I think Kevin O'Rourke nails this takeaway.
There is no reason to negotiate with Germany:
"You are the prime minister Mr Tspiras. Did you not have a plan B to deal with ECB blackmail? If not, why not? Did you really think that the others would back down because of the possibility of Grexit, when it was so clear that you would be willing to do almost anything to avoid it?"
All in all a great day for Golden Dawn. As for the rest of us: I don’t suppose that any other left wing party that may come to power in the future seeking to challenge the current European economic policy mix will be as feckless as the Tspiras government. The lesson that they will draw from this debacle is: negotiating with Germany is a waste of time; be willing to act unilaterally, be willing to default unilaterally, have a plan for achieving primary surplus if you haven’t already achieved it, have a hard default and euro exit (now possible, thanks to the Germans) option in your back pocket, and be willing to use it at the first sign of hassle from the ECB. A deal could have been done today that would have strengthened the Eurozone, but instead it has just become a lot more fragile.
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2015/07/13/more-miscellaneous-irrations/
"Germany and other eurozone nations claim this unpleasant medicine is essential because the Tsipras government cannot be trusted to keep its word. But by treating the Greeks so severely they raise fundamental questions about the purpose of the eurozone. At its root the single currency is a political project. Stripped of this founding vision, it risks becoming little more than a utilitarian fixed exchange rate regime in which the strong push around the weak."
There is no reason to negotiate with Germany:
"You are the prime minister Mr Tspiras. Did you not have a plan B to deal with ECB blackmail? If not, why not? Did you really think that the others would back down because of the possibility of Grexit, when it was so clear that you would be willing to do almost anything to avoid it?"
All in all a great day for Golden Dawn. As for the rest of us: I don’t suppose that any other left wing party that may come to power in the future seeking to challenge the current European economic policy mix will be as feckless as the Tspiras government. The lesson that they will draw from this debacle is: negotiating with Germany is a waste of time; be willing to act unilaterally, be willing to default unilaterally, have a plan for achieving primary surplus if you haven’t already achieved it, have a hard default and euro exit (now possible, thanks to the Germans) option in your back pocket, and be willing to use it at the first sign of hassle from the ECB. A deal could have been done today that would have strengthened the Eurozone, but instead it has just become a lot more fragile.
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2015/07/13/more-miscellaneous-irrations/
The reason for this is because Germany doesn't negotiate. You have to just agree with everything Germany says. If you disagree even once then you already better have your exit plan.
On the other hand, this insight from the Financial Times I don't agree with:
. "Mr Tsipras has been his own worst enemy. He needlessly threw away whatever goodwill Greece might have enjoyed, pursuing an erratic strategy of bluff and bluster as his country’s economy slid back into depression and its banks went into slow-motion collapse. By the time he changed his tune, most sympathy for Greece’s plight had gone."
Has there any been any sympathy for Greece from Germany? It's true that this deal is even worse than the deal the Greeks had rejected just a week ago. So in that sense it's true that he could have gotten a better deal-or slightly less onerous-had he not called the referendum.
Still, I think it was good that he did-even though Ambrose Pritchard is right and he never intended to win it. The reason Greece had to be punished so severely is that it did the thing you're never supposed to do in the EU or in neoliberalism more generally-he got the voters involved. That was unprecedented in the EU.
However, even if this vote for vassalship passes-and even if it does it may not be in time-it's set a new precedent. The other precedent set was Germany's speculation about a 'short, 5 year Grexit.'
Overall, what is clear is the general nature of the EU. It's about anything sooner than it's about solidarity.
"Germany and other eurozone nations claim this unpleasant medicine is essential because the Tsipras government cannot be trusted to keep its word. But by treating the Greeks so severely they raise fundamental questions about the purpose of the eurozone. At its root the single currency is a political project. Stripped of this founding vision, it risks becoming little more than a utilitarian fixed exchange rate regime in which the strong push around the weak."
The next Tsipras then will be prepared with a well crafted exit strategy. As it is, we may still have Grexit now. It's probably coming at least in the medium term and could still come now.
It almost did.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f908e534-2942-11e5-8db8-c033edba8a6e.html#axzz3flujEkVV
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