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Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Resolved: Hillary Clinton is not a Weak Nominee

Steve Kornacki has a nice list comparing her with other Dem winners since 1980-he leaves out Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004, respectively.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki

It's interesting. Going by percentage margin the only candidate do clearly do better than her was her husband in 1992 vs. Jerry Brown.

Bill got 52 percent, Brown got 20 percent. However: that was a three way race most of the way and Paul Tsongas also received 18 percent. So it's more accurate to say Bill won 52-38 than 52-20.

We remember 2008 when her and Obama each got 48 percent. Obama most agree was a once in a generation political talent. Yet she stayed neck and neck with him till the end.

True President Carter beat Ed Kennedy 52-38, but the key is that it was President Carter. That was not such a strong showing considering it was a sitting Presidency and indeed, this did bode poorly for him in the general.

The weakest candidate measured by margin of victory percentage was clearly Walter Mondale. He edged out Gary Hart 38-36. So only two point win.

Even worse, is that Jesse Jackson also got 18 percent which underscores the fact that Mondale actually lost the race if you add Hart and Jackson together. Only a little better than a third of his own party voted for him while over 50 percent voted for Hart or Jackson.

Dukakis had a fairly solid margin over Jackson in 1988 at 42-29. But Dukakis too failed to come close to 50 percent of his own party.

Hillary at 55-43 looks pretty good then. She actually has a higher percentage of Dem voters than anyone, even her husband 1992, or sitting President Jimmy Carter, 1980.

Remember, also, that unlike most of these other candidates, she will actually get a majority of pledged as well as overall delegates.

Anyone who says she's a weak candidate has a weak knowledge of history.

Speaking of fuzzy math, Bob Cesca points out that:

By Bernie's and Cenk's logic, the next president WILL NOT be elected in November. Wait until December when the electoral college convenes."

https://twitter.com/bobcesca_go/status/739995041016348673

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