Certainly the optimism has soared the last 2 days that there will be a deal. Ambrose Pritchard had it on the autority of a senior Greek banker that a deal is looking like a 90% proposition.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/a-90-chance-of-deal-on-greece.html
Even if so, though, there remains a non-trivial chance that there won't be one. Some has cautioned that if the creditors-or the Germans and/or the Dutch-don't want one it can still be shuttled.
Earlier, we got the preliminary news that the Greeks had cleared the first hurdle:
"Greece has cleared the first hurdle in its attempt to stay in the eurozone after the bloc’s bailout monitors gave the go-ahead for negotiations over a future rescue programme."
"The so-called “institutions”, which consist of the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF, said that the Greek proposals could be a “basis” for a new bailout programme under “certain conditions”, according to two officials."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0b88481a-27ba-11e5-8db8-c033edba8a6e.html#ixzz3fchaY4UG
Could be a basis-pretty careful language but sounds optimistic. However, now we see this tweet by Holland's finance minister, Alexander Stubbs:
"End of #Eurogroup session. To be continued tomorrow."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/11/greece-crisis-eurogroup-meets-to-decide-greeces-fate.htmlh
Nine hours aren't enough. Also it seems Tripas' proposal is not enough.
"Euro zone finance ministers were trying to draft a joint statement on Saturday listing further measures they want Greece to take in order to launch negotiations on a bailout Athens has requested, an EU source said."
"The Greek government has put forward a set of reform plans to meet conditions for a three-year loan from euro zone partners but finance ministers said they did not go far enough and several sources said the other 18 euro zone states want Athens to offer additional actions and guarantees of implementation. "
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/11/greece-crisis-eurogroup-meets-to-decide-greeces-fate.html
It's the No True Scotsman doctrine applied to austerity agreements. You can never have enough austerity to please the EU.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/07/a-90-chance-of-deal-on-greece.html
Even if so, though, there remains a non-trivial chance that there won't be one. Some has cautioned that if the creditors-or the Germans and/or the Dutch-don't want one it can still be shuttled.
Earlier, we got the preliminary news that the Greeks had cleared the first hurdle:
"Greece has cleared the first hurdle in its attempt to stay in the eurozone after the bloc’s bailout monitors gave the go-ahead for negotiations over a future rescue programme."
"The so-called “institutions”, which consist of the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF, said that the Greek proposals could be a “basis” for a new bailout programme under “certain conditions”, according to two officials."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0b88481a-27ba-11e5-8db8-c033edba8a6e.html#ixzz3fchaY4UG
Could be a basis-pretty careful language but sounds optimistic. However, now we see this tweet by Holland's finance minister, Alexander Stubbs:
"End of #Eurogroup session. To be continued tomorrow."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/11/greece-crisis-eurogroup-meets-to-decide-greeces-fate.htmlh
Nine hours aren't enough. Also it seems Tripas' proposal is not enough.
"Euro zone finance ministers were trying to draft a joint statement on Saturday listing further measures they want Greece to take in order to launch negotiations on a bailout Athens has requested, an EU source said."
"The Greek government has put forward a set of reform plans to meet conditions for a three-year loan from euro zone partners but finance ministers said they did not go far enough and several sources said the other 18 euro zone states want Athens to offer additional actions and guarantees of implementation. "
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/11/greece-crisis-eurogroup-meets-to-decide-greeces-fate.html
It's the No True Scotsman doctrine applied to austerity agreements. You can never have enough austerity to please the EU.
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