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Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Was Sunday's No Vote a Shock to Tsipras as Well?

     In my last post I linked to the departing Greek prime minister Varoufakis' blog. He had as always some great comments with his departure from the government.

   "I consider it my duty to help Alexis Tsipras exploit, as he sees fit, the capital that the Greek people granted us through yesterday’s referendum."

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-inimitable-ex-finance-ministert.html

    However, it's a little paradoxical that he's leaving with a no vote when he had initially promised to leave with a yes vote. He also has made some curious comments that 'We have killed our printing presses, there are no more printing presses.'

   There has been a lot of talk from Tsipras haters that he's this buffoon that doesn't know what he's doing. This may or may not be the case. It's true if he truly never has at least giving consideration to Grexit. If his goal is to stay in the euro at whatever cost then he doesn't know what he's doing. 

  A commentator to Tsipras' left a link to this article in he Telegraph, UK paper which if accurate would show that Tsipras truly doesn't know what he's doing-but then neither does the EU. 

  Basically according to the Telegraph, Tsipras was all ready to take the bad deal that got voted down but that the EU wanted him gone. They wanted to crush him. So he complied by putting it up to to vote-that he expected to lose. 

  "Like a tragedy from Euripides, the long struggle between Greece and Europe's creditor powers is reaching a cataclysmic end that nobody planned, nobody seems able to escape, and that threatens to shatter the greater European order in the process."

  "Greek premier Alexis Tsipras never expected to win Sunday's referendum on EMU bail-out terms, let alone to preside over a blazing national revolt against foreign control."
   "He called the snap vote with the expectation - and intention - of losing it. The plan was to put up a good fight, accept honourable defeat, and hand over the keys of the Maximos Mansion, leaving it to others to implement the June 25 "ultimatum" and suffer the opprobrium."

   "This ultimatum came as a shock to the Greek cabinet. They thought they were on the cusp of a deal, bad though it was. Mr Tsipras had already made the decision to acquiesce to austerity demands, recognizing that Syriza had failed to bring about a debtors' cartel of southern EMU states and had seriously misjudged the mood across the eurozone."

    "Instead they were confronted with a text from the creditors that upped the ante, demanding a rise in VAT on tourist hotels from 7pc (de facto) to 23pc at a single stroke."

   "Creditors insisted on further pension cuts of 1pc of GDP by next year and a phase out of welfare assistance (EKAS) for poorer pensioners, even though pensions have already been cut by 44pc."

   "They insisted on fiscal tightening equal to 2pc of GDP in an economy reeling from six years of depression and devastating hysteresis. They offered no debt relief. The Europeans intervened behind the scenes to suppress a report by the International Monetary Fund validating Greece's claim that its debt is "unsustainable". The IMF concluded that the country not only needs a 30pc haircut to restore viability, but also €52bn of fresh money to claw its way out of crisis."

   "They rejected Greek plans to work with the OECD on market reforms, and with the International Labour Organisation on collective bargaining laws. They stuck rigidly to their script, refusing to recognise in any way that their own Dickensian prescriptions have been discredited by economists from across the world."

   "They just didn't want us to sign. They had already decided to push us out," said the now-departed finance minister Yanis Varoufakis."

    "So Syriza called the referendum. To their consternation, they won, igniting the great Greek revolt of 2015, the moment when the people finally issued a primal scream, daubed their war paint, and formed the hoplite phalanx."

    "Mr Tsipras is now trapped by his success. "The referendum has its own dynamic. People will revolt if he comes back from Brussels with a shoddy compromise," said Costas Lapavitsas, a Syriza MP."

    "Tsipras doesn't want to take the path of Grexit, but I think he realizes that this is now what lies straight ahead of him," he said.

    "What should have been a celebration on Sunday night turned into a wake. Mr Tsipras was depressed, dissecting all the errors that Syriza has made since taking power in January, talking into the early hours."

     http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11724924/Europe-is-blowing-itself-apart-over-Greece-and-nobody-can-stop-it.html

    So we now seem hurtling on the fast track towards the Grexit that neither Tsipras nor the EU wanted. The EU could have had a deal but their bottomless arrogance led them to demand more austerity again which Tsipras decided to put up to a vote-so he wouldn't take the political hit.

    If there is a silver lining to this Greek tragedy it's that while Grexit is the result that nobody wanted-including the Greek people-it may end up being the best of all possible worlds at this point.

   http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/lars-christensen-grexit-will-restart.html

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