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Monday, March 12, 2012

Once Again: Fiscal vs. Monetary Stimulus

     Delong just posted a pretty good tackling of this issue which is welcome. After Monetarists, like Sumner, et al. have spent so much time trying to convince us that fiscal stimulus is wrong and fruitless finally we have a quality Keynesian stepping into the question.

      http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/03/thoughts-on-monetary-vs-fiscal-policy-in-a-liquidity-trap.html

     To be sure this is in a long tradition like when Friedman and Walter Heller co-sponsored a book together that tried to put both arguments together.

     While it's tempting to frame this as Monetarists vs. Fiscalists, there is a certain asymmetry between the two. Monetarists desire to only use monetary policy to deal with downturns and recessions. The "Fiscalists" don't claim that monetary policy plays not part.

       Here is how Delong finishes the above linked post:

       "Thus fiscal and monetary policy are likely to both have proper stabilization policy roles to play."

        The main reason to prefer monetary to fiscal policy is that the latter is held to be distortionary:

         "the claim that monetary policy is non-distortionary is subject to question when the real interest rate that produces total spending equal to potential output is negative. In such a case, monetary policy works by artificially pushing the real interest rate r down well below its full-optimum level to compensate for other market failures. The relative overproduction of long-duration and underproduction of short-duration assets in the present is not small, and the claim of no first-order losses is not clearly relevant."

      "In addition, there are the behavioral-finance fears: a market in which interest rates are very low is a market in which many financial institutions will make inappropriate judgments about long-run risk and return, as they find themselves driven by institutional and other imperatives to “reach for yield”. [7] A low cost of funds makes mark-to-model accounting easier to sustain. When the cost of funds is substantial, maintaining positive cash flow requires much more frequent testing of models by marking-to-market. And an entire financial industry engaged in unchecked mark-to-model accounting is dangerous."

      "It is important to get the overall level of production right--to match total spending to potential output. It is also presumably important to direct spending toward high-value commodities. It is important to get the balance between private and public purchases right. And it is important to get the balance between short-duration and long-duration assets right."

     "Thus fiscal and monetary policy are likely to both have proper stabilization policy roles to play."

     

      

2 comments:

  1. The problem with fiscal policy is that cost per job is very high. Even Democrat quote number of over $100,000 per job. Those are $30,000/year jobs. Better a wage subsidy.

    Now if you want to fiscal policy distribute some money to low earners by say exempting the 1st $25,000 in earning from FICA that would be good, if you need roads and bridges built and repaired this is a good time for it but other than that monetary policy seems a better choice.

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  2. What seems clear though is this. If there's ever a time for the government to borrow, now is the time when our "creditors' are willing to pay us to lend us money.

    I'm not entirely clear on where the $100,000 a year figure comes from-I'm not necessarily disputing it, I've seen similar figures before, just that I haven't seen firesthand how it works so I can't be sure whether this is an "apples to apples" comparison.

    Then again if I accept it for the sake of argument, well is it worth it? From a properly Olumpian disinterested standpoint no-if you are losing $70,000 per job.

    What though if you are not so Olympian, because you can't afford to be? What if you are one of the jobless who are truly at the point of desparaton? Even if this is a bad deal net for society from an accounting standpoint it's a great deal for you. Why are you supposed to be more Olympian than selfish welathy people crying about a couple extra dollars a week in gas?

    Then too, even if we are net minus $70,000 if the $70,000 is coming mostly out of the pocket of the wealthy is that such a problem?

    Here I have no doubt is a value judgement. Some will see this as very aggregious-on the Right-and will claim that it will have larger ontoward effects on the macroeconomy.

    Some on the left-and believe me I don't hate the rich nearly as much as many leftists these days hate the rich-will have no problem with it.

    Again, believe it or not I don't hate the rich-I've been banned from liberal blogs that thoght I was a conservative-Left and Right are all about perspective- But I'd have a hard time understanding why it's so much more unfair for the rich to be out $70,000 a head than for others to be jobless or even homeless.

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