In my last post I looked at the most pessimistic scenario-that he maybe caught flatfooted if he isn't prepared to leave the euro if that's what the EU chooses.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/eurozone-gradually-tightening.html
As for what is coming we are getting some mixed signals but clearly the Germans have continued to take an increasingly harder line. You can argue that in 5 years the German line never does anything but become harder.
Still, according to a major German newspaper Tsipras has already won. I have argued that the very fact of a vote is certainly a loss for the EU. Though they claim that somehow his timing for calling the vote was 'highly inappropriate'-which makes no sense; as the saying goes, If not now, when?-it's clear the real sin from the Neoliberal perspective is calling an election at all.
Why would the Greek people of all things have a right to vote on their country's economic future? The very idea-doesn't Sumner always tell us there is no such thing as public opinion in economics?
According to Die Zeit all Germany's tough talk is not credible:
"the editor of a major German newspaper, Die Zeit, believes Tsipras' "very clever game of chicken" will almost certainly pay off.
"German Chancellor Angela Merkel "knows she does not want to have a dead body on her hands -- not in Europe, not in her Europe," Josef Joffe told CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Monday.
"German threats, and everybody else's threats, are not credible."
http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/07/world/greece-joffe-amanpour/
"There will be no Grexit, neither enforced nor voluntary," Joffe said, using the shorthand term for a Greek exit from the eurozone. "The simple reason, which many people don't understand, is that even with a Grexit, Greece still remains in Europe, and therefore it will have access to all kinds of zillions of money. ... The only thing that will change is the spigots where the money runs through."
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/eurozone-gradually-tightening.html
As for what is coming we are getting some mixed signals but clearly the Germans have continued to take an increasingly harder line. You can argue that in 5 years the German line never does anything but become harder.
Still, according to a major German newspaper Tsipras has already won. I have argued that the very fact of a vote is certainly a loss for the EU. Though they claim that somehow his timing for calling the vote was 'highly inappropriate'-which makes no sense; as the saying goes, If not now, when?-it's clear the real sin from the Neoliberal perspective is calling an election at all.
Why would the Greek people of all things have a right to vote on their country's economic future? The very idea-doesn't Sumner always tell us there is no such thing as public opinion in economics?
According to Die Zeit all Germany's tough talk is not credible:
"the editor of a major German newspaper, Die Zeit, believes Tsipras' "very clever game of chicken" will almost certainly pay off.
"German Chancellor Angela Merkel "knows she does not want to have a dead body on her hands -- not in Europe, not in her Europe," Josef Joffe told CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Monday.
"German threats, and everybody else's threats, are not credible."
http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/07/world/greece-joffe-amanpour/
"There will be no Grexit, neither enforced nor voluntary," Joffe said, using the shorthand term for a Greek exit from the eurozone. "The simple reason, which many people don't understand, is that even with a Grexit, Greece still remains in Europe, and therefore it will have access to all kinds of zillions of money. ... The only thing that will change is the spigots where the money runs through."
As he points out the IMF has already said the obvious-that no way can Greece pay its debts without a restructuring.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-imf-undercuts-whole-anti-tsipras.html
"They said, listen, boys and girls, Greece cannot pay," Joffe said. "If the IMF tells you that, that's a resounding victory for Tsipras."
"European leaders -- despite their, by varying degrees, hardline rhetoric -- understand that the country will collapse without an injection of money, he said.
"Merkel knows that; Hollande knows it; and, above all, who else knows this? Tsipras."
"He has told Europeans, 'You know what? Come and punish us. You'll punish yourselves even more. Do you really want to collapse your economy? Do you really want chaos in the streets? Do you want another storm on the Bastille? You don't, do you?'
"Nobody wants to be in the position where he cuts his nose to spite his face.
"And that's why it is my considered bet that the Greeks have won this game of chicken. Wait a few days and you'll see."
"European leaders -- despite their, by varying degrees, hardline rhetoric -- understand that the country will collapse without an injection of money, he said.
"Merkel knows that; Hollande knows it; and, above all, who else knows this? Tsipras."
"He has told Europeans, 'You know what? Come and punish us. You'll punish yourselves even more. Do you really want to collapse your economy? Do you really want chaos in the streets? Do you want another storm on the Bastille? You don't, do you?'
"Nobody wants to be in the position where he cuts his nose to spite his face.
"And that's why it is my considered bet that the Greeks have won this game of chicken. Wait a few days and you'll see."
Ok, then Tsipras will truly have been right about everything. Today is the EU summit where Tsipras will offer up the Greek proposal.
"Euro zone leaders will meet today in Brussels to discuss how to proceed in the wake of the Greek “no” vote over the weekend rejected a proposed bailout deal. The meeting represents the Eurogroup’s last-ditch effort to reach a new bailout agreement with Greece that would cut off the possibility of the troubled country exiting the euro zone. The Greek government said on Monday that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will present a new proposal from the Greek side after more than 60% of the country’s voters balked at the strict austerity measures contained within the latest proposal submitted by Greece’s euro zone creditors."
http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/07/world/greece-joffe-amanpour/
It will be interesting to see what he offers-considering his country has rejected austerity.
No comments:
Post a Comment