Of course, you can argue whether that's a good thing-maybe it's good as it suggests there isn't going to be a Grexit vote. The title of this post is inspired by Ed Conway-one of the big economic reporters who has been covering the EU meeting.
He has a book on Bretton Woods that I just bought.
http://www.edmundconway.com/books/thesummit/
http://www.amazon.com/Summit-Bretton-Keynes-Reshaping-Economy-ebook/dp/B00LADUP06/ref=tmm_kin_title_0?_encoding=UTF8&sr=&qid=
It sounds like Greece may be given more demands they have to fulfill-first before they get the money.
"EUROPEAN COMMISSION VICE-PRESIDENT VALDIS DOMBROVSKIS:"
"Discussions were quite complicated so we hope for more progress today. I
think it's utterly unlikely the European Commission will get a mandate to start
formal negotiations as regards a third programme or ESM programme today. But I
think the Eurogroup can prepare and provide input for discussions of the leaders
later today."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/12/greece-crisis-deadline-for-greece-as-european-leaders-meet.html
At present, there is a deadlock in the EU-as usual, the fault line is Franco-German.
"Eurozone finance ministers are gathering on Sunday morning for a renewed attempt to end the deadlock in the Greek crisis after marathon talks over a possible third €53.5bn rescue programme for Athens broke up without agreement."
"Following nine hours of tense discussions finishing shortly before midnight in Brussels, the 19-member group still face deep differences between Greece and most of its creditors."
. "Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem said: “It’s still very difficult but work is still in progress.” Luis de Guindos, the Spanish finance minister, said: “It could have been better, it could have been worse.”
"The deadlock prolongs the uncertainty hanging over the troubled Greek economy and increases the risks that the country could be forced out of the eurozone. A meeting of all 28 EU leaders, scheduled to happen on Sunday, has now been cancelled. Instead, the 19 eurozone leaders will meet at 4pm in a last ditch attempt to agree a deal."
"While France has supported the radical Greek government’s latest bid to secure a deal, Germany has led a chorus of sceptics, raising doubts about Greek premier Alexis Tsipras’s ability to deliver the tough measures he has promised in his new plan."
"The German finance ministry raised the possibility of a five-year timeout from the eurozone for Greece, according to a finance ministry position paper that leaked on Saturday."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/700688d6-27da-11e5-8db8-c033edba8a6e.html#ixzz3ffOpCBaX
France now worries that with a Grexit, Germany will be able to dictate the future course of the EU in their direction.
"Paris made a surprise comeback on the European stage this week. As the crisis over Greece approaches a decisive moment, President François Hollande has presented himself as a potential bridge builder between Athens and its creditors. His officials also reportedly helped draft the reform proposal that Alexis Tsipras, Greek prime minister, sent to the lenders late on Thursday night."
"Such moves were eye-catching. Until now Paris has largely, if reluctantly, quietly followed Berlin’s eurozone policy of providing aid but at the same time pushing hard for reforms to the governance of the euro area that follow German economic thinking. Now, by opposing Berlin’s position on how to deal with Greece, Paris has exposed a deep rift in the euro area about the very nature of monetary union itself."
"Paris fears that alongside the geopolitical consequences of a Greek exit from the euro, there is a strong likelihood that the eurozone would end up becoming more German. If the eurozone lets one country go, only a very strong demonstration of political will would keep the remaining countries together in the currency union. Berlin would lead this initiative and finally be able to pull out the plans for further reforms to euro area governance that have been lying ready in a drawer in the German finance ministry. From France’s perspective, standing up for Greece may be the last chance to prevent that."
"After a Grexit, Angela Merkel, German chancellor, and her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble would have new allies for reform to add to Berlin’s traditional ones, such as the Netherlands and Austria. Eurozone members in central Europe and the Baltics, as well as southern countries such as Portugal and Spain that have undertaken tough structural reform programmes, would be likely to side with Berlin."
"Thus, the French fear, the Germanic rules-guided co-ordination of policy would be strengthened, further institutionalising an orthodox economic approach. If that happens, Germany may be willing to cede more power to supranational institutions that could have a say on national budgets or to remove sovereignty when rules are breached."
"That is not a model Paris would subscribe to. As an economy that largely relies on domestic consumption to drive growth, France has a much stronger inclination to favour policies that foster consumer demand. While no sensible politician in Paris denies the necessity of supply-side reforms, the basic assumption remains that a sound growth and investment environment is the prerequisite both for budgetary consolidation and reforms."
"Moreover, while Germany’s rules-based model seeks to depoliticise policymaking, the French approach has politics at its heart: Paris has championed summits of eurozone leaders since the inception of the single currency."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/202ddcb6-1dcf-11e5-ab0f-6bb9974f25d0.html#ixzz3ffRlJaXV
In other words, Germany seeks for EU rules to further usurp the national voters of the different EU countries.
I guess the more optimistic view would argue the Germans are just trying to strengthen their negotiating stance by making a credible threat of Grexit. However, it's not unreasonable to suspect that they may not be acting. They certainly have liked to bring up that theme this week.
He has a book on Bretton Woods that I just bought.
http://www.edmundconway.com/books/thesummit/
http://www.amazon.com/Summit-Bretton-Keynes-Reshaping-Economy-ebook/dp/B00LADUP06/ref=tmm_kin_title_0?_encoding=UTF8&sr=&qid=
It sounds like Greece may be given more demands they have to fulfill-first before they get the money.
"EUROPEAN COMMISSION VICE-PRESIDENT VALDIS DOMBROVSKIS:"
"Discussions were quite complicated so we hope for more progress today. I
think it's utterly unlikely the European Commission will get a mandate to start
formal negotiations as regards a third programme or ESM programme today. But I
think the Eurogroup can prepare and provide input for discussions of the leaders
later today."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/12/greece-crisis-deadline-for-greece-as-european-leaders-meet.html
At present, there is a deadlock in the EU-as usual, the fault line is Franco-German.
"Eurozone finance ministers are gathering on Sunday morning for a renewed attempt to end the deadlock in the Greek crisis after marathon talks over a possible third €53.5bn rescue programme for Athens broke up without agreement."
"Following nine hours of tense discussions finishing shortly before midnight in Brussels, the 19-member group still face deep differences between Greece and most of its creditors."
. "Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem said: “It’s still very difficult but work is still in progress.” Luis de Guindos, the Spanish finance minister, said: “It could have been better, it could have been worse.”
"The deadlock prolongs the uncertainty hanging over the troubled Greek economy and increases the risks that the country could be forced out of the eurozone. A meeting of all 28 EU leaders, scheduled to happen on Sunday, has now been cancelled. Instead, the 19 eurozone leaders will meet at 4pm in a last ditch attempt to agree a deal."
"While France has supported the radical Greek government’s latest bid to secure a deal, Germany has led a chorus of sceptics, raising doubts about Greek premier Alexis Tsipras’s ability to deliver the tough measures he has promised in his new plan."
"The German finance ministry raised the possibility of a five-year timeout from the eurozone for Greece, according to a finance ministry position paper that leaked on Saturday."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/700688d6-27da-11e5-8db8-c033edba8a6e.html#ixzz3ffOpCBaX
France now worries that with a Grexit, Germany will be able to dictate the future course of the EU in their direction.
"Paris made a surprise comeback on the European stage this week. As the crisis over Greece approaches a decisive moment, President François Hollande has presented himself as a potential bridge builder between Athens and its creditors. His officials also reportedly helped draft the reform proposal that Alexis Tsipras, Greek prime minister, sent to the lenders late on Thursday night."
"Such moves were eye-catching. Until now Paris has largely, if reluctantly, quietly followed Berlin’s eurozone policy of providing aid but at the same time pushing hard for reforms to the governance of the euro area that follow German economic thinking. Now, by opposing Berlin’s position on how to deal with Greece, Paris has exposed a deep rift in the euro area about the very nature of monetary union itself."
"Paris fears that alongside the geopolitical consequences of a Greek exit from the euro, there is a strong likelihood that the eurozone would end up becoming more German. If the eurozone lets one country go, only a very strong demonstration of political will would keep the remaining countries together in the currency union. Berlin would lead this initiative and finally be able to pull out the plans for further reforms to euro area governance that have been lying ready in a drawer in the German finance ministry. From France’s perspective, standing up for Greece may be the last chance to prevent that."
"After a Grexit, Angela Merkel, German chancellor, and her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble would have new allies for reform to add to Berlin’s traditional ones, such as the Netherlands and Austria. Eurozone members in central Europe and the Baltics, as well as southern countries such as Portugal and Spain that have undertaken tough structural reform programmes, would be likely to side with Berlin."
"Thus, the French fear, the Germanic rules-guided co-ordination of policy would be strengthened, further institutionalising an orthodox economic approach. If that happens, Germany may be willing to cede more power to supranational institutions that could have a say on national budgets or to remove sovereignty when rules are breached."
"That is not a model Paris would subscribe to. As an economy that largely relies on domestic consumption to drive growth, France has a much stronger inclination to favour policies that foster consumer demand. While no sensible politician in Paris denies the necessity of supply-side reforms, the basic assumption remains that a sound growth and investment environment is the prerequisite both for budgetary consolidation and reforms."
"Moreover, while Germany’s rules-based model seeks to depoliticise policymaking, the French approach has politics at its heart: Paris has championed summits of eurozone leaders since the inception of the single currency."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/202ddcb6-1dcf-11e5-ab0f-6bb9974f25d0.html#ixzz3ffRlJaXV
In other words, Germany seeks for EU rules to further usurp the national voters of the different EU countries.
I guess the more optimistic view would argue the Germans are just trying to strengthen their negotiating stance by making a credible threat of Grexit. However, it's not unreasonable to suspect that they may not be acting. They certainly have liked to bring up that theme this week.
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