Friday, December 4, 2015

Take That Nate Silver

The Nate Silver jibe relates to a recent post I did regarding his take on Trump's chances.

Nate may well be right though he's hardly infallible-remember when he thought that Scott Walker was going to soar?

Anyway right now as a Trump Democrat I feel like I'm in a McDonald's commercial, because I'm loving it. 

Donald Trump opens 'yuge' lead over GOP field in CNN/ORC national poll"

"Donald Trump is the top choice of more than one out of every three Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters, according to the results of a new CNN/ORC poll released Friday. And it's not even close — at 36 percent, Trump's closest competitor for the GOP presidential nomination is Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, at 16 percent."

"Ben Carson, who finished second in the October CNN/ORC poll, fell to third this time with 14 percent. Following the retired neurosurgeon, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio earned 12 percent, with no other candidate finishing in the double digits."

Read more:

It's not hard to guess what they're saying at Jeb's campaign today: Houston, we have a problem.

"New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie earned 4 percent, followed by Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina at 3 percent each, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 2 percent each and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 1 percent. Other candidates failed to register support, while 2 percent said they had no opinion."

Read more:

"In an early post regarding Christie, Rubio, and the establishments' chances I did admit something Nate tends to focus on-that if all the other establishment candidates in NH dropped out but one-maybe Christie, who's currently rising, or Rubio that the establishment candidate would have about 40% in NH-though the outsiders still would have 49%."
But nationally the picture is really bleak for the establishment: Rubio, Christie, Jeb, Kasich, and Fiorina, garner just 24%. with 66% going to Cruz, Carson, and Trump. We always hear the Serious Pndits confidently tell us no way Trump breaks above 25 to 30%. Maybe but he did in this poll-and he had just a 1 point lead last month in the same poll. 

If 66% are for insiders when exactly are these voters going to come back to the establishment fold?

And no, it doesn't look as if Trump's latest spate of wild comments about Muslims is hurting Trump at all despite the outrage of many outraged Serious Pundits.

"Friday's poll provides further evidence that declarations that the summer of Trump would fizzle in the fall were premature. Trump has not eased off his inflammatory comments, including his assertion that he saw footage of thousands of Muslims in New Jersey celebrating as the World Trade Center came down on 9/11. And in the wake of Nov. 13 terrorist attacks in Paris, Trump offered up a suggestion of a database of Muslims and restarting formal surveillance in New York City of mosques and Muslim communities."

"I'm gonna get people jobs and I'm going to protect people. And that's why whenever there's a tragedy, everything goes up, my numbers go way up because we have no strength in this country, we have weak, sad politicians," Trump told CNN on Thursday, as Americans were still reeling from Wednesday's shooting massacre in San Bernardino, California."

"Trump also got a bump in a Quinnipiac University survey released earlier this week, edging up 3 points to 27 percent, as Carson tumbled 7 points. In RealClearPolitics' average of polling, Trump is also dominating with 30.8 percent support, more than 18 points ahead of Carson, who is still in second at 17.5 percent."

Read more:

It's not hard to see why Trump keeps saying Muslims were cheering: this is what the base believes. It's just like with Birtherism. Neither conspiracy theory originated with Trump but by embracing it, he validates the base. So of course his numbers are rising.

Trump also has a 'yuge lead' on various issues of importance.

"In Friday's CNN/ORC poll, regardless of whom they plan to vote for, majorities or pluralities said Trump is best qualified to tackle issues related to the economy (55 percent, with Cruz next closest at 9 percent), illegal immigration (48 percent to Rubio's 14 percent), foreign policy (30 percent to Cruz's 17 percent), the Islamic State (46 percent to Cruz's 15 percent) and the federal budget (51 percent to Cruz's 10 percent)."

Read more:

Nate Silver has also said that leading issues is also not predictive of the eventual winner. Maybe not, but it's still shocking both the breadth of his leads on literally every issue across the board.

Maybe it's not predictive of success but it sure isn't predictive of failure.

I do have a bone to pick with Democrat insiders. Don't say out loud that you think Trump will be easy for Hillary to beat! LOL

At least some of them hedged their bets. Of course, the GOP insiders know this too and know the Dem insiders know it.

Happily, GOP primary voters believe the exact opposite: They think Trump has the best chance.

"A majority of 52 percent said Trump has the best shot of any GOP candidate to win the general election in November, while a plurality of 42 percent said he would be most effective at solving issues facing the United States, and another 37 percent said he would be the best candidate to handle the responsibilities that come with being commander in chief."

Read more:

More music to a Trump Democrat's ears. Could this primary season be more perfect? Meanwhile Hillary has increased her lead in favorability over the Bern-who in the wake of all these gun violence tragedies needs to be made to explain his 2005 vote with W to shield gun manufacturers from lawsuits.

Hillary rising some more.

By the way, the recent NH polls show Hillary and Bernie close but this is because non Democrats are allowed to vote in the Dem primary. Among Democrats she has a more solid lead. Even among liberals Bernie only leads her by 2 points. 

Meanwhile. the GOP insiders now think Ted Cruz is going to win Iowa which is better than Rubio winning. It seems likely that Trump and Cruz will be in a close battle there. 


  1. Mike, did you notice that Trump delved in birtherism again at the RJC? He suggested that because Obama doesn't use the term "radical Islamic Terrorism" that there's "something he's not telling us!" ... to which the room of presumably educated, upper middle class audience members cheered, clapped and laughed.

    If that played well in that crowd, maybe he should go full birther again. What do you think would happen if he adopted the following talking points:

    1. Obama is not just maybe, but definitely a Muslim foreigner, and he and his family will be facing treason and fraud charges once Trump gets elected. And he's not ruling out the death penalty... especially for possible involvement in domestic terror plots.

    2. It's no longer an option: we NEED to put ALL Muslims in internment camps immediately, and anybody who says otherwise is either stupid or a traitor or both.

    3. We need to specifically kill the families of Islamicists (wives, parents, children, grandchildren)... Oh, whoops, he already did suggest that. Perhaps waterboard them (because they deserve it) prior to executing them.

    Well, what do you think? Would that solidify Mr. Trump's lead in the GOP primary? Who will dare follow him there? Cruz is already on record supporting "religious liberties" ... even for Muslims. That sounds weak and liberal, doesn't it?

  2. I don't see Trump doing that. Again, I keep pointing out that he ruled out impeaching Obama. So it's not that he lacks all restraint.

    See Trump is to smart to say 'definitely' anything. And whatever he's doing now is working great for him. He will keep topping himself but I doubt he'd ever be categorical.

    What he seems to get is a key piece of campaign wisdom--when you are running for office, the only time you lose is when they pigeonhole you into specifics a la Bush Senior with 'No new taxes!'

  3. You always want wiggle room. It's enough for him to say we may need to do some things we've never done before. Even Hitler didn't run on gas chambers. He was elected!

    Campaigning is an art that Trump seems to get

  4. Maybe you're right... but I think the GOP base want's specific hard right promises... not weasel words. Like Trump did on deportation. No weasel words there! I think of Trump as the anti-weasel word candidate. "No new taxes" was only a problem after the election when taxes were raised. Do you think that Trump will actually carry through with deporting the 12 million he promised? If not, what's the difference with the "no new taxes" pledge?

    I don't think he's thinking that far in advance. I think he's just winging it, so what's the harm in promising the moon? Plus, it's easy to keep your promise not to impeach Obama AFTER he's no longer president! Lol... promise to put him and his family on trial for their lives for treason AFTER he's no longer president. That's not impeachment, is it?

    1. ... and besides, even if the GOP base isn't ready to see the first family swinging from the gallows after the election now... I have every confidence that Trump could sell them on the concept. Should be a pretty easy sell in my estimation!

    2.'s the job of candidates to distinguish themselves from the pack with their vision for the nation. ;^D

      I think that's a vision the GOP base could easily warm to.

    3. I see Limbaugh got right to it: he's saying CAIR is the Muslim Brotherhood.

    4. They seem content with what they've heard so far. Why fix what isn't broken?

    5. Well, maybe you're right. I'd just like to see him wrap this whole thing up, and I'm trying to guess... I think they might very well like to be driven to even further levels of insanity... delighted (so to speak) by being even more crazy ideas than they are used to now. My operating theory is that it's impossible to be too right wing for the modern GOP, so why not go for it?

    6. Because it's possible to be too smart by half? Every day Trump doesn't disappear that's enough egg on the face of Rubin and friends. LOL

  5. O/T, Mike, did you see this about one of the victims:

    Elsewhere I read where he was a proud and enthusiastic NRA member and anti-abortionist too.

    What I think is strange is that he's described everywhere I read about it as a "messianic Jew" with no further explanation. I went to a wedding one time that I thought was a Jewish wedding (I sat at a table with a bunch of Iranians... Lol), but what I found out was they were messianic Jews. From what I could tell (in my research after the fact), messianic Jews are not considered real Jews by ... well... ah... real Jews. They're Christians who adopt the trappings of Judaism. So it's confusing why the descriptions of this guy doesn't explain that.