said is that the final tax bill he passed might have less tax cuts for the wealthy than his current-absurd-plan which cuts the wealthy's taxes so deeply it would explode the deficit by $12 trillion dollars.
I guess the real worry is that someone like Damon Linder-the writer of the piece-is already being tricked by Trump. He's ascribing generous ideas to Trump that he has never proposed.
Hopefully the public is sharper than Linder.
On the other side of the spectrum, you have writers like Michael Cohen and Jamelle Bouie telling liberals to stop freaking out. Here is Cohen:
"But what about all those angry white voters?"
"I was getting to that. Back in 2012, Romney won whites by 20 points over Obama. According to the most recent CNN poll, Trump leads Clinton by 9 points among whites. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he’s unbelievably unpopular with female voters. One poll from mid-April shows him with a 75 percent unfavorable rating among all women . . . 75 percent! That’s insanely high."
"Trump might have some appeal among working class white men, but the members of that cohort that like Trump are (a) already Republican and (b) were already going to vote for whomever the Republican Party nominates. It’s also important to keep in mind that in 2012, a guy named Barack Hussein Obama won working-class whites in the Midwest. He won them in the Northeast states, where Trump is allegedly quite popular. Democrats do poorly among white working-class voters in the South. In the rest of the country, they are pretty competitive with this group."
"So at the outset of the campaign, Trump looks likely to do worse among nonwhite voters, worse among women, and worse among whites than Romney. There aren’t too many other places to make up ground when that is your starting point."
"That all makes sense, but I remember everyone telling me that Trump couldn’t win the Republican nomination, and he did. Why can’t he do the same thing in the national election?"
"Well not everyone said he couldn’t win! But the Republican electorate is not like the rest of America. According to the most recent, YouGov/Economist poll, Trump has a 62 percent favorability rating among Republicans."
"But among Democrats, he’s as popular as a mosquito at a nudist’s colony. Trump has a “very unfavorable” rating of 73 percent. Only 9 percent view him “somewhat unfavorably.” Among independents, 49 percent have a “very unfavorable’’ view; only 11 percent fall into the “somewhat unfavorable” category. So it’s not that non-Republican voters don’t like Trump — they can’t stand him. And they’ve felt this way about him for the entire campaign."
"Even many Republicans don’t like Trump. His unfavorable rating is 37 percent, which includes a 21 percent “very unfavorable’’ rating. This might be his biggest problem. If a sizable chunk of Republicans stay home or even vote for Clinton — and it could be as little as 15 percent — he’s got no shot."
http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/05/10/dear-liberals-stop-panicking-over-trump/NyypLSqb18xkfnrXxEdNWM/story.html?event=event12
I agree with Cohen.
And, Trump's own foreign policy views are very scary. He is not ruling out the use of nuclear weapons. He would encourage Japan, South Korea, and presumably other countries to acquire nuclear weapons.
As Hillary says, this cuts against what our goal is: nuclear disarmament.
He also sounds positively Goldwateresque in not ruling out the use of nuclear weapons. Remember when the Goldwaterites tried to convince Americans that maybe nuclear weapons aren't so bad?
Everything Trump says on foreign policy suggests a move away from the multilateral postwar world that has kept the peace at least. When you consider the history of Europe the last 71 years have been astonishing.
And he has not offered a rise in the minimum wage or raising taxes on the wealthy.
1. He's been all over the place on the MW but what he has said he thinks wages are too high and that the federal minimum wage should be abolished. Don't tell me this isn't what he really means.
Every other politician is held to what they actually say, not what they might mean. Trump doesn't get to play by other rules. Like it's been said 'When someone tells you who they are you believe them.'
The idea that Americans should just roll the dice that maybe he doesn't mean most of what he's saying is absurdly irresponsible.
2. Same thing on raising taxes on the wealthy. The most he has said is that the final tax bill he passed might have less tax cuts for the wealthy than his current-absurd-plan which cuts the wealthy's taxes so deeply it would explode the deficit by $12 trillion dollars.
I guess the real worry is that someone like Damon Linder-the writer of the piece-is already being tricked by Trump. He's ascribing generous ideas to Trump that he has never proposed.
Hopefully the public is sharper than Linder.
On the other side of the spectrum, you have writers like Michael Cohen and Jamelle Bouie telling liberals to stop freaking out. Here is Cohen:
"But what about all those angry white voters?"
"I was getting to that. Back in 2012, Romney won whites by 20 points over Obama. According to the most recent CNN poll, Trump leads Clinton by 9 points among whites. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he’s unbelievably unpopular with female voters. One poll from mid-April shows him with a 75 percent unfavorable rating among all women . . . 75 percent! That’s insanely high."
"Trump might have some appeal among working class white men, but the members of that cohort that like Trump are (a) already Republican and (b) were already going to vote for whomever the Republican Party nominates. It’s also important to keep in mind that in 2012, a guy named Barack Hussein Obama won working-class whites in the Midwest. He won them in the Northeast states, where Trump is allegedly quite popular. Democrats do poorly among white working-class voters in the South. In the rest of the country, they are pretty competitive with this group."
"So at the outset of the campaign, Trump looks likely to do worse among nonwhite voters, worse among women, and worse among whites than Romney. There aren’t too many other places to make up ground when that is your starting point."
"That all makes sense, but I remember everyone telling me that Trump couldn’t win the Republican nomination, and he did. Why can’t he do the same thing in the national election?"
"Well not everyone said he couldn’t win! But the Republican electorate is not like the rest of America. According to the most recent, YouGov/Economist poll, Trump has a 62 percent favorability rating among Republicans."
"But among Democrats, he’s as popular as a mosquito at a nudist’s colony. Trump has a “very unfavorable” rating of 73 percent. Only 9 percent view him “somewhat unfavorably.” Among independents, 49 percent have a “very unfavorable’’ view; only 11 percent fall into the “somewhat unfavorable” category. So it’s not that non-Republican voters don’t like Trump — they can’t stand him. And they’ve felt this way about him for the entire campaign."
"Even many Republicans don’t like Trump. His unfavorable rating is 37 percent, which includes a 21 percent “very unfavorable’’ rating. This might be his biggest problem. If a sizable chunk of Republicans stay home or even vote for Clinton — and it could be as little as 15 percent — he’s got no shot."
http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/05/10/dear-liberals-stop-panicking-over-trump/NyypLSqb18xkfnrXxEdNWM/story.html?event=event12
I agree with Cohen.
I will say this. It's certainly true that Hillary and the Democrats should not be complacent-this is always true in politics or any other big undertakings in life.
As Matt Yglesias recently put it, though, the antidote to complacency is not panic. Indeed, while complacency is bad, panic is actually worse. '
But there is no sign that the Clinton team is complacent.
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