Sunday, September 11, 2016

Trump is Going Backwards

We've had the Beltway absurdly hyping how this is now a very close race. Some cable news pundits even called it 'one of the closet elections ever' which is either very dishonest or very ignorant.

A new Washington Post poll out this morning puts much of this silliness to bed.

Here are some more notable aspects of the poll.

"Some observations from new Post/ABC poll. Looking back vs. same poll in 2012: 9/9/12: Obama +6 RV; +1 LV 9/8/16: Clinton +10 RV; +5 LV"

But I thought she's this awful candidate who's winning by a tenth of a point and is going to lose in a landslide just like Scott Adams predicts.

We hear that she doesn't do well with Bernie voters, but:

"Clinton leads by more with Sanders primary voters (+75) than Trump does with non-Trump primary voters (+68)"

In addition, Obama's high approval numbers bode very well for her

"Obama at his highest job approval (58%) in this poll since July 2009. Yet Trump keeps picking fights w/ him."

Indeed. Matt McDermott:

"ABC/WaPo finds the race unchanged: because it is. Clinton has a stable, comfortable lead and has for a month. Go enjoy your weekend!"

"It's almost as if our President is (in this age of partisanship) beloved, and Hillary Clinton is his obvious successor."

Indeed. Occam's Razor means you should prefer the simplest argument. This is true unless you're the Beltway media.

"8 in 10 likely voters who approve of Pres. Obama in new ABC/WaPo poll back Hillary Clinton

Parenthetically Obama is popular party in the positive contrast with Trump but also partly because last year saw the 99% have their best year in almost two decades-the last 2nd term of a Democratic President-and Americans now feel the best about the economy they have in almost 10 years.

And Hillary is preferred on literally every issue.

"Clinton leads on all issues including trade and immigration, issues Trump has made focal point of his campaign."

Ouch, he's losing on trade. Turns out attacking China and promising a trade war doesn't have the appeal many Beltway pundits believed.

As for immigration, Americans actually feel better about it after listening to Trump for a year and a half.

"More evidence Trump has weakened hardline immigration movement. More say immigrants strengthen society than ever."

Guess, then we can take Matt McDermott's advice:

"ABC/WaPo finds the race unchanged: because it is. Clinton has a stable, comfortable lead and has for a month. Go enjoy your weekend!"

I can enjoy my weekend if Trump's not going to win. But only in that case. 

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