Wednesday, December 23, 2015

The GOP Establishment is Still Not Doing What it Needs to Do

Not that I think they have much control but surely they should at least do what they can do to winnow the field. One place to start would be the debates. But while they do have plans to winnow the next debate to just six candidates, they are going to let the losers hand out at the Kid's Table. Why by now wouldn't you just dissolve this?

But hey, it's their primary and they can screw it up if they want to:

"For as long as there's been a 17-person field for the GOP nomination, mankind has longed to winnow that field -- first to a number that could plausibly fit on a stage, and now, to a number that could plausibly fit in a van."

"Well, there's some good news on that front. Fox Business Network has announced that its next debate, scheduled to take place in Charleston, South Carolina, on Jan. 14, will be governed by exacting new criteria that may limit the number of onstage candidates to as few as six."

"As you might expect, there is bad news as well: Rather than winnow the field, Fox Business will hand everyone who loses out on the main stage the opportunity to appear on another one of those undercard debates."

"So there you have it: Fox Business is pro-bailout."

"And it's a pity, because by the looks of things, this upcoming debate might have boldly limited itself to candidates who could actually win the presidential nomination. Per Politico's Hadas Gold:

"According to debate criteria that will be announced Tuesday, host Fox Business Network will consider both early-state and national poll results in deciding which candidates make the primetime forum. That main debate will feature candidates who place in the top six nationally, based on an average of the five most recent national polls recognized by Fox News, or place within the top five based on an average of the five most recent Iowa or New Hampshire state polls recognized by the network."

"By Gold's calculations, this is good news for Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, and -- somehow, some way -- Jeb Bush. That means the end of the road for Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, and Rand Paul, none of whom figure prominently in HuffPost Pollster's national primary poll average, and -- with the exception of Kasich's showing in New Hampshire -- none of whom show any evidence of doing well in an early primary state."

Again, though I guess as a Trump Democrat , I'm happy. After all, what's obvious is the GOP Establishment needs to consolidate around one candidate ASAP-which is probably Marco Rubio.

Remember, the RNC makes the rules here for these debates. So keeping the Kid's Table pushes them away from their goal. I guess to a modest extent this does winnow the field a little. With Kasich relegated to the KT, it might hurt his chances in NH. If he loses support in NH it will accrue to one of the other three Establishment candidates there-Jeb, Rubio, Christie.

As I explain in the above link, the goal of a Trump Democrat-which is about more than Trump necessarily outright winning the nomination though that would be the proverbial grand slam; the point is for a non Establishment candidate to-quite possibly also Ted Cruz-or to make it take the E as long as possible to get their candidate-but to make sure someone other than Rubio come first among the E in NH.

In that sense Kasich's demotion is a midl setback. But from the E's point of view, they would have been better to scrap the thing all together.

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