It seems to me you can interpret how well the US equity market has performed post no vote in 2 ways.
1. The Greek issue really isn't moving markets one way or another. After all, problems in this tiny country have very little direct effect on the giant trillions of dollars US economy. The market is moving based on fundamentals of the US economy and sentiment about profits and earnings.
2. The US has for some reason become convinced that there will be a deal no matter what. If this is the real sentiment of the US then if there is not a deal look for the market to tank at some point much like Wylie Coyote after he realizes that he's running in the air.
I'm at least dubious about 1 because the US market has moved in the past over Greece. Last Monday it tanked with Europe after Tsipras called for the referendum.
Since that Monday, June 29, though the market has been very healthy. So what is is that the market finds so reassuring? Today the Dow was down 200 points until news that there would be a big meeting of all 28 heads in the EU this Sunday.
The IMF has been right about 2 major issues in a row:
"U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday after a choppy trading session as investors eyed developments in the Greece debt crisis and the start of corporate earnings season. ( Tweet This )"
"The S&P 500 fell below that key level for its first time since October 20."
"We broke the 200 day moving average ... and around that time the market began to stabilize," said Robert Pavlik chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth, adding that the S&P 500 also hit a support level of 2,045 and has since bounced back."
"The major averages opened higher but quickly turned lower before rising once again in afternoon trade."
"I think there are two factors here: one is a technical bonce on the S&P from the 2,045 support level and another is the [International Monetary Fund] warning the Fed not to raise rates again," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Capital."
"The IMF reiterated that the Federal Reserve should not raise interest rates until 2016n on Tuesday."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102814251
Again, you can see this as the glass half full or half empty. The half full view is the sharp bounce back from minus 200-the sharpest inter-day rally since 2011.
The glass half empty view is that this is the first time the S&P has fell beneath the 200 day moving average since last October-that was the panic over the drop in oil and commodities.
It's also notable that while the US stocks have done well to start this week the European markets in Britain, Germany, and France have fallen hard 2 straight days.
True the direct effect of Greece on the US is small but the question is how much a Grexit would hurt Europe-I think it could spell the beginning of the end of the euro which would cause some real problems with Europe our biggest trade partners.
2. The US has for some reason become convinced that there will be a deal no matter what. If this is the real sentiment of the US then if there is not a deal look for the market to tank at some point much like Wylie Coyote after he realizes that he's running in the air.
I'm at least dubious about 1 because the US market has moved in the past over Greece. Last Monday it tanked with Europe after Tsipras called for the referendum.
Since that Monday, June 29, though the market has been very healthy. So what is is that the market finds so reassuring? Today the Dow was down 200 points until news that there would be a big meeting of all 28 heads in the EU this Sunday.
The IMF has been right about 2 major issues in a row:
"U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday after a choppy trading session as investors eyed developments in the Greece debt crisis and the start of corporate earnings season. ( Tweet This )"
"The S&P 500 fell below that key level for its first time since October 20."
"We broke the 200 day moving average ... and around that time the market began to stabilize," said Robert Pavlik chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth, adding that the S&P 500 also hit a support level of 2,045 and has since bounced back."
"The major averages opened higher but quickly turned lower before rising once again in afternoon trade."
"I think there are two factors here: one is a technical bonce on the S&P from the 2,045 support level and another is the [International Monetary Fund] warning the Fed not to raise rates again," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Capital."
"The IMF reiterated that the Federal Reserve should not raise interest rates until 2016n on Tuesday."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102814251
Again, you can see this as the glass half full or half empty. The half full view is the sharp bounce back from minus 200-the sharpest inter-day rally since 2011.
The glass half empty view is that this is the first time the S&P has fell beneath the 200 day moving average since last October-that was the panic over the drop in oil and commodities.
It's also notable that while the US stocks have done well to start this week the European markets in Britain, Germany, and France have fallen hard 2 straight days.
True the direct effect of Greece on the US is small but the question is how much a Grexit would hurt Europe-I think it could spell the beginning of the end of the euro which would cause some real problems with Europe our biggest trade partners.
P.S. It's not clear why the Fed wants to raise rates this year other than it just seems in their mind to be the right thing to do-after all rates have been low for a long time, surely it's time to raise them.
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