What you notice is that the same people who insisted Trump had no chance in the primary, are now isnisting that he has a decent chance now.
They seem to be adjusting their view, yet they were wrong in the primary and they're wrong now.
"Over the course of the Republican primary, Donald Trump made a series of inflammatory and bizarre statements, and in each case some pundits predicted the remarks would prove fatal to his campaign. In fact, those statements did nothing to dim his appeal to the plurality of Republicans who supported him. And they helped him continue to dominate media coverage in a way that made it difficult for anyone else to break through. Having won the nomination, a bit of a counter-conventional wisdom began to emerge holding that Trump is some kind of strategic mastermind whose bizarre statements don’t hurt him because they are like catnip to his supporters."
"But just as the old CW that Trump’s rants would hurt him is wrong, the new CW is also wrong. Trump’s unfavorables are sky-high and rising. A general election is different from a primary in fundamental ways, and what helped him win the primary is going to hurt him between now and November. Indeed, one main reason earlier nominees didn't pursue Trump’s route to victory is precisely because they knew this. Trump's attacks on the Mexican ancestry of a federal judge, for example, are viewed as racist and wrong by most Americans."
"If you actually want to become president, campaigning à la Trump doesn’t work — which is what left the path wide open for him."
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/16/11940574/trump-method-madness
Right, the only way it could work is if you were truly able to accomplish Mitt Romney's etch a sketch where you simply shake the thing and start over once the general starts.
It would have been very tough if not impossible for Trump to pull that off. Sort of like that time George Constanza on Seinfeld quit in front of everyone at a board meeting and called his boss a total idiot and loser and then tried to show up on Monday morning and said 'That? You took that seriously? I was just kidding.'
But Trump hasn't even tried.
Meanwhile Scott Adams hasn't made that adjustment. He still thinks Trump is a Master Persuader.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/145961268126/persuasion-think-ahead
This is why, though Adams and I both early on gave Trump a real shot at winning the primary, we don't agree now.
Our reasoning was different.
1. He thinks Trump is a Master Persuader.
2. I just think the Republican party is a joke. Such a joke that a joke like Donald Trump could take it over.
Adams has had to admit that Hillary's team is not doing such a bad job at the persuasion game in convincing everyone that Trump is a dangerous, racist, dictator.
It has been persuasive enough that he now finishes his every post with a clear statement of endorsement for Hillary Clinton.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/06/hillary-persuades-scott-adams-to.html
But this would suggest that she's already been pretty effective if even he is now scared enough-of being seen as Goebbels-that he endorses her at the end of every piece less he get this tag?
Basically Trump's strategy was brilliant for the primary but it has no answer for the general. In reality it could never work as even if he started acting totally normal tomorrow-assuming this were possible for him-no one's simply going to forget what he said in the primary anymore than George Constanza's boss forgot what he had said Friday afternoon.
They seem to be adjusting their view, yet they were wrong in the primary and they're wrong now.
"Over the course of the Republican primary, Donald Trump made a series of inflammatory and bizarre statements, and in each case some pundits predicted the remarks would prove fatal to his campaign. In fact, those statements did nothing to dim his appeal to the plurality of Republicans who supported him. And they helped him continue to dominate media coverage in a way that made it difficult for anyone else to break through. Having won the nomination, a bit of a counter-conventional wisdom began to emerge holding that Trump is some kind of strategic mastermind whose bizarre statements don’t hurt him because they are like catnip to his supporters."
"But just as the old CW that Trump’s rants would hurt him is wrong, the new CW is also wrong. Trump’s unfavorables are sky-high and rising. A general election is different from a primary in fundamental ways, and what helped him win the primary is going to hurt him between now and November. Indeed, one main reason earlier nominees didn't pursue Trump’s route to victory is precisely because they knew this. Trump's attacks on the Mexican ancestry of a federal judge, for example, are viewed as racist and wrong by most Americans."
"If you actually want to become president, campaigning à la Trump doesn’t work — which is what left the path wide open for him."
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/16/11940574/trump-method-madness
Right, the only way it could work is if you were truly able to accomplish Mitt Romney's etch a sketch where you simply shake the thing and start over once the general starts.
It would have been very tough if not impossible for Trump to pull that off. Sort of like that time George Constanza on Seinfeld quit in front of everyone at a board meeting and called his boss a total idiot and loser and then tried to show up on Monday morning and said 'That? You took that seriously? I was just kidding.'
But Trump hasn't even tried.
Meanwhile Scott Adams hasn't made that adjustment. He still thinks Trump is a Master Persuader.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/145961268126/persuasion-think-ahead
This is why, though Adams and I both early on gave Trump a real shot at winning the primary, we don't agree now.
Our reasoning was different.
1. He thinks Trump is a Master Persuader.
2. I just think the Republican party is a joke. Such a joke that a joke like Donald Trump could take it over.
Adams has had to admit that Hillary's team is not doing such a bad job at the persuasion game in convincing everyone that Trump is a dangerous, racist, dictator.
It has been persuasive enough that he now finishes his every post with a clear statement of endorsement for Hillary Clinton.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/06/hillary-persuades-scott-adams-to.html
But this would suggest that she's already been pretty effective if even he is now scared enough-of being seen as Goebbels-that he endorses her at the end of every piece less he get this tag?
Basically Trump's strategy was brilliant for the primary but it has no answer for the general. In reality it could never work as even if he started acting totally normal tomorrow-assuming this were possible for him-no one's simply going to forget what he said in the primary anymore than George Constanza's boss forgot what he had said Friday afternoon.
Adams believes in the power of hypnosis. I think you have to be willing to be hypnotized and already believe it works for it to really work. (There's a chapter in Feynman's book "Surely You're Joking..." that discusses him encountering a hypnotist. I forgot how it turns out, but my vague memory is it didn't work on him, or they wouldn't let him volunteer to begin with (too skeptical)... something like that). Perhaps Adams' view is colored by his views on hypnosis. Perhaps the GOP electorate is willing to be hypnotized.
ReplyDeleteYou know my views on faith. Basically I think it means you're eager to fool yourself. Maybe there's a commonality between those eager to fool themselves and the GOP base.