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Wednesday, July 15, 2015

They Voted for Hitler Too

     It's not really a surprise but the Greek Parliament has voted yes for basically giving up their own sovereignty in exchange for virtually nothing-nothing accept the power of the 'European Idea.' The Greek parliament seems to think that if they leave the euro, nation of Greece will magically grow wings and leave the the continent of Europe and end up somewhere in Asia or South America.

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-power-of-european-idea.html

    They will no longer be European and in exchange for that there is no price too large. This is called a bailout but bailout for who? Not Greece but the EU banks.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/15/greek-crisis-mps-bailout-imf-debt-relief-alexis-tsipras-live

    Sumner accuses the liberals of not realizing if there is predatory lending there must be predatory borrowing which actually doesn't necessarily follow-it may be the case but doesn't have to be.

    To not realize this is to deny that borrowers can be hustled-that there is no advantage in terms of knowledge for lenders vs. borrowers.

    "Just deserts vs. left utilitarianism vs. right utilitarianism. Greece behaved very irresponsibly by running massive budget deficits during the boom years, and then again after reckless actions by Syriza plunged Greece back into negative growth, and then again when Syriza called a poorly worded referendum in the middle of delicate negotiations. Does that bad behavior "deserve" to be punished?"

   "Elsewhere I've argued that utilitarianism is what underlies liberalism. There is no concept of just deserts. What's done is done, and you make the best plans you can devise for making the future a happier place. But there is still moral hazard, which links responses to past behavior to future actions. Left liberals tends to dismiss moral hazard as being relatively unimportant. I think this is a cognitive illusion. For instance, they miss the way that FDIC encourages reckless lending by smaller banks in high growth cities of America. Right wing liberals like me think moral hazard is extremely important, and provides a justification for "toughness", even in a world of no just deserts."

   "It seems to me that the eurozone was motivated by both just deserts and moral hazard fears. (And by the way, it makes more sense to talk about the eurozone than Germany. Almost the entire eurozone was extremely hostile to the Greek position.)"

    http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2015/07/rashomon_at_the.html

   So what this seems to mean is there really is no difference in the policy outcome between Just deserts and right utilitarianism. The reasons given may differ but the outcome is identical.

   He then goes on to talk about your point of view depending on your attitude to socialism.

  "Attitude toward socialism. The Socialists in France were the one group that clearly had some sympathy for Syriza. They viewed the forced privatization and deregulation as harsh conditions imposed on Greece, whereas I view those terms as a gift to the Greek people."

   Right this is the Morgan Warstler position where all this talk of just desserts or paying back your debts because it's the only moral thing to do is just a smokescreen for your own preferred policy.

   Conservatives support the EU position as they love it that Greece is being forced structural reforms whether they want to or not.

   Sumner can talk about predatory borrowing but in the EU no one is talking about predatory lending. In the US we at least looked askance at the lenders in 2008 but in the EU they are seen as poor upright people who deserve to get every last penny back no matter what it does to Greece. If it hruts-tough toe nails, all that matters is you have to pay your debts in any and all circumstances.

    Parenthetically, Sumner's wrong-the EU is Germany. Everyone else is just along for the ride. That the EU has the ECB rather than the Bundesbank directly set monetary policy is just a formality for appearances sake.

   Ambrose Pritchard argues that EU brutality is turning the left against it. Let's hope he's right. Though at this point, it's tough to be too optimistic.

   "It has now lost its remaining emotional hold on the Left after the scorched-earth treatment of Greece over the past five months - culminating in the vindictive decision to impose yet harsher terms on this crushed nation just days after its cri de coeur in a landslide referendum."

    "This has been coming for a long time. We Conservatives have watched in disbelief as one Socialist party after another immolates itself on the altar of monetary union, defending a project that favours the elites - a "bankers' ramp", as the old Left used to call it."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11742624/EMU-brutality-in-Greece-has-destroyed-the-trust-of-Europes-Left.html

    Again, I sincerely hope he's right but this touches on a very important point. Sumner observed:

    "The hard constraint imposed by a single currency makes European countries behave more like (American) states than countries. Think about it. State debts tend to be much smaller than the Federal debt. States are desperately struggling to bring pension costs under control, while 70 Congressional Democrats call for "expanding" Social Security benefits. The top Federal income tax rate is 43.4%, while the highest top bracket at the state level is 13.3%. Taxes are much more regressive at the state level. Individual states don't try to boost AD in recessions. Because states are forced to live within their means, economic policy is in some sense more "conservative." By conservative, I don't mean precisely "free market"---local officials give big tax breaks to individual firms to get them to move into their state, a conservative policy that is not free market. In contrast, the US Federal government doesn't give tax breaks to individual firms to get them to move from France to America."

    "This means that in some sense the EU might be seen as a vast right wing conspiracy to bring conservative economics to Europe. Nationalism prevents complete political union in the EU. And without complete political union you can't have fiscal union. But they already have monetary union and free trade in goods, capital and labor. And it seems there is no going back and no going forward. This policy mix forces individual countries to become more conservative. That's not to say Europe will suddenly move to laissez-faire, the changes will occur at the margin. It just so happened that Greece faces a much more severe constraint than some of the others, and hence will have to change quite dramatically."

    http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2015/07/paul_krugmans_r.html

   Yes, based on results you'd certainly think that conservatives should laud what's going on with Greece-and some like Morgan Warstler, and Sumner himself are in fact doing that.

    Surely, if the Republican party has any brains-which is quite an assumption-it would be demanding that America join the EU tomorrow-geography be damned.

    However, what's interesting is that in Britain the opposition to the euro has been the Conservatives whereas Labor has been pro EU. Note that the Conservatives in recent years have gone further calling for Britain to leave the EU-it of course luckily never joined the euro.

   I find it rather humorous and rather sad-speaking as someone born in England though I grew up in the US-that the best reason anyone can find for them to stay in the EU is that Britain has become such an small unimportant country and this at least keeps them somewhat relevant in Europe.

   http://www.amazon.com/Out-Question-Britain-should-better-ebook/dp/B00IZJ14YY/ref=sr_1_sc_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1437003205&sr=1-1-spell&keywords=hugo+dixon+why+britian+should+stay+in+the+eu&pebp=1437003208465&perid=1QNHG8K4BKVSV9HV7KKM

  Greece should still even now leave the euro-as Lars Christensen points out it worked for Argentina.

  P.S. I do think that liberals should now look to American rather than Europe for inspiration. Europe may be full of 'socialists' but American is going in the right direction-yes, thanks to the transformational Presidency of Obama.

  http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/06/barrack-obamas-consequential-presidency.html




     

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