Pace that piece I did about Ezra Klein's theory that the EU may have been bluffing.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/what-happens-next-depends-on-whether-or.html
Bernstein also seems to think this may prove the be the case-though he admits that it's just his best, most, educated guess.
"Thus, to some of the harshest austerians from the north — such as Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s vice chancellor and economy minister — the Greeks have“torn down the last bridges, across which Europe and Greece could move toward a compromise.” To him, the outcome of the vote is simply Greek for: “You can’t fire me. I quit.”
"I think he’s wrong, and although this could easily be wishful thinking on my part, I believe the more likely outcome is that the parties will return to the bargaining table with a better understanding among the creditors of the way forward."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/07/05/a-resounding-no-from-greece/?hpid=z9
He then makes a point I've made myself a number of times today-the IMF itself seems to be getting it after Greece didn't pay them last week:
"One important and, amid the hurly burly of the past few days, overlooked clue that this more optimistic path may now be open is a new International Monetary Fund analysis that finally recognizes the limited ability of Greece to repay all of its outstanding debts and even more important, its inability to grow its way out of this mess unless a significant portion of the debt is restructured. For the record, that’s what Varoufakis has been saying for months and others among us have been saying for years. And contrary to her economic minister, according to John Cassidy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and “many European leaders” share that recognition."
So yes some reason for optimism though I think it's fair to say that at this point we can't be too confident about what happens next. I do think this is plausible but there are enough mixed signals for me not to make a categorical prediction.
Meanwhile, Lars Christensen has done some great work on the future of Greece on Market Monetarist today. It's clear Sumner and I will never be friends but some of his MM friends have deon some real good work on the EU crisis-better than him which might explain his frustration.
http://marketmonetarist.com/2015/06/28/how-the-recovery-will-look-like-when-greece-leaves-the-euro/
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/what-happens-next-depends-on-whether-or.html
Bernstein also seems to think this may prove the be the case-though he admits that it's just his best, most, educated guess.
"Thus, to some of the harshest austerians from the north — such as Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s vice chancellor and economy minister — the Greeks have“torn down the last bridges, across which Europe and Greece could move toward a compromise.” To him, the outcome of the vote is simply Greek for: “You can’t fire me. I quit.”
"I think he’s wrong, and although this could easily be wishful thinking on my part, I believe the more likely outcome is that the parties will return to the bargaining table with a better understanding among the creditors of the way forward."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/07/05/a-resounding-no-from-greece/?hpid=z9
He then makes a point I've made myself a number of times today-the IMF itself seems to be getting it after Greece didn't pay them last week:
"One important and, amid the hurly burly of the past few days, overlooked clue that this more optimistic path may now be open is a new International Monetary Fund analysis that finally recognizes the limited ability of Greece to repay all of its outstanding debts and even more important, its inability to grow its way out of this mess unless a significant portion of the debt is restructured. For the record, that’s what Varoufakis has been saying for months and others among us have been saying for years. And contrary to her economic minister, according to John Cassidy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and “many European leaders” share that recognition."
So yes some reason for optimism though I think it's fair to say that at this point we can't be too confident about what happens next. I do think this is plausible but there are enough mixed signals for me not to make a categorical prediction.
Meanwhile, Lars Christensen has done some great work on the future of Greece on Market Monetarist today. It's clear Sumner and I will never be friends but some of his MM friends have deon some real good work on the EU crisis-better than him which might explain his frustration.
http://marketmonetarist.com/2015/06/28/how-the-recovery-will-look-like-when-greece-leaves-the-euro/
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