Thursday, September 8, 2016

A 5 Point Swing to Hillary Clinton in a Week

We've heard a lot about this race tightening. It's true the race tightened, though it's less clear that it's still tightening, Indeed, two polls out today suggest the opposite is now happening.

First of all the most Trump friendly pollster out there, LA/USC now shows Hillary up by 2.

Trump usually leads this poll.

In another Trump friendly poll, Rasmussen you see the same thing as there has been a 5 point swing to Hillary in a week. That's about the same as the swing in LA/USC:

"#NEW National @Rasmussen_Poll

"Clinton 43 (+4) 

Trump 39 

Johnson 9 

Stein 2 "

"A 5% shift toward Clinton in a week"

Meanwhile, Trump's swing state map just may be shrinking:

"Two months from Election Day, Donald Trump’s swing state map is shrinking."

"Interviews with more than two dozen Republican operatives, state party officials and elected leaders suggest three of the 11 battleground states identified by POLITICO — Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia — are tilting so heavily toward Hillary Clinton that they're close to unwinnable for the GOP presidential nominee. But Trump remains within striking distance in the remaining eight states, including electoral giants Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania."

"The increasing likelihood that Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia are out of reach heightens the urgency for the Republican nominee to win those still-competitive states — and to recapture steam in Pennsylvania, where he once looked formidable but now trails by 10 points, according to POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average."

Trump’s prospects look dimmest in New Hampshire, the site of his first primary election triumph in February. Republicans remain convinced it’s fundamentally a swing state but at the presidential level, where Trump hasn’t been above 40 percent in public polls since June, many concede the cause is nearly lost."

“I think the probability of Hillary Clinton carrying New Hampshire is well over 90 percent,” said Fergus Cullen, a moderate former chair of the state GOP.

Read more:

I don't know how much PA is genuinely in play as by this same battleground polling average, she's up by 10 there.

So NH is not in the cards. As for Virginia, the good news for Hillary is Trump continues to invest there.

"With just four electoral votes, New Hampshire is the smallest swing-state prize. The prospective loss of Virginia, with its 13 electoral votes, is a bigger problem.

“Anything you’re going to spend on Trump is a waste at this point,” said David Ramadan, a former Virginia House member and GOP activist. “The overall vote is going to be determined by Northern Virginia and the Tidewater area. Those two areas are not going to go on the Trump side.”

"Populous Northern Virginia’s growth is driven by immigrants and college-educated voters — demographics with which Trump has generally struggled."

Read more:

Hillary has a lot of advantages in Virginia and of course, she has Tim Kaine.

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