Bernie's lost his leverage and wonders how to get it back.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/06/bernie-doesnt-understand-what-leverage.html
Part of the trouble is he doesn't get what leverage is and what gives it to you. He was a distant second in the primary and so his leverage is going to keep becoming less.
True, Hillary wants his voters and right now about 25 percent are refusing to vote for her.
But the answer to this is Rasmussen. When Rasmussen of all polls shows her up by 5 points against Trump-before a lot of the Bernie supporters have come over-it isn't clear she needs them all that much.
In polls since she finished things off in California, on June 8, she has lead Trump by an average of 7.5 percent.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Again, this is before a lot of the Bernie supporters come over. Over time, probably more will. So she doesn't need to sweat it that much.
As for favorability, a lot has been made about Hillary's numbers being upside down. As I've argued in the past the things to keep in mind is:
1. The numbers are not static. Her numbers have had many ebbs and flows in 25 years in national public life. When she was Secretary of State she had a 64 percent approval rating. Ok, so now it's 43 percent.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating
Is it impossible that of the 21 percent who used to see her positively at least a significant number can come back?
2. We're living in a very partisan error. During the time when she was popular as Obama's SOS, he himself as not so popular. Indeed, her numbers are somewhat similar now to what his were until this year.
When you are a partisan figure running for office, you are less popular. When you're a new candidate, sometimes you get the benefit of the doubt. As Hillary is so well known, in some ways she gets the numbers of an incumbent.
But again, this is not necessarily permanent. Any number of things can and probably will raise her numbers again.
3. Anyway, her opponent is Donald Trump who is now flirting with a 70 percent disapproval rating.
"In 2016’s race to the bottom, Donald Trump is going to find out if you can become president when two-thirds of Americans don’t like you — and a majority can’t stand you."
"Recent polls have showed Trump’s unfavorable rating spiking again, after a brief improvement last month. That’s also coincided with a slide in national horse-race polls, which now unanimously show Hillary Clinton leading the presumptive Republican nominee. Clinton is also more unpopular than past nominees, but her negatives are neither as wide nor as deep as the broadly detested Trump."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-unfavorable-polls-224454#ixzz4Bq1ZQxmU
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/06/bernie-doesnt-understand-what-leverage.html
Part of the trouble is he doesn't get what leverage is and what gives it to you. He was a distant second in the primary and so his leverage is going to keep becoming less.
True, Hillary wants his voters and right now about 25 percent are refusing to vote for her.
But the answer to this is Rasmussen. When Rasmussen of all polls shows her up by 5 points against Trump-before a lot of the Bernie supporters have come over-it isn't clear she needs them all that much.
In polls since she finished things off in California, on June 8, she has lead Trump by an average of 7.5 percent.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Again, this is before a lot of the Bernie supporters come over. Over time, probably more will. So she doesn't need to sweat it that much.
As for favorability, a lot has been made about Hillary's numbers being upside down. As I've argued in the past the things to keep in mind is:
1. The numbers are not static. Her numbers have had many ebbs and flows in 25 years in national public life. When she was Secretary of State she had a 64 percent approval rating. Ok, so now it's 43 percent.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating
Is it impossible that of the 21 percent who used to see her positively at least a significant number can come back?
2. We're living in a very partisan error. During the time when she was popular as Obama's SOS, he himself as not so popular. Indeed, her numbers are somewhat similar now to what his were until this year.
When you are a partisan figure running for office, you are less popular. When you're a new candidate, sometimes you get the benefit of the doubt. As Hillary is so well known, in some ways she gets the numbers of an incumbent.
But again, this is not necessarily permanent. Any number of things can and probably will raise her numbers again.
3. Anyway, her opponent is Donald Trump who is now flirting with a 70 percent disapproval rating.
"In 2016’s race to the bottom, Donald Trump is going to find out if you can become president when two-thirds of Americans don’t like you — and a majority can’t stand you."
"Recent polls have showed Trump’s unfavorable rating spiking again, after a brief improvement last month. That’s also coincided with a slide in national horse-race polls, which now unanimously show Hillary Clinton leading the presumptive Republican nominee. Clinton is also more unpopular than past nominees, but her negatives are neither as wide nor as deep as the broadly detested Trump."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-unfavorable-polls-224454#ixzz4Bq1ZQxmU
While as I argue, Hillary's numbers can and probably will rise again-maybe even sooner than you might think-it's hard to see Trump's rising as he refuses to ever making a mistake or changing course.
I think what will in retrospect look like a very important move for Hillary was when she gave that strong anti Trump speech June 2 in San Diego.
For one thing it shut up the idea that she wasn't tough enough for a street brawl.
It also made the crucial point that Trump is not just another nominee who you're free to agree with on some policies and disagree on others.
He is someone with no respect for democratic norms, someone who admires dictators, who doesn't know much but thinks he knows everything.
As even the Hillary bashing Ryan Cooper agrees, Trump must be defeated:
"One can argue about the best way to defeat Trump. But it is beyond question that he must lose. It must be demonstrated that Trumpism does not pay electoral dividends. He must be crushed beyond recognition. His name should go down in history as the most ludicrous, humiliating failure in the history of American presidential politics, so that his great-great grandchildren change their names in shame."
http://theweek.com/articles/630092/donald-trump-worst-president-american-history
In terms of how to defeat Trump I think Hillary found something really important in insisting not just that Trump is wrong on taxes, gun control, or abortion, but that he represents an existential threat to the very character of the nation.
She was right to do this: the key is not to ever allow him to become a normalized choice. This has not happened and I think her speech was the start of this.
I think what will in retrospect look like a very important move for Hillary was when she gave that strong anti Trump speech June 2 in San Diego.
For one thing it shut up the idea that she wasn't tough enough for a street brawl.
It also made the crucial point that Trump is not just another nominee who you're free to agree with on some policies and disagree on others.
He is someone with no respect for democratic norms, someone who admires dictators, who doesn't know much but thinks he knows everything.
As even the Hillary bashing Ryan Cooper agrees, Trump must be defeated:
"One can argue about the best way to defeat Trump. But it is beyond question that he must lose. It must be demonstrated that Trumpism does not pay electoral dividends. He must be crushed beyond recognition. His name should go down in history as the most ludicrous, humiliating failure in the history of American presidential politics, so that his great-great grandchildren change their names in shame."
http://theweek.com/articles/630092/donald-trump-worst-president-american-history
In terms of how to defeat Trump I think Hillary found something really important in insisting not just that Trump is wrong on taxes, gun control, or abortion, but that he represents an existential threat to the very character of the nation.
She was right to do this: the key is not to ever allow him to become a normalized choice. This has not happened and I think her speech was the start of this.
I've never been as negative on Bernie as you have Mike, but he's started to really bug me lately. If he really wants to stop Trump like he says, he needs to change course. Like you point out he lost by every measure. I don't understand why that's not penetrating his thick skull. Is he still hoping Clinton gets indicted?
ReplyDeleteAnd see, this shows his problem. When he starts losing the Tom Browns of the world this shows he truly has jumped the shark.
ReplyDeleteThe idea that he has lost leverage and wants it back, shows his cluelessness.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/06/bernie-doesnt-understand-what-leverage.html
You don't get leverage when you lose decisively.
What he is beginning to sound like is a really poor sport.
He also should be careful. She is winning without his blessing which doesn't do great things for his 'leverage' either.
I've noticed a lot of folks like you who never were anti Bernie like I am but are saying now we had an election and the voters made their choice, so when does Bernie just respect that?