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Wednesday, July 8, 2015

The Grexit Nobody Wanted

     The Eurocrats didn't want Grexit and Tsipras and his Syrzia government didn't want Grexit but this seems to be where we're going.

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/was-sundays-no-vote-shock-to-tsipras-as.html

   Though it could be for the best.

   http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/lars-christensen-grexit-will-restart.html

   However, if we do have Grexit it seems that both sides are backing in. You can criticize Tsipras for not know what he's doing. According to this very interesting UK article I talked about in the Tsipras link above he seems as dismayed that he 'won' on Sunday as anyone else.

   What should have been a celebration on Sunday night turned into a wake. Mr Tsipras was depressed, dissecting all the errors that Syriza has made since taking power in January, talking into the early hours.

   "The prime minister was reportedly told that the time had come to choose, either he should seize on the momentum of the 61pc landslide vote, and take the fight to the Eurogroup, or yield to the creditor demands - and give up the volatile Mr Varoufakis in the process as a token of good faith."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11724924/Europe-is-blowing-itself-apart-over-Greece-and-nobody-can-stop-it.html

   Though even Varoufakis, the sacrificial lamb, had claimed that 'There are no printing presses, we burnt our printing presses'-he too seemed absolutely wedded to staying on the euro.

   "Syriza has been in utter disarray for 36 hours. On Tuesday, the Greek side turned up for a make-or-break summit in Brussels with no plans at all, even though Germany and its allies warned them at the outset that this is their last chance to avert ejection.

   "The new finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, vaguely offered to come up with something by Wednesday, almost certainly a rejigged version of plans that the creditors have already rejected."

   "Events are now spinning out of control. The banks remain shut. The ECB has maintained its liquidity freeze, and through its inaction is asphyxiating the banking system."

    "Factories are shutting down across the country as stocks of raw materials run out and containers full of vitally-needed imports clog up Greek ports. Companies cannot pay their suppliers because external transfers are blocked. Private scrip currencies are starting to appear as firms retreat to semi-barter outside the banking system."

    Still, while Syrzia may be in disarray, it is the bullying of the Eurocrats-you can understand a Eurocrat as something that is more or less the opposite of a democrat; it is Scott Sumner's or the neoliberal definition of a democrat-that simply knew no bounds that finally got us here.

    "This ultimatum came as a shock to the Greek cabinet. They thought they were on the cusp of a deal, bad though it was. Mr Tsipras had already made the decision to acquiesce to austerity demands, recognizing that Syriza had failed to bring about a debtors' cartel of southern EMU states and had seriously misjudged the mood across the eurozone."

    "Instead they were confronted with a text from the creditors that upped the ante, demanding a rise in VAT on tourist hotels from 7pc (de facto) to 23pc at a single stroke."

    "Creditors insisted on further pension cuts of 1pc of GDP by next year and a phase out of welfare assistance (EKAS) for poorer pensioners, even though pensions have already been cut by 44pc."

    "They insisted on fiscal tightening equal to 2pc of GDP in an economy reeling from six years of depression and devastating hysteresis. They offered no debt relief. The Europeans intervened behind the scenes to suppress a report by the International Monetary Fund validating Greece's claim that its debt is "unsustainable". The IMF concluded that the country not only needs a 30pc haircut to restore viability, but also €52bn of fresh money to claw its way out of crisis.?"

    "Yet if Greece is in turmoil, so is Europe. The entire leadership of the eurozone warned before the referendum that a "No" vote would lead to ejection from the euro, never supposing that they might have to face exactly this."

     "The French are still warning about the dangers of Grexit but the Germans are already making Grexit plans and most in the EU seem to be falling behind the German ultimatum."

     About the only good thing we can say is that at least the US government seems to be on the side of the angels here-though the angels are massive underdogs:

    "Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission's chief, had the wit to make light of his retreat. “We have to put our little egos, in my case a very large ego, away, and deal with situation we face,” he said.

    I can never get over that name: Juncker. Like the old German Junkers.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junker

    "France's prime minister, Manuel Valls said Grexit and the rupture of monetary union must be prevented as the highest strategic imperative. "We cannot let Greece leave the eurozone. Nobody can say today what the political consequences would be, what would be the reaction of the Greek people," he said.

    "French leaders are working in concert with the White House. Washington is bringing its immense diplomatic power to bear, calling openly on the EU to put "Greece on a path toward debt sustainability" and sort out the festering problem once and for all."

    "The Franco-American push is backed by Italy's Matteo Renzi, who said the eurozone has to go back to the drawing board and rethink its whole austerity doctrine after the democratic revolt in Greece. He too now backs debt relief."

    But most in the EU are listening not to America but Germany:

   "Yet 15 of the 18 governments now sitting in judgment on Greece either back Germany's uncompromising stand, or are leaning towards Grexit in one form or another. The Germans are already thinking beyond Grexit, discussing plans for humanitarian aide and balance of payments support for the drachma."

  So we are drifting towards the Grexit nobody wanted.
    
    

     

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