Recently the IMF has made news-mostly for arguing that Greece does need debt relief, but also-that US interest rates shouldn't be raised this year:
"More gains by the dollar could leave US growth “significantly debilitated” and have repercussions across emerging markets, the International Monetary Fund says.
"In a health check on the US, the fund reiterated its advice that the Federal Reserve should delay raising interest rates until next year, partly because of a risk that a rate increase would trigger another rise in the dollar with destabilising consequences globally."
"Continued appreciation of the dollar, up more than 20 per cent against a basket of key currencies in the past 12 months, is a “prominent risk” because of growth divergences between the US and other economies, the IMF added, as it forecast a steady widening of the current account deficit towards 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product over the rest of the decade."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d33c5c6e-24ab-11e5-bd83-71cb60e8f08c.html#ixzz3fVXpmCDu
However, that may be, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen still thinks it likely there will be a rate hike this year:
"As Wall Street frets over when the first interest rate hike in nine years will come, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is sticking to the script."
"In a speech delivered Friday to the City Club of Cleveland, the U.S. central bank chief reiterated familiar Fed talking points: The economy is improving, unemployment is dropping, inflation is getting close to healthy levels."
"However, she left herself and her fellow Fed Open Market Committee members enough wiggle room on rates, which probably, but not definitely will be increasing before year's end."
"Based on my outlook, I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy," Yellen said in prepared remarks. "I want to emphasize that the course of the economy and inflation remains highly uncertain, and unanticipated developments could delay or accelerate this first step."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/10/fed-chair-janet-yellen-interest-rate-hike-to-come-later-this-year.html
The market, however, is betting on the first rate hike for next year.
"Market participants have vacillated over expectations for the first hike. Just a few months ago, June was in play. However, in recent days, with the U.S. economic growth uneven and a variety of geopolitical obstacles on the landscape, traders in futures markets have pushed out the date."
"Expectations on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are now for the Fed to hold off a hike until January 2016, though many doubt it will take that long."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/10/fed-chair-janet-yellen-interest-rate-hike-to-come-later-this-year.html
I don't get though what makes her say inflation is getting close to target-it's still way beneath target. She does still seem to think there's slack in the economy.
"It is my judgment that the lower level of the unemployment rate today probably does not fully capture the extent of slack remaining in the labor market—in other words, how far away we are from a full-employment economy," she said.
"Job creation was a bit below expectations in June. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.3 percent, but was largely due to a marked decline in the labor force participation rate, which is at its lowest level in about 37 years."
"More importantly from the Fed's perspective, wage growth has been muted. Average hourly earnings were flat for the month and are rising at just a 2 percent annualized basis, according to the Labor Department."
"Looking further ahead, I think that many of the fundamental factors underlying U.S. economic activity are solid and should lead to some pickup in the pace of economic growth in the coming years," Yellen said. "In particular, I anticipate that employment will continue to expand and the unemployment rate will decline further."
"More gains by the dollar could leave US growth “significantly debilitated” and have repercussions across emerging markets, the International Monetary Fund says.
"In a health check on the US, the fund reiterated its advice that the Federal Reserve should delay raising interest rates until next year, partly because of a risk that a rate increase would trigger another rise in the dollar with destabilising consequences globally."
"Continued appreciation of the dollar, up more than 20 per cent against a basket of key currencies in the past 12 months, is a “prominent risk” because of growth divergences between the US and other economies, the IMF added, as it forecast a steady widening of the current account deficit towards 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product over the rest of the decade."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d33c5c6e-24ab-11e5-bd83-71cb60e8f08c.html#ixzz3fVXpmCDu
However, that may be, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen still thinks it likely there will be a rate hike this year:
"As Wall Street frets over when the first interest rate hike in nine years will come, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is sticking to the script."
"In a speech delivered Friday to the City Club of Cleveland, the U.S. central bank chief reiterated familiar Fed talking points: The economy is improving, unemployment is dropping, inflation is getting close to healthy levels."
"However, she left herself and her fellow Fed Open Market Committee members enough wiggle room on rates, which probably, but not definitely will be increasing before year's end."
"Based on my outlook, I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy," Yellen said in prepared remarks. "I want to emphasize that the course of the economy and inflation remains highly uncertain, and unanticipated developments could delay or accelerate this first step."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/10/fed-chair-janet-yellen-interest-rate-hike-to-come-later-this-year.html
The market, however, is betting on the first rate hike for next year.
"Market participants have vacillated over expectations for the first hike. Just a few months ago, June was in play. However, in recent days, with the U.S. economic growth uneven and a variety of geopolitical obstacles on the landscape, traders in futures markets have pushed out the date."
"Expectations on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are now for the Fed to hold off a hike until January 2016, though many doubt it will take that long."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/10/fed-chair-janet-yellen-interest-rate-hike-to-come-later-this-year.html
I don't get though what makes her say inflation is getting close to target-it's still way beneath target. She does still seem to think there's slack in the economy.
"It is my judgment that the lower level of the unemployment rate today probably does not fully capture the extent of slack remaining in the labor market—in other words, how far away we are from a full-employment economy," she said.
"Job creation was a bit below expectations in June. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.3 percent, but was largely due to a marked decline in the labor force participation rate, which is at its lowest level in about 37 years."
"More importantly from the Fed's perspective, wage growth has been muted. Average hourly earnings were flat for the month and are rising at just a 2 percent annualized basis, according to the Labor Department."
"Looking further ahead, I think that many of the fundamental factors underlying U.S. economic activity are solid and should lead to some pickup in the pace of economic growth in the coming years," Yellen said. "In particular, I anticipate that employment will continue to expand and the unemployment rate will decline further."
No comments:
Post a Comment