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Thursday, July 2, 2015

Rick Lowry, Immigration and the College Fallacy

     In today's increasingly Uber economy college is greatly overrated by some. In my last piece I looked at Rick Lowry's defense of Trump's vile comments about Mexican immigrants. 

     He basically admits that Trump framing of the issue may have been a bit off but that he nevertheless makes a good point. 

      

      "Trump’s comments made it sound as though Mexico is sending us moral defectives. That’s not the larger problem (although gangs certainly exploit the border and there are criminals in any population). Immigrants are willing to work. Immigrant men aged 18-65 are in the labor force at a higher rate than native men."

      "It’s just that a lack of education is an anchor around even the hardest-working person in modern America. This is illustrated in an exhaustive report based on government data, by Steven Camarota of the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors a lower level of immigration. I rely on it for the figures that follow."

     "Immigrants here from Mexico — which has sent more immigrants than any other country for decades — have the lowest levels of education. Nearly 60 percent of them haven’t graduated from high school. Only about 10 percent have some college and nearly 6 percent have a bachelor’s degree or higher."

    "By way of comparison, the situation of immigrants from Korea, for instance, is almost exactly reversed. More than 50 percent of them have a bachelor’s degree or higher, and less than 4 percent failed to earn a high school diploma."

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/sorry-donald-trump-has-a-point-119662.html#ixzz3eja1fXOM


    So Lowry thinks we should only favor immigration for people with a college education? I don't see the basis for this. Don't get me wrong I'm all for exchange student programs, etc. for engineers from India and South Korea, et. al. 

    However, there is plenty of unskilled work for unskilled labor. These immigrants are already doing it but under the shadow of illegality. What bearing does this have on simply making illegal immigrants in this country who are already working legal?

   He also argues that even after 2 generations these immigrants don't catch up:

   "Immigrants make progress on almost every indicator over time, but are still far behind natives after two decades. (The exception to the general progress is welfare use, which actually increases among immigrants here for 20 years compared with immigrants here fewer than five years.)"

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/sorry-donald-trump-has-a-point-119662.html#ixzz3ejbJdkdg

    Ok, but even if this is true are they in better shape than they would have been had they not emigrated?

    Lowry then gives us a rule: we must decrease unskilled immigration. 

    "For all its crassness, Trump’s rant on immigration is closer to reality than the gauzy clichés of the immigration romantics unwilling to acknowledge that there might be an issue welcoming large numbers of high school dropouts into a 21st-century economy. If we don’t want to add to the ranks of the poor, the uninsured and the welfare dependent, we should have fewer low-skilled immigrants — assuming saying that is not yet officially considered a hate crime."

   Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/sorry-donald-trump-has-a-point-119662.html#ixzz3ejbpTYI5

   This is classic National Review by the way. They tweak and refine-and thereby sanction-crass conservative rants like Trump's. 

   However, it's a very convenient argument. If we were to listen to Lowry then we'd decrease Latino immigration and maybe slowdown the browning of American which would give the GOP a shot at winning the Presidency against sometime soon. 

  Overall, I also think this lauding of college needs some qualification. I'm skeptical of college speaking not as a high school dropout but as someone with a Bachelor's degree and 1 class short of a Masters and have little to show for my efforts. 

  Maybe the economists want to do more studies but what I found is that if you've been out of an industry for a few years the employer doesn't care if you have an education or not. 

   What's more we have an epidemic of students leaving college with huge loan debt while not getting a job they needed their degree for. This is the beauty of Obama's new law-it will require students to actually get a high paying job or the school is held accountable. 

   Diploma mills will have to shutdown but that's a good thing. 

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/university-of-phoenix-future-of-for-profit-colleges

    Also in today's Uber economy there are ways to make it that have nothing to do with going to college. 

    Just for Lowry let me quote a conservative publication, Forbes:

     "Entrepreneurs don’t need a particular pedigree to get their start or leave their mark on the world. While many successful entrepreneurs attended top business schools to learn about starting and running a company, some of today’s most successful entrepreneurs studied at less well-known colleges or state universities, or never went to college at all. And skyrocketing prices at many colleges and universities are prompting some young entrepreneurs to seek other avenues to success."

   "Earning a degree at a top-ranked school can be a huge financial burden. Many Ivy League graduates today are seeking jobs in higher-paying fields like finance and investment, instead of launching into the startup space. Often they are forced to make this choice because they have massive student loans and are afraid they can’t afford to venture out on their own. Top business schools are continually improving their entrepreneurial classes and workshops to attract would-be entrepreneurs and encourage students to launch startups – yet tuition at the leading business programs in the U.S. can cost more than $55,000 per year."

     "Meanwhile, several of today’s most successful entrepreneurs graduated from state universities and smaller colleges. One recent study found that the three public universities in Michigan turn out double the national average of entrepreneurs."

    "Many college dropouts also have found incredible success in launching startups. There are headline-making examples like Mark Zuckerberg, who dropped out of Harvard to launch his Facebook empire, and Richard Branson, who never graduated from high school but went on to found Virgin Group. But less well-known innovators have successfully followed a similar track."

     http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/12/27/college-degrees-are-vastly-overrated-as-todays-entrepreneurial-dropouts-routinely-reveal/

     I do think that college can be very helpful and if I had kids I'd probably encourage them to go to college. etc. And yes, if I'm hiring someone, I''d probably be impressed with college as it at least shows discipline, etc. 

    However, in the Uber economy things are no longer one size fits all. Arguably the Golden Age of education has been over for 25 years. At some point even more education hits the law of diminishing returns.

    There is a real problem with exaggerating the benefits of an education. I think there is some value and by doing something about the high cost of tuition and holding them accountable for performance we can increase the value of it for students immediately.

     Overall, though, I suspect that Lowry is just using this as a convenient excuse for the GOP to keep out voters who won't vote for them anyway. Trump and Lowry do the 2 step.

    1. Trump makes a bunch of vulgar slurs against Mexicans.

    2. Lowry admits it was vulgar but refines the argument and declare that the problem with Mexicans is they are uneducated so we should keep them out. That this will help the GOP is just a happy accident. 

 


    

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