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Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Desperate GOP Blames Media and Polls for Trump's Rise

    Things are really getting desperate in the GOP. I'm now not just a Trump Democrat but a Fox News loving Democrat. And why not? The two seem to be in a conspiracy to make the upcoming GOP debates a complete--but very entertaining joke.

    In 2012 one GOP diagnosis the party seems to be taking to heart is that there were too many debates. The Fox remedy seems to some people to do more harm than good. But I say-let the Republicans run their primary their way.

  http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-2016-gop-debates-never-seen.html

  There is a desperate scramble to get in the top ten in the polls before the debate. Now Scott Walker has a unique way to surmount Trump's lead: deny he has a lead-it's just those liberal polls. Right that's what Mitt Romney said when the polls showed him losing late in the 2012 election and that turned out alright-for those like myself who voted for Obama.

  "Such junk,” tweeted B.J. Martino, a pollster on Scott Walker’s presidential campaign, responding to NBC News/Marist polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, two of three surveys released Sunday that showed Trump at or near the top of the pack. The polls showed Trump leading in New Hampshire and running neck-and-neck with Walker in Iowa, where the Wisconsin governor has been the early favorite.

  "The problem, Republican political professionals say, is that Trump’s rise to the top has been driven by intense media coverage of his often circus-like campaign. That media attention, some Republicans gripe, causes his poll numbers to rise — which, in turn, leads to more media attention."

   http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/what-trump-bump-120693.html?hp=t1_r

   Hmm. So what you're saying is that the hated media is all-powerful and that whoever gets the most media attention will lead in the polls. But then they also blame the polls themselves. 

   "In recent national polls, Trump performs as well or better among self-identified Republican-leaning independents — the kind of voters who might be overrepresented in public polls — than those who identify as committed Republicans. That’s why GOP campaign professionals are telling anyone who will listen that the polls are overestimating Trump’s appeal among the small group of voters who will eventually participate in the party’s nominating process."

  “Iowa Republican caucus goers are roughly 10% of registered voters in the state,” Martino said in a follow-up tweet. “NBC/Marist’s poll? 37% of registered voters.”

   "With national polling serving as the most important part of the criteria for participation in the first two televised GOP debates, the methodology issue is suddenly front and center. Fox News Channel, which is hosting the first debate next week, has said only the top 10 candidates in an average of national public polls will be invited."

  “Normally these polls would be great entertainment value,” said Patrick Ruffini, the co-founder of Echelon Insights, a GOP analytics firm. “The problem is we’re using this to determine who gets into the debates.”

   "Media pollsters defend their work. Random-digit dialing is the best way to achieve a true random sample, they say, and it’s too early for the horse-race numbers to be predictive of the election result."

   So they are arguing that when Trump calls Mexicans drug dealers and rapists this appeals more to Republican leaning independents than Republicans themselves? I have to agree with Ruffini, however: it sure is ironic that these flawed polls are what's going to decide who's in the debate which will basically decide whose campaign isn't viable. 

  I find this methodology a wonderful way-for Republicans-to decide who will be in their debate. I don't know why Rachel Maddow would suggest there's anything wrong with this method. Don't listen to her GOPers, she's the liberal media. 

  I'm a liberal but a liberal who really likes Trump and Fox News.

  Actually if the GOP is going to stop him this is the direction they may have to go-to show how in the past he had very nice things to say about Hillary and suggested in 2004 he was more a Democrat than Republican. 

 http://louderwithcrowder.com/donald-trump-i-identify-more-as-a-democrat-emphatically-praises-hillary/

 The only way to get the base off him is to really push that he's a liberal carpetbagger-which is more or less true-not so much a liberal but just a carpetbagger opportunist. He even said the economy does better under Democrats which is true but a highly inconvenient thing to come out for him now. 
 

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