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Monday, July 20, 2015

If the IMF Believes in Debt Relief Why Don't They Go First?

     Apparently they want the ECB to go first. When they discussed debt relief they didn't have themselves in mind:

   "Greece has begun to repay the 6.25 billion euros ($6.8 billion) it owes to the European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), finance ministry officials told Reuters Monday."

   "However, experts are worried that the next round of bailout talks is skating over one vital subject: Debt relief."

   "According to Reuters, Athens on Monday began paying back 4.2 billion euros in principal and interest to the ECB and 2.05 billion euros in arrears it has owed the IMF since it stopped repaying its debts at the end of June."

   "Talks over the details of a third, 86-billion-euro ($93 billion) bailout for Greece are due to start in earnest on Monday after euro zone parliaments gave them the green light last week."

   "However one thorny topic is likely to dominate discussions: that of debt relief for Greece. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advocated such a move – but the fund's former deputy director told CNBC that it should make the first move."

   "If the IMF is serious about debt relief then the right thing for the IMF to do is to write off its own debt – the debt that Greeks owes the IMF," Ashoka Mody told CNBC Monday. "The IMF has adopted the position that Greece needs debt relief, but somebody else should pay for that."

   http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/20/greece-starts-paying-back-the-ecb-imf.html

   So is some talk that Germany is softening its stance but let's be real. This talk is a mirage unless you have just tuned in to this radio station.

  "Despite this, there were some signs at the weekend that even Germany – Greece's largest euro zone lender -- could be succumbing to growing pressure over debt relief. On Sunday, Chancellor Angela Merkel said in an interview with German broadcaster ARD that discussions over changing the maturities of Greece's debt or reducing interest payments would be possible after the first successful review of the new bailout package."

  "She reiterated that a major debt haircut could not happen within a currency union, however."

   "Despite some apparent softening of Germany's stance towards debt relief, Volker Wieland, one of Merkel's economic advisers who are known as the "wise men," told CNBC on Monday that the chancellor's comments did not signal a change of tack by Germany.

   "I think there can be debt relief in terms of postponing interest but that's a different message from a debt haircut which would involve taxpayers in Europe (losing money)," he told CNBC Europe's "Squawk Box" Monday.

   "I mean the IMF is saying Greece needs relief and they are not volunteering to be the one to say 'enough.' One reason for this might be that the IMF has only come out for debt relief because of the Obama Administration and its Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew."

   "Whatever the case is, the IMF seems no more willing than the ECB or Germany to put its money where its mouth is. All of which likely means we're coming back here again soon, maybe in 3 to 6 months."

   "Mody was critical of lenders' demands on Greece -- a country he likened to being like a "trauma patient."

   "The right thing to do is to have more debt relief and less austerity, but when that penny will drop and how it will drop is an open question. Ultimately, the route being pursued by the IMF, ECB and the Germans is bound to make everyone a loser," he said.

   "The Greek crisis appears to be nearing a resolution, with Greek banks open once again on Monday after three weeks of closures and talk turning to the finer points of an aid package which, it is hoped, will keep the country in the euro zone. But Mody warned that Greece was not out of danger."

  "This program has again, like the last ones, been set up for failure. Greece is essentially like a trauma patient – it's going through a debt deflation cycle where the more debt you pay, the more indebted you become because your incomes fall but the debt burden does not fall as fast," he said.

  "Against the backdrop of such debt dynamics, Mody forecast that Greece's problems would re-emerge in six to nine months' time. "Then we'll begin to see numbers on Greek GDP growth…which will show that: 'Oops, this is not working.' But the 'oops' will be only from those that have constructed this program -- everyone else is predicting it now."

  So right now, if the IMF really believes what it's been saying, it can give Greece $ 2.05 billion euros in debt relief if it really wants to. But does it really want to?

  

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