Greg is a long term reader, who am of course very grateful for. He and I have mostly been on the same page until this Democratic primary.
There have been articles written about how the Dem primary has killed off friendships. Two of my long time readers-Greg and Nanute-have been on the other side of me in the primary.
Nanute, a fellow New Yorker, voted for Bernie while I voted for Hillary. We had a bet where the guy with the winning candidate treats the guy with the losing candidate for dinner at Popeyes.
I have to say that was a very enjoyable lunch! LOL
Greg also has liked Bernie a lot more than I do. He has taken pains to emphasize that he's not an unthinking Berner, but he is not a huge fan of Hillary's-he feels that she doesn't represent change.
Maybe. But folks should remember that change isn't necessarily good. Some will say it's not fair to bring up Hitler, but the fact is that:
1. Hitler represented very real change compared with what had come before
2. Was democratically elected. That is another similarity between Hitler and Trump. Trump, like Hitler in 1933 is running in the democratic process to be dictator of the country.
What is amazing about this election is that democracy itself is on the ballot. Americans will have the choice to vote against democracy itself with a vote for Trump. This has nothing to do, by the way, with whether you even agree with his policies or not; but what are those policies? Those who say maybe he won't be so bad are presuming that he doesn't really mean he'd do a Muslim ban or deport 11 million people.
Ok, the Constitution might not let him do these things outright, overnight. But there are any number of steps he could do short of that, steps that would truly be chilling, through executive order. Even if you couldn't really deport 11 million overnight, there are many things you could do, short of that, to get you in that direction via executive power.
Ok, maybe the military disobeys him, or he's impeached.
But why exactly would you even want to take such chances, to have your fate tied up in the judgment of the CIA to disobey Trump's wild edicts?
For more on how liberalism itself is on the ballot, see this great piece by Shadi Hamid.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/trump-president-illiberal-democracy/481494/
Donald Trump is running as an iliberal democrat.
Or as Scott Sumner says-maybe Hillary has bad policies, but at least she has policies. Trump is running on 'I'll decide what I'll do later.' Americans are left to trust him that he will do what they want him to do. But what if they guess wrong? Would you jump out of a window on the 100th floor of a NYC skyscraper because you trusted me?
This is something like the choice Trump is asking for form voters.
3. Hitler, like Trump, hated 'bad trade deals' and accused everyone of taking advantage of Germany just as Trump says Americans are being taken advantage of.
Greg and I have managed to maintain our friendship despite disagreeing on Hillary. I have to say that I have a lot of disagreement with this argument he lays out here:
"Im not sure Trump will be obliterated amongst women. I think he has plenty of time to sway enough women and he will probably get as many minorities as the last few GOP candidates."
https://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/05/donald-trump-and-new-50-state-strategy.html?showComment=1463250289272#c3676657788631959044
How exactly? Everything that Trump says seems to show he has exactly the kind of attitude that women hate. He calls women names based on their physical characteristics. He's told female journalists the reason they have their job is because they're beautiful-suggesting this is the only reason.
While he called Bill Clinton a sexual predator, his entire history is of him bragging about being a serial philanderer.
In a new amazing dustup, it turns out he used to pretend he is his own publicist to brag about all the women hot for his bod. In 1992 he-as his 'publicist'-claimed that Marla Maples was begging for him to take her back but that he had moved on.
After she heard this tape, Ms. Maples burst out crying.
There have been articles written about how the Dem primary has killed off friendships. Two of my long time readers-Greg and Nanute-have been on the other side of me in the primary.
Nanute, a fellow New Yorker, voted for Bernie while I voted for Hillary. We had a bet where the guy with the winning candidate treats the guy with the losing candidate for dinner at Popeyes.
I have to say that was a very enjoyable lunch! LOL
Greg also has liked Bernie a lot more than I do. He has taken pains to emphasize that he's not an unthinking Berner, but he is not a huge fan of Hillary's-he feels that she doesn't represent change.
Maybe. But folks should remember that change isn't necessarily good. Some will say it's not fair to bring up Hitler, but the fact is that:
1. Hitler represented very real change compared with what had come before
2. Was democratically elected. That is another similarity between Hitler and Trump. Trump, like Hitler in 1933 is running in the democratic process to be dictator of the country.
What is amazing about this election is that democracy itself is on the ballot. Americans will have the choice to vote against democracy itself with a vote for Trump. This has nothing to do, by the way, with whether you even agree with his policies or not; but what are those policies? Those who say maybe he won't be so bad are presuming that he doesn't really mean he'd do a Muslim ban or deport 11 million people.
Ok, the Constitution might not let him do these things outright, overnight. But there are any number of steps he could do short of that, steps that would truly be chilling, through executive order. Even if you couldn't really deport 11 million overnight, there are many things you could do, short of that, to get you in that direction via executive power.
Ok, maybe the military disobeys him, or he's impeached.
But why exactly would you even want to take such chances, to have your fate tied up in the judgment of the CIA to disobey Trump's wild edicts?
For more on how liberalism itself is on the ballot, see this great piece by Shadi Hamid.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/trump-president-illiberal-democracy/481494/
Donald Trump is running as an iliberal democrat.
Or as Scott Sumner says-maybe Hillary has bad policies, but at least she has policies. Trump is running on 'I'll decide what I'll do later.' Americans are left to trust him that he will do what they want him to do. But what if they guess wrong? Would you jump out of a window on the 100th floor of a NYC skyscraper because you trusted me?
This is something like the choice Trump is asking for form voters.
3. Hitler, like Trump, hated 'bad trade deals' and accused everyone of taking advantage of Germany just as Trump says Americans are being taken advantage of.
Greg and I have managed to maintain our friendship despite disagreeing on Hillary. I have to say that I have a lot of disagreement with this argument he lays out here:
"Im not sure Trump will be obliterated amongst women. I think he has plenty of time to sway enough women and he will probably get as many minorities as the last few GOP candidates."
https://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/05/donald-trump-and-new-50-state-strategy.html?showComment=1463250289272#c3676657788631959044
How exactly? Everything that Trump says seems to show he has exactly the kind of attitude that women hate. He calls women names based on their physical characteristics. He's told female journalists the reason they have their job is because they're beautiful-suggesting this is the only reason.
While he called Bill Clinton a sexual predator, his entire history is of him bragging about being a serial philanderer.
In a new amazing dustup, it turns out he used to pretend he is his own publicist to brag about all the women hot for his bod. In 1992 he-as his 'publicist'-claimed that Marla Maples was begging for him to take her back but that he had moved on.
After she heard this tape, Ms. Maples burst out crying.
I'd love for Greg or anyone else to explain what it is about Trump that makes him in any way appealing to most women?
Current polls have him at 74 percent disapproval among women. I don't see anything he can do to change that markedly.
Maybe when they hear him boast about his penis size this will make them reconsider.
Beyond this, Greg is dismissing the possibility that at least some women consider it change, indeed aspirational, to finally have a female POTUS.
"The problem with Hillary is that she has about 30% of the voting public that loves her and the rest don't really find her appealing. Many will tolerate her but another 30% cannot stand her. Trump has fewer that love him but I also think there are fewer that cant stand him. Many of the same people that cant stand Hillary also cant stand Trump. I think there might be fewer liberals who cant stand Trump than there are conservatives. A lot of the people who cant stand either will probably pull for Donald if they pull because he's a white male, almost none will pull for Hillary."
Again, some women will be happy to be able to pull the lever for a woman President, just as many AA voters were happy to pull for the first black President in 2008.
I disagree about him getting the same as Romney among minorities. The polls right now are showing him doing considerably worse than Romney's numbers among Latinos. That is really saying something. The GOP can't win the WH again if they can't figure out how to get in the high 30s at least among Latino voters.
I do not think Donald Trump is going to the trick. Romney's 26 percent was way too low, and the polls show that Greg is mistaken-Trump's numbers at present are much worse than Romney's in 2012; and, again, Romney's numbers were terrible.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/poll-trump-poised-get-lowest-vote-ever-among-latinos-n559741
The assumption seems to be that Trump does better among white voters, and no worse among women of POC-considering Trump's statements and policy proposals-such as these are-this is very doubtful.
"The problem with Hillary is that she has about 30% of the voting public that loves her and the rest don't really find her appealing. Many will tolerate her but another 30% cannot stand her. Trump has fewer that love him but I also think there are fewer that cant stand him. Many of the same people that cant stand Hillary also cant stand Trump. I think there might be fewer liberals who cant stand Trump than there are conservatives. A lot of the people who cant stand either will probably pull for Donald if they pull because he's a white male, almost none will pull for Hillary."
I think some of this may be based on Greg's own experience in Georgia. Nationally, I don't agree that there are more people who can't stand Hillary than Trump. You should watch some of the protesters Trump gets at his rallies before you suggest that a lot of people can't stand him.
Current polls have him at 74 percent disapproval among women. I don't see anything he can do to change that markedly.
Maybe when they hear him boast about his penis size this will make them reconsider.
Beyond this, Greg is dismissing the possibility that at least some women consider it change, indeed aspirational, to finally have a female POTUS.
"The problem with Hillary is that she has about 30% of the voting public that loves her and the rest don't really find her appealing. Many will tolerate her but another 30% cannot stand her. Trump has fewer that love him but I also think there are fewer that cant stand him. Many of the same people that cant stand Hillary also cant stand Trump. I think there might be fewer liberals who cant stand Trump than there are conservatives. A lot of the people who cant stand either will probably pull for Donald if they pull because he's a white male, almost none will pull for Hillary."
Again, some women will be happy to be able to pull the lever for a woman President, just as many AA voters were happy to pull for the first black President in 2008.
I disagree about him getting the same as Romney among minorities. The polls right now are showing him doing considerably worse than Romney's numbers among Latinos. That is really saying something. The GOP can't win the WH again if they can't figure out how to get in the high 30s at least among Latino voters.
I do not think Donald Trump is going to the trick. Romney's 26 percent was way too low, and the polls show that Greg is mistaken-Trump's numbers at present are much worse than Romney's in 2012; and, again, Romney's numbers were terrible.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/poll-trump-poised-get-lowest-vote-ever-among-latinos-n559741
The assumption seems to be that Trump does better among white voters, and no worse among women of POC-considering Trump's statements and policy proposals-such as these are-this is very doubtful.
"The problem with Hillary is that she has about 30% of the voting public that loves her and the rest don't really find her appealing. Many will tolerate her but another 30% cannot stand her. Trump has fewer that love him but I also think there are fewer that cant stand him. Many of the same people that cant stand Hillary also cant stand Trump. I think there might be fewer liberals who cant stand Trump than there are conservatives. A lot of the people who cant stand either will probably pull for Donald if they pull because he's a white male, almost none will pull for Hillary."
I think some of this may be based on Greg's own experience in Georgia. Nationally, I don't agree that there are more people who can't stand Hillary than Trump. You should watch some of the protesters Trump gets at his rallies before you suggest that a lot of people can't stand him.
The Latinos groups can't stand him. They are very motivated by making sure that Donald Trump not be the next POTUS.
As for black voters, this is the guy whose NY properties fell afoul the Federal Housing Laws-as his buildings refused to rent to blacks.
"As Ive said before, I think a Trump presidency will be worse for conservatives than for liberals because he will upset the apple cart and the apple cart is owned by conservatives for the most part."
That I disagree with. I guess you have to qualify who you mean by 'liberals.' If you mean the very ideological Bernie voters-those who say Bernie or Bust-maybe that's true.
"As Ive said before, I think a Trump presidency will be worse for conservatives than for liberals because he will upset the apple cart and the apple cart is owned by conservatives for the most part."
That I disagree with. I guess you have to qualify who you mean by 'liberals.' If you mean the very ideological Bernie voters-those who say Bernie or Bust-maybe that's true.
They are willing to roll the dice on anything to avoid Hillary winning the Presidency. They are ok with a candidate like Trump who is on the record with some of the most racist policy proposals since the end of segregation and who is not running to be President but First Dictator just to vindictively gloat that Hillary never got to be POTUS.
It's true that Trump would be bad news for ideological conservatives. I said at the start Trump is preferable to a Marco Rubio type-mostly because Rubio could win, but partly because it would really throw a monkey wrench into the GOP.
Still, a Trump Presidency would be a very worrisome, uncertain thing. You'd like your confidence in the fate of the nation to be about more than 'Surely the army will take him out if he goes too far.'
Meanwhile, there are four potential SJC picks coming up that I sure wouldn't want to entrust Donald Trump with filling.
It's true that Trump would be bad news for ideological conservatives. I said at the start Trump is preferable to a Marco Rubio type-mostly because Rubio could win, but partly because it would really throw a monkey wrench into the GOP.
Still, a Trump Presidency would be a very worrisome, uncertain thing. You'd like your confidence in the fate of the nation to be about more than 'Surely the army will take him out if he goes too far.'
Meanwhile, there are four potential SJC picks coming up that I sure wouldn't want to entrust Donald Trump with filling.
"I am not looking forward to the next six months only because the prospect of a Hillary presidency is driving a lot of the people down here absolutely batshit crazy, but I smile a little inside when I think how things will actually be for them if Trump actually wins. A GOP president who actually blames W for the troubles in the middle east, thinks businesses should not be carrying the burden of insuring their employees health and agrees with Bernie that a lot of the financial wizards are worthless scums not doing productive work."
Does he really agree with Bernie? Trump says he wants to do away with Dodd-Frank.
I want to be very clear. Trump is in no way a 'progressive.'
No matter what Hillary ever does, the Berners will never give her an ounce of credit. She has come forward with some very strong liberal proposals this week in terms of the public option, expanding Medicare, and pushing for more diversity at the Fed. She also supports President Obama's strong executive action for the rights of trans students at public schools.
Still, the Berners never adjust their view of her one iota. I really do wonder if there are some 'liberals' who would vote for Hitler sooner than Hillary Clinton.
It's more than just she's not progressive enough in their mind. She's literally the most unprogressive person ever to walk the earth.
No matter what Hillary ever does, the Berners will never give her an ounce of credit. She has come forward with some very strong liberal proposals this week in terms of the public option, expanding Medicare, and pushing for more diversity at the Fed. She also supports President Obama's strong executive action for the rights of trans students at public schools.
Still, the Berners never adjust their view of her one iota. I really do wonder if there are some 'liberals' who would vote for Hitler sooner than Hillary Clinton.
It's more than just she's not progressive enough in their mind. She's literally the most unprogressive person ever to walk the earth.
Hillary supports a $12 federal MW. So she's a 'fake progressive' because St. Bernie wants $15. It's $15 or bust. We must have a $15 MW or there's no point raising it at all. There is no benefit for anyone in raising it from its current $7.25 to $12. Better not even bother at all in that case.
So Trump comes out and says
1. Wages are too high and they have to come down
2. That he wants to get rid of the federal MW altogether, and the Berners think maybe Trump is the next best thing to Bernie.
I will say this. Any Bernie supporter that is now saying Trump is a true progressive has forfeited all credibility.
So Trump comes out and says
1. Wages are too high and they have to come down
2. That he wants to get rid of the federal MW altogether, and the Berners think maybe Trump is the next best thing to Bernie.
I will say this. Any Bernie supporter that is now saying Trump is a true progressive has forfeited all credibility.
P.S. I'm not saying Greg is a 'Berner'; Nanute is certainly not a Berner. He says he will vote Hillary in the general.
These are those who say things like 'Bernie or Bust.'
These are those who say things like 'Bernie or Bust.'
UPDATE: Here was a later comment by Greg to qualify his argument:
"Im not assuming that a lot of Bernie supporters go for Trump, some probably will but some will sit out. Most will vote for Hillary."
"In the primaries less then 15% of eligible voters voted for Hillary and Donald combined, Hillary got about 1.5% more mostly cuz she wasn't running against 15 opponents. These are two of the most unpopular nominees ever. Expecting Hillary to mop the floor is silly I think. The overwhelming majority of voters don't like either choice. Trump won't have to move the needle very much to get a victory."
"Ive personally said I don't have a problem with Hillary. I don't love her as a candidate but she is acceptable."
"Again, some of this Hillary hatred seems based on the idea that not only is Hillary not the most progressive Democrat in the world to she's the most anti progressive person to have ever lived?"
"Your talking about intra-party hatred here, Im talking about inter-party hatred, republicans that cant stand her. Mostly SWMs (southern white males), frat boy types who cant stand anything "librul" or "Title IX".
"Im not assuming that a lot of Bernie supporters go for Trump, some probably will but some will sit out. Most will vote for Hillary."
"In the primaries less then 15% of eligible voters voted for Hillary and Donald combined, Hillary got about 1.5% more mostly cuz she wasn't running against 15 opponents. These are two of the most unpopular nominees ever. Expecting Hillary to mop the floor is silly I think. The overwhelming majority of voters don't like either choice. Trump won't have to move the needle very much to get a victory."
"Ive personally said I don't have a problem with Hillary. I don't love her as a candidate but she is acceptable."
"Again, some of this Hillary hatred seems based on the idea that not only is Hillary not the most progressive Democrat in the world to she's the most anti progressive person to have ever lived?"
"Your talking about intra-party hatred here, Im talking about inter-party hatred, republicans that cant stand her. Mostly SWMs (southern white males), frat boy types who cant stand anything "librul" or "Title IX".
Mike,
ReplyDeleteThis primary hasn't killed anything between us, just to be clear, at least not on my end. I don't read and comment as often cuz I just cant do politics the way ESPN does sports. I don't get ANY joy out of examining these things like you do. I don't disagree with your positions nearly as much as you might think except I do think the polls which are saying Trump doesn't have a chance could be wrong.
Trump might punch himself out of this thing but I do think its more likely that he does better than is predicted.
A couple things;
You said---- "I'd love for Greg or anyone else to explain what it is about Trump that makes him in any way appealing to most women?"
Trump doesn't have to be appealing to most women in order to win, he only has to not turn off ALL women. And I know for a fact that every woman I work with will vote Trump (except one) or not vote. I think he will win more of the women vote than is currently being projected, not the majority but better than common wisdom (or common stupidity) currently thinks. Regarding the 74% disapproval amongst women you cite, how many of those ALSO disapprove of Hillary.
Im simply not ready to assume we will have another Clinton president . I would like it at this point but she turns a lot of people off. She represents politics as usual if you consider usual to be since 1992 in the US. Thats 24 years. First time voters haven't lived in world where Hillary Clinton wasn't a political figure of major status on the world stage and ask yourself how many of these folks think our political leaders of the last 20+ yrs bear some responsibility for where our world is now. Then ask how many like where the world is now.
People will not make a decision based on logic and reason. They won't read or hear the political arguments you and others make. Most will decide on gut feelings of who they think will make them safer, stronger and richer. Trump has a chance with enough people to make them think he will be able to do that better than Hillary. This is an argument Scott Adams has been making for a while and I think he might be right. We will see. I hope not. While I feel like I could find some silver linings form a Trump win, I don't WANT it to happen but I am preparing for it.
This is all the inside politics talk I can probably stand for a week or so.
Later
No, Greg, certainly it hasn't killed things on my end. I worry sometimes that maybe I will alienate those who don't agree with me on Hillary-Bernie.
ReplyDeleteYou aren't the only one-there's Nanute. As I wrote, me and him have handled it the right way-a friendly wager over Popeyes.
I do have a few other friends on Twitter where we used to be on the same page with Obama but now we're on the opposite side during this primary.
There are a few there I'm less close to than I used to be.
So I worried that maybe I was alienating you. There have been stories about friendships being destroyed over Hillary-Bernie.
You have reassured me.
Tom Brown was much less enthusiastic about my Hillary-Bernie stuff too-he likes my Republican Hater stuff, but is less passionate about my Democrat Lover stuff.
"Trump doesn't have to be appealing to most women in order to win, he only has to not turn off ALL women. And I know for a fact that every woman I work with will vote Trump (except one) or not vote. I think he will win more of the women vote than is currently being projected, not the majority but better than common wisdom (or common stupidity) currently thinks. Regarding the 74% disapproval amongst women you cite, how many of those ALSO disapprove of Hillary."
ReplyDeleteI do think that this may in part be a function of where you live. I imagine in Georgia most white women hate Hillary.
There are surely many who hate Hillary across the country but it's' not as concentrated.
We will see in this election.
I do agree that Democrats should not be complacent. But I don't think they will be.
The antidote to complacency is not panic as Matt Yglesias says.
"I do think that this may in part be a function of where you live. I imagine in Georgia most white women hate Hillary.
ReplyDeleteThere are surely many who hate Hillary across the country but it's' not as concentrated. "
There is the southern factor but there is also the part about where I work, healthcare. Many healthcare workers hate Hillary.... democrats in general actually and healthcare is a sector that is growing in jobs. Most healthcare workers hear the doctors pushing their politics and fall in line with their thinking.
People who are working as professionals in health care or paraprofessionals hate the prospect of continued Obamacare or god forbid.....single payer!. These people are all across the country and many are women. It could be that an election is not swayed by demographics as much as it is swayed by workers from a particular sector. We will see.