I'm starting to think so. Sumner used my link as a HT I chronicled my last post
"Then commenter Mike Sax pointed out that Varoufakis once linked to an article by Evans-Pritchard, praising it lavishly. Interestingly, the new Evans-Pritchard piece reflects some of the views held by Varoufakis. Could he be a source?"
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/on-euro-and-greece-sumner-and-i-for.html
Now Greg concurs with Morgan Warstler:
"Greece is giving you lots of material isn't it? That whole part of the world is so fucked up right now. Cullen Roche had a nice piece yesterday I think where he gives his thoughts on Greece and I think I agree with him. He says the time for Greece to exit the Euro was 5 -6 years ago not today. They have already experienced most of the pain and an exit now would simply put them at risk of hyperinflation. Hyperinflations are most likely when 1) You have real supply problems, dependent on foreign imports 2) You have a lot of debts in currencies other than your own 3) Tax system is broken 4) Bonds will not be in high demand."
"Now, all this stuff COULD be managed..........IF the Greeks were a unified front, had the realities of situation well explained to them and they were committed to sovereignty. However I don't think any of that is the case a t present. I think Cullen is correct and that Greece missed the optimal time to leave the Euro. They will experience much more pain upon leaving now than they would have then."
"SO I guess Im saying that I agree with Morgan in a sense. If Greece leaves they will jump right into the real possibility of a Venezuala/Zimbabwe/ Argentina like hyperinflation if they don't manage things with extreme care but by staying they are like a South Carolina if the Euro project federalizes. They will probably have a lot of military bases (like SC..... and the rest of the south really) and they have good vacation spots. An economy dependent on military spending and tourism could work quite well, most of the southern US is in the exact situation, but Europe is a long way from that type of integration...... if ever."
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/is-grexit-inevitable-krugman-vs-morgan.html?showComment=1436562250409#c7624709901736837699
Yes, it seems far off to me as well-Germany so far has not even wanted to discuss more fiscal union-I guess Morgan would say they would if Greece would do more structural reforms first.
Yes, the EU stuff has gotten me a lot of material-there is so much to understand in monetary economics.
As to the question, I think some humility is in order as to what's best. I'm still leaning in Krugman and Lars Christensen's direction rather than Morgan and Greg-though I have to think more about Roche's posts.
Like Brad Delong, I feel like I'm missing something.
http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/07/a-non-post-on-the-greek-crisis-and-the-eurozone.html
I mean take Scott's words here:
"If a deal is reached it will be very good news for the global economy–there was danger of a deflationary shock. But it won’t be good news for Greece, indeed in some ways the worst of all possible worlds. The socialists will still be in power, reluctant to do neoliberal reforms, and there’s no silver lining of a boost to NGDP coming from devaluation. Overall I’m happy if there’s a deal because I care most about global welfare—but with a tinge of sympathy for the Greeks."
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/on-euro-and-greece-sumner-and-i-for.html
Think about that for a minute. This means that the EU stands to lose a lot if Greece leaves. Not for economic reasons so much but politically that could be the start of other countries leaving the euro.
Yet, to the end the Greeks have seemingly had no leverage in the negotiations. The EU despite not wanting Greece to leave hasn't compromised on anything meanginful at all. The optimism that there will be a deal is because Tripas has basically capitulated.
Yet, if a Grexit could actually cause harm to the world economy shouldn't they have had some leverage? Like the Kennedy killing, it's a "Mystery, wrapped inside an enigma.'
P.S. I am a little heartened that intelligent people with different mood affiliations can come to some agreement or at least understanding. It's nice to think that with all the heat we econ blogger nerds generate, we do occasionally generate a little light.
"Then commenter Mike Sax pointed out that Varoufakis once linked to an article by Evans-Pritchard, praising it lavishly. Interestingly, the new Evans-Pritchard piece reflects some of the views held by Varoufakis. Could he be a source?"
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/on-euro-and-greece-sumner-and-i-for.html
Now Greg concurs with Morgan Warstler:
"Greece is giving you lots of material isn't it? That whole part of the world is so fucked up right now. Cullen Roche had a nice piece yesterday I think where he gives his thoughts on Greece and I think I agree with him. He says the time for Greece to exit the Euro was 5 -6 years ago not today. They have already experienced most of the pain and an exit now would simply put them at risk of hyperinflation. Hyperinflations are most likely when 1) You have real supply problems, dependent on foreign imports 2) You have a lot of debts in currencies other than your own 3) Tax system is broken 4) Bonds will not be in high demand."
"Now, all this stuff COULD be managed..........IF the Greeks were a unified front, had the realities of situation well explained to them and they were committed to sovereignty. However I don't think any of that is the case a t present. I think Cullen is correct and that Greece missed the optimal time to leave the Euro. They will experience much more pain upon leaving now than they would have then."
"SO I guess Im saying that I agree with Morgan in a sense. If Greece leaves they will jump right into the real possibility of a Venezuala/Zimbabwe/ Argentina like hyperinflation if they don't manage things with extreme care but by staying they are like a South Carolina if the Euro project federalizes. They will probably have a lot of military bases (like SC..... and the rest of the south really) and they have good vacation spots. An economy dependent on military spending and tourism could work quite well, most of the southern US is in the exact situation, but Europe is a long way from that type of integration...... if ever."
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/is-grexit-inevitable-krugman-vs-morgan.html?showComment=1436562250409#c7624709901736837699
Yes, it seems far off to me as well-Germany so far has not even wanted to discuss more fiscal union-I guess Morgan would say they would if Greece would do more structural reforms first.
Yes, the EU stuff has gotten me a lot of material-there is so much to understand in monetary economics.
As to the question, I think some humility is in order as to what's best. I'm still leaning in Krugman and Lars Christensen's direction rather than Morgan and Greg-though I have to think more about Roche's posts.
Like Brad Delong, I feel like I'm missing something.
http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/07/a-non-post-on-the-greek-crisis-and-the-eurozone.html
I mean take Scott's words here:
"If a deal is reached it will be very good news for the global economy–there was danger of a deflationary shock. But it won’t be good news for Greece, indeed in some ways the worst of all possible worlds. The socialists will still be in power, reluctant to do neoliberal reforms, and there’s no silver lining of a boost to NGDP coming from devaluation. Overall I’m happy if there’s a deal because I care most about global welfare—but with a tinge of sympathy for the Greeks."
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/on-euro-and-greece-sumner-and-i-for.html
Think about that for a minute. This means that the EU stands to lose a lot if Greece leaves. Not for economic reasons so much but politically that could be the start of other countries leaving the euro.
Yet, to the end the Greeks have seemingly had no leverage in the negotiations. The EU despite not wanting Greece to leave hasn't compromised on anything meanginful at all. The optimism that there will be a deal is because Tripas has basically capitulated.
Yet, if a Grexit could actually cause harm to the world economy shouldn't they have had some leverage? Like the Kennedy killing, it's a "Mystery, wrapped inside an enigma.'
P.S. I am a little heartened that intelligent people with different mood affiliations can come to some agreement or at least understanding. It's nice to think that with all the heat we econ blogger nerds generate, we do occasionally generate a little light.
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