It's actually a pretty good case-it's related to my Democratic case for Trump.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/07/desperate-gop-blames-media-and-polls.html
Basically, Trump will lead the GOP to a huge loss to Hillary. So I agree totally with Bartlett here-the only way the GOP can ever see reason is through some major sustained electoral losses.
I should add that Trump doesn't have to win the nomination outright which seems unlikely even now-surely the GOP establishment won't allow this-to do damage, although his actually winning would be the ultimate.
So what we're seeing is this:
1. The GOP base loves Trump
2. Democrats like me love Trump
3. Moderate Republicans like Bartlett love Trump.
4. However, the GOP establishment emphatically does not love Trump.
"As a moderate Republican who voted for Obama, I should be Donald Trump’s natural enemy. Instead, I’m rooting for him."
"The Republican establishment foresees a defeat of Barry Goldwater proportions in the unlikely event Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination. As Trump’s lead in the polls grows, so too does their panic. Yet, for moderate Republicans, a Trump nomination is not something to be feared but welcomed. It is only after a landslide loss by Trump that the GOP can win the White House again."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/moderate-republicans-donald-trump-tea-party-conservative-fringe-2016-120675.html#ixzz3hBKOwiX1
I agree the GOP just needs lots of electoral pain. They are not exactly quick learners so they must suffer deep and sustained losses for reality to get through to them.
"Trump’s nomination would give what’s left of the sane wing of the GOP a chance to reassert control in the wake of his inevitable defeat, because it would prove beyond doubt that the existing conservative coalition cannot win the presidency. A historic thrashing of the know-nothings would verify that compromise and reform are essential to recapture the White House and attract new voters, such as Latinos, who are now alienated from the Republican Party."
"A best-case scenario would see the nation souring on the Democrats after three victories in a row, the most either party has achieved in the post-war era, and the election of a pragmatic Republican in 2020, unencumbered by the right-wing baggage essential for winning the nomination that dragged down John McCain and Mitt Romney."
"The Trump phenomenon perfectly represents the culmination of populism and anti-intellectualism that became dominant in the Republican Party with the rise of the Tea Party. I think many Republican leaders have had deep misgivings about the Tea Party since the beginning, but the short-term benefits were too great to resist. A Trump rout is Republican moderates’ best chance to take back the GOP.
This makes sense-I follow all his game theory here. It's also true that for the Dems to win again in 2020 would seem long odds based on history-but then history is made to be broken."
My caveat is I just don't see the GOP learning until they are truly wiped out. Even now with their inability to win the Presidency they are dominant in Congress and run most states. I think this national-regional divide plays out for much longer than 2016. The Republican party has to prove me wrong that they can learn anything. In 2012 they had learnt supposedly that they needed to do immigration reform but then Heritage convinced them they didn't need Latino votes after all-just more whites, more whites than they had even achieved before-while as a demographic whites are decreasing.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2015/07/desperate-gop-blames-media-and-polls.html
Basically, Trump will lead the GOP to a huge loss to Hillary. So I agree totally with Bartlett here-the only way the GOP can ever see reason is through some major sustained electoral losses.
I should add that Trump doesn't have to win the nomination outright which seems unlikely even now-surely the GOP establishment won't allow this-to do damage, although his actually winning would be the ultimate.
So what we're seeing is this:
1. The GOP base loves Trump
2. Democrats like me love Trump
3. Moderate Republicans like Bartlett love Trump.
4. However, the GOP establishment emphatically does not love Trump.
"As a moderate Republican who voted for Obama, I should be Donald Trump’s natural enemy. Instead, I’m rooting for him."
"The Republican establishment foresees a defeat of Barry Goldwater proportions in the unlikely event Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination. As Trump’s lead in the polls grows, so too does their panic. Yet, for moderate Republicans, a Trump nomination is not something to be feared but welcomed. It is only after a landslide loss by Trump that the GOP can win the White House again."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/moderate-republicans-donald-trump-tea-party-conservative-fringe-2016-120675.html#ixzz3hBKOwiX1
I agree the GOP just needs lots of electoral pain. They are not exactly quick learners so they must suffer deep and sustained losses for reality to get through to them.
"Trump’s nomination would give what’s left of the sane wing of the GOP a chance to reassert control in the wake of his inevitable defeat, because it would prove beyond doubt that the existing conservative coalition cannot win the presidency. A historic thrashing of the know-nothings would verify that compromise and reform are essential to recapture the White House and attract new voters, such as Latinos, who are now alienated from the Republican Party."
"A best-case scenario would see the nation souring on the Democrats after three victories in a row, the most either party has achieved in the post-war era, and the election of a pragmatic Republican in 2020, unencumbered by the right-wing baggage essential for winning the nomination that dragged down John McCain and Mitt Romney."
"The Trump phenomenon perfectly represents the culmination of populism and anti-intellectualism that became dominant in the Republican Party with the rise of the Tea Party. I think many Republican leaders have had deep misgivings about the Tea Party since the beginning, but the short-term benefits were too great to resist. A Trump rout is Republican moderates’ best chance to take back the GOP.
This makes sense-I follow all his game theory here. It's also true that for the Dems to win again in 2020 would seem long odds based on history-but then history is made to be broken."
My caveat is I just don't see the GOP learning until they are truly wiped out. Even now with their inability to win the Presidency they are dominant in Congress and run most states. I think this national-regional divide plays out for much longer than 2016. The Republican party has to prove me wrong that they can learn anything. In 2012 they had learnt supposedly that they needed to do immigration reform but then Heritage convinced them they didn't need Latino votes after all-just more whites, more whites than they had even achieved before-while as a demographic whites are decreasing.
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