Pages

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Treasury Rates Rise: Fed Message Gone Awry?

      The latest Fed comments seem to have caused a clear market reaction. It's debatable whether the reaction has been stronger than what they were looking for.

     "The most dramatic move Wednesday was in the bond market, where a major selloff sent rates higher, to levels last seen in October. The stock market was barely changed, but gold sold off sharply and the dollar rose against other major currencies. The 30-year was yielding 3.40 late in the day, and the 10-year yield was at 2.27 percent."

      http://www.cnbc.com/id/46740601

      Bond interest rates went up as Treasuries were sold off. The causes seem to be several. First the Fed's comments are interpreted as QE3 likely not in the cards. We've also seen the dollar rise since Bernanke spoke.

     "Nomura currency strategist Jens Nordvig, in a note, called the dollar’s rise healthy, while Deutsche Bank strategist Alan Ruskin said the market has taken away the “Fed’s punch bowl,” referring to the effects of more easing. Fed officials have said they could buy mortgage securities to send rates lower, if the economy needs help, but some market participants see another Fed easing as less likely."

     The belief that things are turning around is a large reason for it. With the positive stress tests for the bank and the restructuring deal going through in Europe with Greek debt, this could be a time were investors risk appetite finally rises.

    It's still very early in this. "Several strategists say while rates could continue to rise, they don’t expect them to rise much further without dramatic improvement in the economy, and that could cap the dollar’s gains. The dollar index is up 0.4 percent for the year-to-date so far."

    Of course if this concerns the Fed they can take steps to bring the rates back down. The question is whether the recovery will sustain itself. If it does then rising rates are actually a positive sign. Low rates are a sign of economic weakness.

No comments:

Post a Comment