Pages

Monday, July 20, 2015

Why Did Varoufakis' Game Theory Fail?

     I'd argue because it wasn't tried. From the start Tsipras was not willing to countenance Grexit:

    "Alexis Tsipras should never have hired Yanis Varoufakis as his finance minister. Or he should have listened to him, and kept him on. But instead the Greek prime minister chose the worst of all options. He followed Mr Varoufakis’ advice of rejecting the offer of the creditors — until last week. But having done this, Mr Tsipras committed a critical error by rejecting Mr Varoufakis’ plan B for the moment when the country’s banks closed down: the immediate introduction of a parallel currency — IOUs issues by the Greek state but denominated in euros. A parallel currency would have allowed the Greeks to pay for their daily transactions when cash withdrawals were limited to €60 a day. A total economic collapse would have been avoided."

    "But Mr Tsipras did not go for this, or indeed any other plan B. Instead he capitulated. At that point, he was no longer even in a position to choose a Grexit — a Greek exit from the eurozone. The economic precondition for a smooth departure would have been a primary surplus — before debt service — and an equivalent surplus in the private sector. Greece has no foreign exchange reserves. If the Greeks were to reintroduce the drachma, they would have had to pay for all of their imports with the foreign exchange earnings of their exports. These minimum preconditions were in place in March but not in July."

   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/00765226-2c94-11e5-8613-e7aedbb7bdb7.html#ixzz3gQv8gL00

     Yes, worse of all worlds. Ironically if Tsipras hadn't gone in so clearly desperate to stay in the EU at all costs maybe it might have gotten him a better deal though I wouldn't exactly bet the farm on this premise.

    He had to come in with a Plan B if he was going to talk the talk and he didn't. Now he actually gets Greece a worse deal than before the referendum. As there is no debt relief we're going to end up back here within 3 to 6 months and what then?

   Maybe then Grexit will finally happen-it's clearly where this is headed. But the longer it takes the worse that policy will work. 

   If they are going to leave in 6 months they should have left now as it will be less painful today than in 6 months. Greece has done very poorly with game theory and the reason for that is they thought the EU was a reasonable democratic body when it's anything but. 

   They never got there was only capitulate or Grexit-there is no compromise but stay in. If they understood this in 2011 they could have made either capitulate or Grexit work a lot better than either policy will work going forward. 

   Meanwhile Tripas is going the way of his predecessors-if he had done Grexit this probably wouldn't be happening now. 

. "Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s prime minister, appears to be preparing the nation for a snap general election in September or October after carrying out a government reshuffle that removed dissident ministers from his radical leftist Syriza party."

No comments:

Post a Comment