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Sunday, July 5, 2015

For Greeks Independence is July 5

     I think they made the right choice. Sumner is surprised:

   "Instant reactions to complex economic shocks are almost always wrong, but that’s never stopped me before. Much to my surprise, it has been reported that the No votes won by an overwhelming majority. "

   http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=29850&cpage=1#comment-393935

     I'm not surprised by the decision-I've been predicting it all week. 

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/a-no-vote-for-greeks-may-just-be-free.html

     I am suprised but heartened that it wasn't even close. 

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/it-looks-like-greek-eu-vote-will-be.html

     It seemed clear to me all week that the right move was for Greece to vote no:

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/nick-rowe-on-greece.html

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/stiglitz-on-greece-there-is-life-after.html

     The only question for me was whether enough Greeks would believe Trispas who was right despite all the criticism he's received by Sumner and most euro pundits. Sumner on what happens next:

   "It’s hard to imagine the EU offering dramatically better terms, although I suppose anything is possible. The fate of Podemos in Spain depends on whether the EU caves. If they do, Podemos is the next government of Spain. If they don’t, Podemos is in deep trouble. Keep in mind that Eurozone governments are among the major financiers of ISIS. If they are willing to finance terrorists, is it really so hard to believe they’d cave in and finance communists?"

     All this talk about ISIS and communists is just a red herring. As it happens I don't think it's out of the question that they will get better terms now. See Sumner has it backwards. He  assumes the Greeks would be better off cooperating with the EU when the opposite is the case. This is always the case when dealing with a bully. You're better off not cooperating-this way they may be forced to respect you. 

    The IMF after Greece defaulted on a payment last Tuesday is demanding that the ECB give Greece restructuring. 

   http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-imf-undercuts-whole-anti-tsipras.html

   Tsipras has argued that the referendum was not about leaving the euro but whether or not to accept the harsh EU agreement. I still think he may well be right. I think it's better than 50-50. Unless the Germans completely lose sight of their own interests. 

   http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/germany-will-never-let-greeks-leave-euro.html

   More Sumner:

   "Does the Greek government secretly want to leave the eurozone? That seems like the most plausible explanation for their erratic behavior, although I can’t be certain."

    No. Why do you ask? I mean I don't get the inference. They are willing to leave the euro if necessary. Their preference though is to stay in the euro but with better terms. 

    If they can't then the are willing to leave. 

   "European leaders have been saying a no vote means Grexit. If on Monday they are saying something different, they will look like complete fools."\

    No argument there-they are complete fools. With as great a deal as they get from Greece being in the euro and as little as it costs them to 'bailout' the Greeks it's sad they had to let it get this point. It's like what Mavin Miller had to teach MLB players-the owners will only take them seriously if they show they are willing to stirke. 

   Similarly only now that they show they are capable of leaving will European leaders offer a better deal. 

    P.S. As Krugman says, a win for not just the Greeks but the European idea. 

   http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/?_r=0

    

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