That is the real question-yeah, I'm going Williams Jennings Bryan on this.
http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5354/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeTkT5-w5RA
As long as we're talking about great speeches check out FDR''s 'welcoming their hatred' speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjSTQwamo8M
Ok, let's get back to it. It seems that German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble has thrown a most unlikely life preserver to the Greek people-that they last night failed to take as they accepted the latest horrible deal.
What it comes out is that there are as Scott Sumner says all kinds of strange bedfellows.
"During the campaign for the recent Greek referendum, something inexplicable happened. The Greek leader Tsipras suddenly offered a compromise proposal that he said was very close to the proposal of the creditors. Tsipras was campaigning for a no vote, but this move seemed to support the yes position. Very odd. His supporters were very upset. In email correspondence with Tyler Cowen, I mentioned my confusion. He suggested that there might be nested games being played, perhaps Tsipras secretly prefers a yes vote."
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?paged=2
"We American are simpletons; completely unable to comprehend the dizzying series of twists and turns in this Greek drama. The latest twist is Germany treating Greece like a naughty child, suggesting that maybe they need a 5-year “timeout” from the euro. And so we arrive at a German/Krugman alliance trying to get Greece out of the euro. Germany to punish Greece and restore order to the euro, while Paul Krugman sees it as a way of avoiding punishing Greece, of sparking an Argentine-style recovery."
"On the other side is the Sumner/Syriza alliance, taking the high road. Agreeing with the Financial Times that:
"Tsipras has capitulated. His antagonists must show magnanimity"
"Syriza sees Grexit as an economic disaster for Greece and a political disaster for Syriza. I actually think Syriza would do worse politically if they stayed in the euro. Even Greece might to worse (it’s unclear, and depends on what else they do). Instead I fear that a Greece pushed out of the euro by Germany would nudge Greece in a radical leftward direction."
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=29923
I guess for him anything is worse than a 'radical leftist government' even an economy at 1994 levels of GDP and the EU literally demanding 27% of the Greek economy for the last 'bailout'-some bailout when the money is only to pay back irresponsible German and French banks.
Nevertheless, his basic point is sound-there are all kinds of nested games being played such that we Americans barely know who's really in with who and what the real motivations are.
"To add to the confusion of Syrzia calling a vote they wanted to lose and Varoufakis leaving after 'winning' when he was supposed to only leave if he lost-we have some strange doings lately with Schauble-Varoufakis' former counterpart in Germany, It has seemed throughout this crisis that the two were on diametrically opposed sides of the argument."
"However, Schauble's latest comments-about a '5 year Grexit' actually suggest that he is Greece's only friend in the country-much more so than Merkel who doesn't scruple about Greece being once again the euro's sacrificial victim."
"Wolfgang Schauble is one of the very few figures who has behaved honourably in this latest chapter. As readers know, I have been highly critical of the hard-bitten finance minister for a long time, holding him directly responsible for the 1930s regime of debt-deflation and contraction imposed on much of Europe, and for refusing to accept that the eurozone's North-South divide must be closed by both sides. Any policy that puts all the burden of adjustment on the South is destructive and doomed to failure."
"But he is entirely right to argue that a velvet divorce and an orderly exit from the euro for five years would be a “better way” for Greece, as he did on Germany radio this morning."
"It would allow the country to regain competitiveness at a stroke without a disastrous over-shoot or the risk that events might spin out of control. It would clear the way for proper debt relief – or a standard IMF-style package."
"Huge sums of Greek money sitting on the sidelines would probably flood back into the country once the Grexit boil had been lanced. It is a pattern seen time and again in emerging markets across the world over the past 60 years."
"Instead, total confusion remains. “Nobody knows at the moment how this is supposed to work without a haircut and everybody knows that a haircut is incompatible with euro membership,” said Mr Schauble.
"To those who say that Grexit would violate the sanctity of monetary union – with incalculable political consequences - one can only reply that it is already too late. The moment Germany tabled its Grexit document over the weekend, the game was up. The euro has already been reduced to a transactional, fixed exchange bloc, subject to the whims of populist politics, shorn of idealism and solidarity."
"Mr Schauble has been pushing for Grexit since 2012, and probably earlier. He genuinely thinks it would better for all concerned. When he floated his plan, he meant it."
"But German Chancellor Angela Merkel did not mean it. She had the opposite purpose. There lies an enormous confusion."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11744305/Greece-should-seize-Germanys-botched-offer-of-a-velvet-Grexit.html
"She didn't really mean it but she used it as a weapon to get Greece to heel and it worked though doing real violence to Germany's image at the same time."
"She has stated repeatedly that any splintering of the euro would be the beginning of the end for the European Project. She has said this so many times that her own credibility is on the line."
"Even if she was irritated by the Schauble paper – and her skirmishes with the irascible finance minister are legendary – she appears to have latched on to it as a useful negotiating ploy. The trick worked. It terrified Mr Tsipras into submission."
"So we now have the worst of all worlds. The deal is an atrocity. The crisis has not been resolved. The integrity of EMU has been breached. Greece has been publicly crushed and humiliated, yet for no purpose. The country cannot possibly meet the demands. There is no debt relief (other than a vague and worthless promise for the future)."
"German diplomacy is in ruins. The world has reached the conclusion that Berlin broke ranks with fellow EU powers, and coldly threatened the ejection of an EMU member state. Great numbers of people across Europe think that Germany has pursued a narrow nationalist, agenda, and behaved like a bully."
"Mr Schauble’s original and honourable intentions have been entirely misunderstood. The world’s verdict is that Germany's benign and enlightened statecraft in Europe over the past 60 years has given way to Bild Zeitung reflexes, the hegemony of crude populism."
"One can only feel sympathy for German diplomats who must clean up the mess and explain how this tangle of conflicting agendas spun escaped control."
"So Schauble has thrown the Greek's a life preserver but what are the chances they will take it? How long will the self-flagellation continue?"
"The Greeks seem to worry more about their status as 'real Europeans' than their true economic interests-this is how the entire EU project works, It's not about economic optimization but competing geopolitical vanities."
"It is often said that the euro is talismanic for the Greeks: that it represents their admission as full and secure members of the European family, a political coin rather than a means of exchange."
As Prtichard says, the Greeks should take Schauble's offer. Grexit is the only chance:
"It is not an easy moral choice. The rich have already moved their money abroad. They would make a windfall gain from devaluation, just as the Mexican elites did after the Tequila crisis."
"The rest of the country has stashed €40bn in secret hiding places, but most of their savings are still trapped in the banks. They would suffer a painful haircut under a switch to the drachma."
"But at the end of the day, you cannot set economic policy in the interests of savers. That way lies perdition. What matters in the long run is whether the country can return to trade equilibrium, sustained growth and full employment."
"Greece will continue to endure its long Calvary until somebody has the courage to tell the Greek people – and to keep telling them until the truth sinks in – that the drachma is their best hope of economic renewal."
"All they are being told now is that any discussion of the drachma amounts to “treason”. If that is the level of intellectual debate, God help Greece."
"Mr Tsipras missed his chance on Sunday. He - or his successor – will surely be given another before long."
A simple slogan-drachma as the only hope of recovery. When will the Greeks put aside their golden cross of euros?!
http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5354/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeTkT5-w5RA
As long as we're talking about great speeches check out FDR''s 'welcoming their hatred' speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjSTQwamo8M
Ok, let's get back to it. It seems that German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble has thrown a most unlikely life preserver to the Greek people-that they last night failed to take as they accepted the latest horrible deal.
What it comes out is that there are as Scott Sumner says all kinds of strange bedfellows.
"During the campaign for the recent Greek referendum, something inexplicable happened. The Greek leader Tsipras suddenly offered a compromise proposal that he said was very close to the proposal of the creditors. Tsipras was campaigning for a no vote, but this move seemed to support the yes position. Very odd. His supporters were very upset. In email correspondence with Tyler Cowen, I mentioned my confusion. He suggested that there might be nested games being played, perhaps Tsipras secretly prefers a yes vote."
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?paged=2
"We American are simpletons; completely unable to comprehend the dizzying series of twists and turns in this Greek drama. The latest twist is Germany treating Greece like a naughty child, suggesting that maybe they need a 5-year “timeout” from the euro. And so we arrive at a German/Krugman alliance trying to get Greece out of the euro. Germany to punish Greece and restore order to the euro, while Paul Krugman sees it as a way of avoiding punishing Greece, of sparking an Argentine-style recovery."
"On the other side is the Sumner/Syriza alliance, taking the high road. Agreeing with the Financial Times that:
"Tsipras has capitulated. His antagonists must show magnanimity"
"Syriza sees Grexit as an economic disaster for Greece and a political disaster for Syriza. I actually think Syriza would do worse politically if they stayed in the euro. Even Greece might to worse (it’s unclear, and depends on what else they do). Instead I fear that a Greece pushed out of the euro by Germany would nudge Greece in a radical leftward direction."
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=29923
I guess for him anything is worse than a 'radical leftist government' even an economy at 1994 levels of GDP and the EU literally demanding 27% of the Greek economy for the last 'bailout'-some bailout when the money is only to pay back irresponsible German and French banks.
Nevertheless, his basic point is sound-there are all kinds of nested games being played such that we Americans barely know who's really in with who and what the real motivations are.
"To add to the confusion of Syrzia calling a vote they wanted to lose and Varoufakis leaving after 'winning' when he was supposed to only leave if he lost-we have some strange doings lately with Schauble-Varoufakis' former counterpart in Germany, It has seemed throughout this crisis that the two were on diametrically opposed sides of the argument."
"However, Schauble's latest comments-about a '5 year Grexit' actually suggest that he is Greece's only friend in the country-much more so than Merkel who doesn't scruple about Greece being once again the euro's sacrificial victim."
"Wolfgang Schauble is one of the very few figures who has behaved honourably in this latest chapter. As readers know, I have been highly critical of the hard-bitten finance minister for a long time, holding him directly responsible for the 1930s regime of debt-deflation and contraction imposed on much of Europe, and for refusing to accept that the eurozone's North-South divide must be closed by both sides. Any policy that puts all the burden of adjustment on the South is destructive and doomed to failure."
"But he is entirely right to argue that a velvet divorce and an orderly exit from the euro for five years would be a “better way” for Greece, as he did on Germany radio this morning."
"It would allow the country to regain competitiveness at a stroke without a disastrous over-shoot or the risk that events might spin out of control. It would clear the way for proper debt relief – or a standard IMF-style package."
"Huge sums of Greek money sitting on the sidelines would probably flood back into the country once the Grexit boil had been lanced. It is a pattern seen time and again in emerging markets across the world over the past 60 years."
"Instead, total confusion remains. “Nobody knows at the moment how this is supposed to work without a haircut and everybody knows that a haircut is incompatible with euro membership,” said Mr Schauble.
"To those who say that Grexit would violate the sanctity of monetary union – with incalculable political consequences - one can only reply that it is already too late. The moment Germany tabled its Grexit document over the weekend, the game was up. The euro has already been reduced to a transactional, fixed exchange bloc, subject to the whims of populist politics, shorn of idealism and solidarity."
"Mr Schauble has been pushing for Grexit since 2012, and probably earlier. He genuinely thinks it would better for all concerned. When he floated his plan, he meant it."
"But German Chancellor Angela Merkel did not mean it. She had the opposite purpose. There lies an enormous confusion."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11744305/Greece-should-seize-Germanys-botched-offer-of-a-velvet-Grexit.html
"She didn't really mean it but she used it as a weapon to get Greece to heel and it worked though doing real violence to Germany's image at the same time."
"She has stated repeatedly that any splintering of the euro would be the beginning of the end for the European Project. She has said this so many times that her own credibility is on the line."
"Even if she was irritated by the Schauble paper – and her skirmishes with the irascible finance minister are legendary – she appears to have latched on to it as a useful negotiating ploy. The trick worked. It terrified Mr Tsipras into submission."
"So we now have the worst of all worlds. The deal is an atrocity. The crisis has not been resolved. The integrity of EMU has been breached. Greece has been publicly crushed and humiliated, yet for no purpose. The country cannot possibly meet the demands. There is no debt relief (other than a vague and worthless promise for the future)."
"German diplomacy is in ruins. The world has reached the conclusion that Berlin broke ranks with fellow EU powers, and coldly threatened the ejection of an EMU member state. Great numbers of people across Europe think that Germany has pursued a narrow nationalist, agenda, and behaved like a bully."
"Mr Schauble’s original and honourable intentions have been entirely misunderstood. The world’s verdict is that Germany's benign and enlightened statecraft in Europe over the past 60 years has given way to Bild Zeitung reflexes, the hegemony of crude populism."
"One can only feel sympathy for German diplomats who must clean up the mess and explain how this tangle of conflicting agendas spun escaped control."
"So Schauble has thrown the Greek's a life preserver but what are the chances they will take it? How long will the self-flagellation continue?"
"The Greeks seem to worry more about their status as 'real Europeans' than their true economic interests-this is how the entire EU project works, It's not about economic optimization but competing geopolitical vanities."
"It is often said that the euro is talismanic for the Greeks: that it represents their admission as full and secure members of the European family, a political coin rather than a means of exchange."
As Prtichard says, the Greeks should take Schauble's offer. Grexit is the only chance:
"It is not an easy moral choice. The rich have already moved their money abroad. They would make a windfall gain from devaluation, just as the Mexican elites did after the Tequila crisis."
"The rest of the country has stashed €40bn in secret hiding places, but most of their savings are still trapped in the banks. They would suffer a painful haircut under a switch to the drachma."
"But at the end of the day, you cannot set economic policy in the interests of savers. That way lies perdition. What matters in the long run is whether the country can return to trade equilibrium, sustained growth and full employment."
"Greece will continue to endure its long Calvary until somebody has the courage to tell the Greek people – and to keep telling them until the truth sinks in – that the drachma is their best hope of economic renewal."
"All they are being told now is that any discussion of the drachma amounts to “treason”. If that is the level of intellectual debate, God help Greece."
"Mr Tsipras missed his chance on Sunday. He - or his successor – will surely be given another before long."
A simple slogan-drachma as the only hope of recovery. When will the Greeks put aside their golden cross of euros?!
No comments:
Post a Comment