File this under would be nice-but ain't gonna happen. If the euro continues look for things to go more and more in a pro German direction charted by finance minister Wolfgang Schauble himself
"But some economists say proponents of a “Grexit” have it all wrong: If one country should leave the eurozone, they argue, it is Germany.
"These economists’ basic premise is that Europe’s depressed economies, which include not just Greece, but Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy, would benefit tremendously from a cheaper currency. Devaluing the euro would help boost their exports and even spur domestic spending, as moderate price inflation would prompt consumers to lock in deals at current prices. But currently these mostly southern European countries are stuck with a currency value that is boosted by the inclusion of Germany and other wealthier European countries. High investor demand for a currency that includes the German juggernaut keeps the euro’s value relatively high."
"A German departure from the eurozone and return to the deutsche mark would reduce the euro’s value dramatically, providing Europe’s weaker economies with the cheaper currency they need to restore growth and competitiveness. Princeton economist Ashoka Mody imagines that other wealthy European nations like the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and Finland would leave as well, possibly joining Germany in a new union. Their departures would lower the value of the euro even more, which would further benefit the continent’s weaker economies."
"Germany stands to gain from an exit as well, since the new deutsche mark would be worth substantially more than the euro, enabling German consumers to benefit from cheaper consumer goods."
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/wolfgang-shauble-unveils-fourth-reich.html
The EU is about 2 countries-France and Germany so no way the Germans leave-though if you believe some of Germany's libertarian apologists maybe it should:
"First of all, Mr. Hoppe, thank you for taking the time to give us this interview. You have written in your new book, Der Wettbewerb der Gauner ("The Competition of Crooks"), that "We don't need a European super state, which the European Union is seeking to establish ? but rather a Europe and world consisting of hundreds or even thousands of tiny Liechtensteins and Singapores." Such a trend is not apparent at the moment, rather the opposite. Do things first have to get even worse — politically and economically - , before they get better again?"
"Unfortunately, I'm afraid so. Before that we'll probably have to experience national bankruptcy spreading through Portugal, Spain, Italy and ultimately on to Germany. Only then, I fear, will it become clear to everyone what many people already suspect now: that the EU is nothing but a gigantic machinery of income and wealth redistribution, from Germany and the Netherlands to Greece, Spain, Portugal, and so on. But that's not all. It will also become clear that the same insanity, the same mess, exists even within each individual country: redistribution from Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg to Bremen and Berlin, from Little Town A to Little Village B, from one company or industry to another, from Smith to Jones and so on — and always following the same perverse pattern: redistribution from the more productive countries, regions, places, companies and individuals to those that are less productive or not productive at all. Bankruptcy will bring all of this to light in a dramatic fashion."
"Unfortunately, I'm afraid so. Before that we'll probably have to experience national bankruptcy spreading through Portugal, Spain, Italy and ultimately on to Germany. Only then, I fear, will it become clear to everyone what many people already suspect now: that the EU is nothing but a gigantic machinery of income and wealth redistribution, from Germany and the Netherlands to Greece, Spain, Portugal, and so on. But that's not all. It will also become clear that the same insanity, the same mess, exists even within each individual country: redistribution from Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg to Bremen and Berlin, from Little Town A to Little Village B, from one company or industry to another, from Smith to Jones and so on — and always following the same perverse pattern: redistribution from the more productive countries, regions, places, companies and individuals to those that are less productive or not productive at all. Bankruptcy will bring all of this to light in a dramatic fashion."
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/wolfgang-shauble-unveils-fourth-reich.html
Ok, Germany isn't going anywhere because the politics would never let that happen. But here is the economic argument being made:
"These economists’ basic premise is that Europe’s depressed economies, which include not just Greece, but Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy, would benefit tremendously from a cheaper currency. Devaluing the euro would help boost their exports and even spur domestic spending, as moderate price inflation would prompt consumers to lock in deals at current prices. But currently these mostly southern European countries are stuck with a currency value that is boosted by the inclusion of Germany and other wealthier European countries. High investor demand for a currency that includes the German juggernaut keeps the euro’s value relatively high."
"A German departure from the eurozone and return to the deutsche mark would reduce the euro’s value dramatically, providing Europe’s weaker economies with the cheaper currency they need to restore growth and competitiveness. Princeton economist Ashoka Mody imagines that other wealthy European nations like the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and Finland would leave as well, possibly joining Germany in a new union. Their departures would lower the value of the euro even more, which would further benefit the continent’s weaker economies."
"Germany stands to gain from an exit as well, since the new deutsche mark would be worth substantially more than the euro, enabling German consumers to benefit from cheaper consumer goods."
"A German exit from the euro would make German exports less competitive, but Mody says that by depressing German consumer demand, Germany’s current trade surplus has been damaging to the world economy."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/economists-troll-germany-telling-it-to-leave-the-euro-first_55ad8ae2e4b0caf721b3ae92?
Uh huh! A win-win. Even if this is a good economic argument it makes no difference because of the politics.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/economists-troll-germany-telling-it-to-leave-the-euro-first_55ad8ae2e4b0caf721b3ae92?
Uh huh! A win-win. Even if this is a good economic argument it makes no difference because of the politics.
However, this Huff Post piece does live in the real world and acknowledges that Greece leaving is much more likely.
Grexit seems inevitable-for one reason whether the Greeks accept this or not, the Germans want them gone anyway.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/conversations-between-schauble-and.html
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/wolfgang-shauble-unveils-fourth-reich.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/wolfgang-shauble-unveils-fourth-reich.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29
Here are a few different ways it could play out.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/00765226-2c94-11e5-8613-e7aedbb7bdb7.html#axzz3gLypB9uO
The sooner the Greeks recognize this inevitability the better off they'll be.
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