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Friday, July 3, 2015

It Looks Like the Greek EU Vote Will Be Very Close

     According to the polls Greeks are split down the middle:

   "The latest opinion poll, conducted by the ALCO polling institute and published in the Ethnos newspaper on Friday, pointed to a close result. The "yes" vote supporting creditors' reform proposals came in at 44.8 percent, the "no" vote stood at 43.4 percent, and 1.8 percent were undecided."

    "However, it also showed that 74 percent wanted to remain in the euro, against 15 percent, who wanted a "national currency."

     http://www.cnbc.com/id/102808101

    Yes, they want to stay in the euro which makes this election all about framing-and which framing the voters end up believing. Because there are 2 facts about Greek opinion that might seem contradictory:

    1. They want to remain in the euro.

    2. They are weary of austerity and won''t it to stop or at least greatly slow. Yet the referendum is the EU proposal that calls for a lot more pain.

    This according to the euro pundits is contradictory because they can't stay n the euro and get a 'bailout' if they don't agree to austerity.

    However, there is a good argument that this is not about whether or not they stay in the euro-the Germans will never let them leave anyway

   http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/germany-and-greece-cowhos-parasite.html

   in which case this vote is not about leaving the euro but rather whether or not they accept a bad deal by the EU authorities-just as Tsipras has argued.

  http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/a-no-vote-for-greeks-may-just-be-free.html

   So in a way it's not surprising the vote is so close as they Greeks want both to stay in the euro but not have to eat more deals like the EU proposal up for vote Sunday. However, it also shows that a lot of people are missing Tsipras' point that this vote really is about the EU proposal and not about staying in the euro.

   Ie, what the Greeks are actually voting for on Sunday is whether or not to come to a deal from a position of strength or weakness: it's av vote on Greek sovereignty-a no vote is a yes to sovereignty.

 
  

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