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Friday, July 10, 2015

On Euro and Greece, Sumner and I For Once Agree

     You can knock me over with a feather-he actually linked to my link I left him on regarding Ambrose Pritchard's fasciniating piece this week.

  "Then commenter Mike Sax pointed out that Varoufakis once linked to an article by Evans-Pritchard, praising it lavishly. Interestingly, the new Evans-Pritchard piece reflects some of the views held by Varoufakis. Could he be a source?"

  http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=29910

  Hell has frozen over! LOL. Actually, it does seems that Pritchard may be an insider. I also agree with Sumner that it's very difficult to figure out what game is being played at this point-by either side. What the different actors at the EU or Tripas are really up to. So it may not be a victory for democracy here. Surely, if Tripas accepts the same deal Greece voted down last Sunday it isn't.

  "It’s too soon to say any of this is true. But each hour that goes by I am more and more convinced that this prediction will somehow turn out accurate:"

  "Does it sound like Syriza was telling the truth? Will the Greeks now negotiate a better deal? Or did they not even bother presenting an offer because they knew the game is over and Grexit is approaching? I’m not sure, but within a week we’ll probably know the truth. My hunch is that a month from now this won’t be viewed as a “victory for democracy.”

  "Not my view that Grexit was likely, but rather the prediction that in the end this won’t be seen as a victory for democracy. Some very subtle games are being played here on both sides. To think that voters could suddenly be thrust in the middle of these complex games, with no understanding of what’s really going on, and less than the legally required two weeks to analyze the situation, and make a helpful contribution to the negotiations, seems increasingly utopian. I love referenda, but this isn’t how it’s supposed to be done."

  Here he says something I've been saying for 2 weeks-that a Grexit may be the only chance for Greece:

  "If a deal is reached it will be very good news for the global economy–there was danger of a deflationary shock. But it won’t be good news for Greece, indeed in some ways the worst of all possible worlds. The socialists will still be in power, reluctant to do neoliberal reforms, and there’s no silver lining of a boost to NGDP coming from devaluation. Overall I’m happy if there’s a deal because I care most about global welfare—but with a tinge of sympathy for the Greeks."

     See that's been a complaint of mine-if a Grexit would hurt the global economy then why not compromise at all with Greece? I know-the risk of encouraging others to do the same as if anyone would want to trade places with them with what they've been going through.

    Overall, I'd say that Tripas is kind of like Obama in 2009.

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/tripas-vs-eu-as-obama-vs-gop-congress.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29

   Obama came in believing that he could usher in a 'post-political age' and reach compromises with the GOP. He came in insisting that he didn't want to win on strictly party line votes.

   This is very similar to Tripas this year-he came thinking he could reason with the Eurocrats and get them to agree to some compromises on austerity. This was  vain hope it turns out.

   The difference being that the President had a Democratic majority and was able to get a lot done in the end along with more recent executive moves as he's long since recognized the GOP will never cooperate with him.

 


     

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