I think everyone is a bit shocked by how bad this deal was.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/agreekment-price-of-7-months-of.html
You have to ask now what exactly Tripas thinks he achieved here. He just accepted a deal much worse than the one his citizens voted against last week. Yes, you have Greek politicians praising the deal. Trouble is that these are from opposition parties not Syrzia:
Stavros Theodorakis said
"[Our] aim is achieved. The country was kept in the Eurozone and the European Union. Alexis Tsipras kept his last promise against all those who wanted us to return to the drachma."
"We hope the government and the parliament and the political parties will without any delay and limbo catching and take the decisions they have to take so that Greece passes as soon as possible to a new era."
"The deal came very late, it contains very painful measures and will demand unfortunately new sacrifices from the Greek people. This time let’s do it with a plan, with decisiveness and justice. For Greece and for our children."
http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/liveblogs/2015-07-13/
"Former Prime Minister Papandreou is gloating that this is a worse deal than what he negotiated with the EU back in 2011-as well he might. He had been criticized vociferously for capitulation. It cost him his office."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/06/greece-negotating-in-much-worse-situation-papandreou.html
Amazing after all this that Tripas is doing the same thing-falling on his sword. Evidently, the idea of leaving the euro never occurred to him. So was anything positive at all achieved? Maybe.
We had a few big breakthroughs. The vote, even if it is disregarded changes things. Even if there isn't a Grexit now there may be one in the near future:
Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics is sounding gloomy over Greece's future within the eurozone even in the wake of last night's deal.
A Greek exit from the euro-zone might just have been kicked down the road. But we have said all along that, without major debt relief, any deal for Greece will merely delay the inevitable, and perhaps for not very long.
Citi is not raising too many celebratory glasses this morning....
"The Eurozone Summit on 12-13 July ended with a compromise proposal after a weekend of negotiations. The proposal includes major prior actions that need to be passed by the Greek parliament to allow a third bailout agreement to be negotiated,"
"We maintain that the most likely outcome is that another bailout will be agreed, but the risk of no deal and short-term Grexit remain significant. In our view, it is not certain whether the Greek parliament will vote in favour of the proposed deal and votes of opposition parties may be needed to obtain a majority in the Greek parliament."
"The Greek parliament will discuss the deal on 13 July and must pass these actions by 15 July. Some national parliaments will also need to ratify the proposal. ECB-held Greek debt matures on 20 July Overall, we maintain that Grexit remains the most likely outcome over the next 1-3 years."
"Citi is not alone in continuing to bet on an eventual Grexit.
"Alex White, Europe director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, writes:
“We continue to believe that a Grexit is more likely to occur than not, although we are pushing back the time period in which we expect this to happen. We shift our call from Grexit within the next three months to Grexit before the end of our medium-term forecast period (2019).
"This call is based upon our view that the referendum, and subsequent events, have permanently changed the political dynamics in Greece and the wider region. If the Greek parliament does approve a deal, it will be implementing a package that 62% of the population explicitly rejected a week ago. The chances of successful implementation are low. There are particular questions around how Greece will find the required €50bn in assets for transfer to the European trust."
"As there is no debt relief-all references to it are back ended-unlike the front ended austerity measures, it does seem that even assuming Greece passes this bad deal-that also is supposed to get rid of any laws not agreed to by the EU-we will be talkiung about Grexit again soon enough."
And even though-if this passes; which I think it shouldn't-we will avoid Grexit for now, Germany even broaching the topic of '5 year timeout' for Greece yesterday let's the cat out of the bag and the genie out of the bottle. It can't be closed again.
https://medium.com/sky-news/when-crunch-talks-go-wrong-2322bc7ba88a
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/agreekment-price-of-7-months-of.html
You have to ask now what exactly Tripas thinks he achieved here. He just accepted a deal much worse than the one his citizens voted against last week. Yes, you have Greek politicians praising the deal. Trouble is that these are from opposition parties not Syrzia:
Stavros Theodorakis said
"[Our] aim is achieved. The country was kept in the Eurozone and the European Union. Alexis Tsipras kept his last promise against all those who wanted us to return to the drachma."
"We hope the government and the parliament and the political parties will without any delay and limbo catching and take the decisions they have to take so that Greece passes as soon as possible to a new era."
"The deal came very late, it contains very painful measures and will demand unfortunately new sacrifices from the Greek people. This time let’s do it with a plan, with decisiveness and justice. For Greece and for our children."
http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/liveblogs/2015-07-13/
"Former Prime Minister Papandreou is gloating that this is a worse deal than what he negotiated with the EU back in 2011-as well he might. He had been criticized vociferously for capitulation. It cost him his office."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/06/greece-negotating-in-much-worse-situation-papandreou.html
Amazing after all this that Tripas is doing the same thing-falling on his sword. Evidently, the idea of leaving the euro never occurred to him. So was anything positive at all achieved? Maybe.
We had a few big breakthroughs. The vote, even if it is disregarded changes things. Even if there isn't a Grexit now there may be one in the near future:
Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics is sounding gloomy over Greece's future within the eurozone even in the wake of last night's deal.
A Greek exit from the euro-zone might just have been kicked down the road. But we have said all along that, without major debt relief, any deal for Greece will merely delay the inevitable, and perhaps for not very long.
Citi is not raising too many celebratory glasses this morning....
"The Eurozone Summit on 12-13 July ended with a compromise proposal after a weekend of negotiations. The proposal includes major prior actions that need to be passed by the Greek parliament to allow a third bailout agreement to be negotiated,"
"We maintain that the most likely outcome is that another bailout will be agreed, but the risk of no deal and short-term Grexit remain significant. In our view, it is not certain whether the Greek parliament will vote in favour of the proposed deal and votes of opposition parties may be needed to obtain a majority in the Greek parliament."
"The Greek parliament will discuss the deal on 13 July and must pass these actions by 15 July. Some national parliaments will also need to ratify the proposal. ECB-held Greek debt matures on 20 July Overall, we maintain that Grexit remains the most likely outcome over the next 1-3 years."
"Citi is not alone in continuing to bet on an eventual Grexit.
"Alex White, Europe director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, writes:
“We continue to believe that a Grexit is more likely to occur than not, although we are pushing back the time period in which we expect this to happen. We shift our call from Grexit within the next three months to Grexit before the end of our medium-term forecast period (2019).
"This call is based upon our view that the referendum, and subsequent events, have permanently changed the political dynamics in Greece and the wider region. If the Greek parliament does approve a deal, it will be implementing a package that 62% of the population explicitly rejected a week ago. The chances of successful implementation are low. There are particular questions around how Greece will find the required €50bn in assets for transfer to the European trust."
"As there is no debt relief-all references to it are back ended-unlike the front ended austerity measures, it does seem that even assuming Greece passes this bad deal-that also is supposed to get rid of any laws not agreed to by the EU-we will be talkiung about Grexit again soon enough."
And even though-if this passes; which I think it shouldn't-we will avoid Grexit for now, Germany even broaching the topic of '5 year timeout' for Greece yesterday let's the cat out of the bag and the genie out of the bottle. It can't be closed again.
https://medium.com/sky-news/when-crunch-talks-go-wrong-2322bc7ba88a
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