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Friday, May 6, 2016

Paul Ryan and Donald Trump: Party Unity My Ass

As I've been saying since July, 2015, Donald Trump is the best thing to ever happen to Democrats.

With the nomination of Trump to lead the GOP ticket, the Dems now get to play the ultimate 50 state strategy. In all 50 states, Dems running for Congress will be running against Donald Trump.

GOP Congressional candidates will be asked everyday if not every hour, whether they agree or condemn the latest Trump howler.

John McCain. Who ever thought he''d be vulnerable? While he's still considered the favorite to retain his Arizona Senate seat for the sixth straight term, he is in a flatfooted tie in recent polls with a credible Democratic challenger.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/05/this-is-why-im-trump-democrat-reason-759.html

There is some real cruel irony here for McCain. This is the guy who mocked his Vietnam War heroism-'I like heroes who aren't captured, ok?'

McCain privately has admitted Trump hurts his election chances. Yet McCain is endorsing Trump.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/05/politics/john-mccain-jeff-flake-donald-trump/

How wise is this? Someone should ask McCain about Trump's taco way of celebrating Cinco Demayo: eating a taco.

Does McCain think that shows respect for Hispanic voters or not? Interestingly, the junior Senator from Arizona, Jeff Flake, is holding off on a Trump endorsement.

But this is the double bind all GOP elected officials face, especially those running for office-or he will need to run again in the future.

Do you endorse Trump or not? Many of the conservative intelligentsia, from Glenn Beck, to George Will, to Ben Howe, are clearly saying not. It's clear why. Trump has destroyed the conservative intelligentsia.

But for the GOP elected officials there's a tough calculus.

1. If they refuse to endorse him, they are literally throwing their own party's nominee under the bus.

2. However, supporting him tars them with his toxicity. This is a man who has refused to repudiate the support of David Duke, who acted as if he's never 'heard of any white supremacists.'

Association with him, much less an endorsement can permanently tar their own reputations. Democrats can always just rebuke them with two words: Donald Trump.

Many will attempt Paul Ryan's strategic ambiguity. Neither endorse or not endorse. Ryan like Morning Joe, says he can't endorse Trump today-but urges him to earn it.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/paul-ryan-says-he-cannot-support-trump-at-this-point-222864

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/paul-ryan-donald-trump-222870

That's some great party unity. Compare this to what the Dems are going to look like once Bernie finally packs up and goes back to Vermont. She's going to have full throated endorsements and support from President Obama, VP Biden, First Lady Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, Elizabeth Warren and many other popular, prominent Dems.

Warren is already tweet-trolling Trump. While the Dems will never be more united, the GOP will never be more divided. You have all these Republicans-Mitt Romney, both George Bushes, Jeb-staying away from the convention.

Of course. To even be physically in that room with that guy, is enough to destroy your reputation for life. Politically speaking, Donald Trump is simply radioactive. So the leading GOPers are smart to stay away.

As Greg Sargent points out, the trouble is that both options with Trump are equally fraught as shown in the divide between Paul Ryan and Reince Priebus:

"This morning on Fox, Donald Trump professed himself “surprised” that House Speaker Paul Ryan has now said he is not yet ready to endorse the Donald. But this isn’t really surprising at all. As a new Politico piece explaining Ryan’s thinking puts it, Ryan was simply trying to bolster his House majority. Declining to embrace Trump will hopefully give House Republicans in the swing districts that will determine how large that majority is next year “a measure of cover from Trump’s unpopularity.”

"But ultimately, what Ryan’s move really shows is that Republicans almost certainly won’t be able to escape the corrosive down-ticket saturation effect that Trump’s toxicity could end up having. At best they may be able to mitigate it, but such mitigating efforts could also have downsides — and therein lies the brutal dilemma Trump’s nomination looks to be inflicting on the Republican Party."

"This problem is neatly captured by the fact that RNC chair Reince Priebus is offering a dramatically different take from Ryan on how down-ticket Republicans should handle Trump. In an interview yesterday, Priebus said that they should embrace Trump, because running from him will ultimately hurt them:

“You can’t do well at the bottom of the ticket if you don’t do well at the top of the ticket. It doesn’t work that way. You can’t lose at the top of the ticket and expect to do great underneath…you have to have a very competitive race at the top that’s victorious if you want to make sure that you keep as many seats as you can in the Senate and the House.”

"Obviously Ryan and Priebus differ on this point because of their differing institutional roles: Ryan is protecting his majority, while Priebus is chair of the whole party. But in a way, they’re both right — and that’s exactly the problem. Ryan is right that if Republicans support Trump, they risk being associated with his reprehensible proposals and verbal outbursts. Ryan wants to protect House Republicans from Trump, because his numbers are absolutely toxic among, well, pretty much all voter groups. But Priebus isalso right in saying that if Republicans distance themselves from Trump, that weakens Trump and brings down the whole ticket — potentially including, of course, them."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/05/06/sorry-republicans-theres-no-escaping-donald-trump/

Yes, they are both right. Ryan is right that Trump can poison down ballot races. But Priebus is right that split tickets are more and more uncommon-only a little over 5 percent of voters split their votes in 2012.

In other words Trump is a lose-lose for the GOP. In other words Trump is a win-win for the Democrats. In other words Donald Trump is the best thing to every happen to the Democratic party.

This is going to give them the kind of bloody shirt to raise that the GOP used to raise on the Dems. Into the 1920s, the GOP was still running against the Dems' implication for the Confederacy in the Civil War.

Finally, the Dems got their own bloody shirt-the Great Depression. Trump is going to be the Dems' bloody shirt for at least a couple of cycles.

1 comment:

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