Wednesday, December 23, 2015

The Chris Christie Strategy of a Trump Democrat

Whoever thought we'd see the day when I am a Chris Christie fan but now is it. What it comes down to is this: anybody but Marco Rubio.

Nate Silver basically explained yesterday that Rubio is the man-for the Establishment to avoid Trump or even Cruz it needs Rubio to do well.

I don't agree with Nate on his framing of Rubio's status at present.

micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): We jumped on the Marco Rubio bandwagon a while ago, and there were a few weeks when the conventional wisdom seemed to hold that Rubio was the front-runner. But he never got much of a bump in the polls. He got some endorsements but never more than a trickle. And now the narrative has flipped — at least a little — and people are wondering why Rubio isn’t doing better. So, our question for today is: Marco Rubio — overrated, underrated, properly rated?
natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): He’s either underrated now or was overrated before, because the conventional wisdom has changed a lot more than the underlying facts of the case."

Wrong. Rubio's status on a relative basis is going down. After the third debate, when he bitchslapped Jeb, it looked like he was ready to launch. And he did-he soared to the low teens-with most of this support being sucked away from Jeb.

What is notable though over the last month or so is that Cruz has surged ahead of him. Rubio's numbers have been flat or even slipping back a little. And this drop back has been correlated with Cruz stepping up his attacks on Rubio, especially the A word-amnesty.

His RCP average has now fallen to just 11 percent compared with 18 percent for Cruz. It's also not clear what state Rubio is going to win. He needs to do well in NH-Nate agrees with this. Basically Silver is saying Rubio needs to be the one to get it done for the Establishment and he needs to place well in NH-even if he can't catch Trump he has to finish first among the Establishment candidates.
In NH, Rubio is currently tied for second in NH with 12 percent on RCP-Trump leads at 28 percent. If he finishes behind Cruz and Trump, that's not good. What's more Christie is right on his tail in NH now at 11.3 percent. 
Hence, I'm a Chris Christie man now! Because if Christie wins, he'll still have a very hard time catching on in other states because of both ideological and Bridegate reasons. So a Christie win in NH probably won't be enough for him to catch on elsehere, while it would at the same time be a real blow to Rubio-the man the GOP needs to win. 

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