The EU wants a yes vote, Tsipras is urging his people to vote no. Both sides in theory at least should have a chance as the Greek people want 2 contradictory things:
1. An end or at least a significant rollback of austerity.
This is what Tsipras wants and this is what he campaigned on and the Greek people voted for him based on that campaign so you'd think they would listen to him and vote no. But:
2. They also don't want to leave the euro.
So both sides have to frame the vote in a way that will make voters do what they want them to. The EU insists that a no vote is essentially not just a no vote on the Troika's latest proposal but a no on staying on the euro. Most Greeks don't want to leave the euro.
So Tsipras frames it as a vote simply to reject the latest EU proposal. He argues that a no vote is in no way a vote to leave the euro. He is basically arguing that Greeks should call the bluff of those who claim that it is a vote to leave the euro.
Today the EU is again warning of terrible effects from a no vote.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102802289
Tsipras argues it will do no such thing.
"Sunday, Greeks should vote "No!"
"Hellenic voters are being asked whether they accept the terms offered by the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund to extend the bailout for Athens' troubled finances or give Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras a mandate to insist on a better deal."
1. An end or at least a significant rollback of austerity.
This is what Tsipras wants and this is what he campaigned on and the Greek people voted for him based on that campaign so you'd think they would listen to him and vote no. But:
2. They also don't want to leave the euro.
So both sides have to frame the vote in a way that will make voters do what they want them to. The EU insists that a no vote is essentially not just a no vote on the Troika's latest proposal but a no on staying on the euro. Most Greeks don't want to leave the euro.
So Tsipras frames it as a vote simply to reject the latest EU proposal. He argues that a no vote is in no way a vote to leave the euro. He is basically arguing that Greeks should call the bluff of those who claim that it is a vote to leave the euro.
Today the EU is again warning of terrible effects from a no vote.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102802289
Tsipras argues it will do no such thing.
"Sunday, Greeks should vote "No!"
"Hellenic voters are being asked whether they accept the terms offered by the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund to extend the bailout for Athens' troubled finances or give Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras a mandate to insist on a better deal."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102802289
So often this is what politics is about. It's not a debate over matters of fact-both side roughly understand the same facts but the battle is over how these facts are interpreted, framed.
Tsipras may well be right. Even a no vote will not be the end of it. I mean the Greeks already defaulted their IMF payment on Tuesday and this wasn't the end of the world.
It's not at all clear what happens with a no vote. Even if Greece really is kicked of the euro it would take months for this to happen. It wouldn't be a change from night to day. It'd just be the start of another long process.
If this narrative is true the Tsipras is absolutely right to urge no. What the real impact of a yes vote would be would be political. The Greek people would more or less give back the power they won by electing Tsipras in defiance of the EU's wishes.
A yes vote is a kind of abdication. The vote more than anything is about who runs Greece-the Troika or the Greek people.
A no vote then is a vote for Tsipras and a yes vote is a vote against him-and to basically abdicate the running of the country to the EU.
The key issue regarding the Greek referendum on Sunday is who will lead the Greek government in the event that the vote is for more austerity, Charles Dallara said on Thursday. (Tweet this)
"The finance minister said he will resign, the prime minister has signaled implicitly that he will unlikely remain in charge of the Greek government, at least not in his current form. A lot of uncertainty prevails," he said in an interview with CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102806506
At a minimum though I agree that this vote is a welcome development even if in my mind they make a mistake. It's better to be strangled with austerity as the result of your choice than previously where it was being imposed without reference to your own will.
Robert Kimmitt, former U.S. deputy Treasury secretary, said that the vote is a good development because it allows the world to react to the voice of the Greek people.
"I think we have to recognize that politically European leaders now seem to trust the Greek voters more than they do the current Greek government. And therefore, we have to anticipate that anything that happens next week pivots off this vote both internally in Greece and more broadly in Europe," he told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" Thursday."
"Read More These ETFs could soar on Greek referendum"
"Kimmitt said he believes that Greece's future is stronger both in Europe and the euro zone. "I hope that's where the Greek people come out."
I don;t know if I agree with that vie that they're better off in the EZ but I agree that no matter what they vote for it's a major step forward that at least they're now getting the opportunity to vote. This in itself is reason to thank Tsipras who has become the bogeyman for EU leaning pundits.
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