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Saturday, July 11, 2015

Germany, Debt Relief and How to Know When the Stars Really Align

     It''s scarcely possible to believe but Ambrose Pritchard-who evidently is in the know regarding Syrzia and the negotiations-reports that Germany might be set to accept actual debt relief for Greece.

  "Germany is at last bowing to pressure as a chorus of countries and key institutions demand debt relief for Greece, a shift that could break the five-month stalemate and avert a potentially disastrous rupture of monetary union at this Sunday’s last-ditch summit."

   "In a highly significant move, the European Council has called on both sides to make major concessions, insisting that the creditor powers must do their part as the radical Syriza government puts forward a new raft of proposals on economic reforms before a deadline expires tonight."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11730086/Greek-deal-in-sight-as-Germany-bows-to-huge-global-pressure-for-debt-relief.html

   This is big news for Europe to actually admit that Greece will never repay all this debt:

   "This is the first time Europe's institutions have acknowledged clearly that Greece’s public debt – 180pc of GDP – can never be repaid and that no lasting solution can be found until the boil is lanced."

   "Any such deal would give Greek premier Alexis Tspiras a prize to take back to the Greek people after they voted by 61pc to 39pc to reject austerity demands in a landslide referendum last weekend."

  "While he would still have to deliver on tough reforms and breach key red lines, a debt restructuring of sufficient scale would probably be enough to clinch a deal, and allow him to return to Athens as a conquering hero."

  It seems that the US along with France, Italy and the IMF-which of course is located in Washington DC-had applied some helpful pressure to get this far.

 "German Chancellor Angela Merkel said “a classic haircut” is out of the question, but tacitly opened the door to other forms debt restructuring, conceding that it had already been done in 2012 by stretching out maturities."

 "A report by the IMF said a debt haircut of 30pc of GDP “would be required” to meet the original debt targets agreed in 2012. This could be achieved be stretching out the maturities of bonds to forty years and lowering the interest rate, sparing EMU governments the political pain of having to crystalize direct losses for their taxpayers."

 You haven't heard so much about what we're saying but behind the scene the US is making its presence-and its displeasure- felt.

 "The US has clearly lost patience with the Europeans is now bringing its huge diplomatic power to bear, fearing that mistakes in Greece could lead to a geostrategic fiasco and serious damage to the Nato alliance."

 "Greece’s debt is not sustainable,” said Jacob Lew, the US Treasury Secretary. “I think it’s a mistake for the European economy, the global economy, to take the risks that are involved with an uncontrolled crisis in Greece,” he said.

"Mr Lew said the two sides were only €2bn a part when talks broke down, yet potentially hundreds of billions are at stake if the crisis spins out of control. He deemed it a bizarre form of risk management."

  "Remember when liberals used to look longingly to Europe? Now I keep thanking God for our American government-in the White House anyway. We are finally seeing some-in the beginning stages admittedly-rollback of the Reagan Revolution-I'm thinking about stuff like Obama's gainful employment law for college loans and his push on wages by more than doubling the threshold for overtime."

  Then there is Obamacare which has again lowered uinsured rates.

   http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/10/health-uninsured-rate-falls-yet-again-under-obamacare.html

  When I see the way the EU has treated Greece I feel nothing but contempt whereas I look to Obama, Jack Lew, etc. and feel nothing but pride.

 Anyway, it sounds like this time there may finally be a deal-though if you've followed this crisis for 5 years you know never to count your chickens before they are hatched. Pritchard seems a good person to listen to as he is a genuine insider with Syrzia.

  P.S. Pritchard is an interesting guy. He's written some really terrible anti Clinton books but as a British conservative who opposes the EU he's been a very big supporter of Syrzia. So I'm not a fan of his writing on the Clintons but he is well worth the read on Greece as is a real source.

  I guess Britain can at least be grateful they didn't end up on the euro.

  P.S.S. The latest is that the Greek parliament voted for the package and it's now before the EU.

  http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/11/greece-crisis-eurogroup-meets-to-decide-greeces-fate.html
 P.S.S.S Pritchard just tweeted that according to a senior Greek banker there is a 90% chance of a deal. 
     

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