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Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Sumner on FDR vs. Varoufakis on Welcoming Hatred

     He makes the analogy that I've noticed to-Varoufakis said something like what FDR said about 'they hate me and I welcome their hatred.'

   "Greek finance minister Varoufakis got a lot of attention a few months back with this tweet:

  " FDR, 1936: “They are unanimous in their hate for me; and I welcome their hatred.” A quotation close to my heart (& reality) these days

   "There are indeed a number of striking similarities between FDR and Syriza. The one I’ve been thinking about most recently occurred in June 1933. FDR’s representatives had been in Europe trying to negotiate a restoration of fixed exchange rates at the World Monetary Conference. They were getting close to agreement when FDR issued a shocking statement favoring flexible rates that undercut his representatives and blew apart the conference. Sound familiar? FDR took pleasure in outraging the VSPs of his day. Yes, in temperament Varoufakis is something like FDR."

    "I’m a big fan of FDR’s policy of devaluation, so why am I not a big fan of Varoufakis? My critics think it’s all mood affiliation. Maybe so, but recall that I am also a market monetarist. And the “market” part refers to the fact that I believe markets provide the best indicator of the likely effect of policy shocks."

    "In 1933 the Wall Street elite were horrified by FDR’s replacing the gold dollar with a “rubber” dollar, having a flexible value. And yet US stock prices soared on each and every outrageous statement by FDR, such as when he torpedoed the WMC in late June. The Greek stock market was closed during the recent vote (and remains closed) but both Greek and European stocks responded negatively to information suggesting that Syriza was unwilling to deal during the month of June, and then rose on hopes for an agreement. Those contrasting market reactions are probably telling us that there are small but important differences between the US in 1933 and Greece today."

   "To end on a fair and balanced note:

    "1. The market would probably also welcome more European flexibility in striking a deal."

    "2. The fact that FDR was right when all the VSPs thought he was wrong should make us cautious about judging the Greek situation. It’s certainly possible that Varoufakis is right and I am wrong."

    "PS. Between mid-April and mid-July 1933, US stocks were even rising sharply in gold terms, despite rapid depreciation of the US dollar against gold."

    http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=29875

   Wow, a little humility from Sumner-who'd have predicted that one?

   "Fro the record this was Varoufakis-the finance minister who fell on his sword after 'winning the vote' on Sunday.

    "Like all struggles for democratic rights, so too this historic rejection of the Eurogroup’s 25th June ultimatum comes with a large price tag attached. It is, therefore, essential that the great capital bestowed upon our government by the splendid NO vote be invested immediately into a YES to a proper resolution – to an agreement that involves debt restructuring, less austerity, redistribution in favour of the needy, and real reforms."

    "Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my… ‘absence’ from its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the Ministry of Finance today."

    "I consider it my duty to help Alexis Tsipras exploit, as he sees fit, the capital that the Greek people granted us through yesterday’s referendum."

    "And I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride."

    http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/

    "Whether he's right or not you have to admit he has the best lines. In principle Sumner is arguing that the difference between FDR and Syrzia is that what FDR did the market supported. I don't think there's any doubt that the market wants a deal-they certainly don't want a Grexit. "

     "I can understand that-if you have a lot of investments in Europe you'd be concerned about a breakup of the euro. The markets consider such a scenario bearish. This would seem to show that Germany is wrong in their implicit suggestion that the EU will be better of without Greece."

    "As for Greece, Sumner's buddy Lars Christensen as well as Krugman suggest Grexit may be the best alternative at this point."

    "To be sure, it's not clear that Greece really wants a Grexit even if it is in their best interests.

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-grexit-nobody-wanted.html

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