Monday, December 14, 2015

Is David Brock Underestimating Marco Rubio?

Actually, it's interesting-both Brock and John Podesta claim to be convinced Cruz is going to be the nominee.

But Yglesias noted that Brock seems sort of dismissive of Rubio:

"A top Democratic opposition research group says it won't go after Marco Rubio — but why?"

"Brock said he doesn't dismiss what he characterized as an outside chance that Donald Trump could win his party’s nomination — "You never discount a demagogue" — but said he is not prepared to pour resources into planning for the rise of Sen. Marco Rubio.

"I just don’t see it," he said of the young Florida senator. "He has some critical weaknesses, his absenteeism, weird listlessness on the campaign trail, all the mess with his personal finances — there’s a lot. He hasn’t been vetted."

"I think Cruz will end up as the nominee," Brock added, "and I think Trump will support him and have a big platform. We’ll be hearing from him at the convention and on the campaign trail."

Yglesias then tries to game out why Brock said this. Is he serious or joshing? I agree Rubio has the issues he's listed-he does seem listless on the campaign trial. Morning Joe actually asked the same quesiton I had yesterday: if Rubio is not in the Senate-and he's never at the Senate-and he's not campaigning in NH or Iowa, where is he exactly?

Still, in my mind, it's vital to make sure Rubio is not the nominee. Greg Sargent was trying to push the panic button on the idea that Rubio could give HRC a run for her money among young voters.

I don't know if that's true but I agree in general that Rubio is more electable than Cruz or Trump.
Podesta is another big shot in HillaryWorld who thinks it will be Cruz.

Donald Trump's apparent belief that the Republican primary contest is now a two-person race between himself and Ted Cruz isn't exactly shared at the top of Hillary Clinton's campaign.

Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta handicapped the GOP race for 90 Democratic donors assembled at a private fundraising event in Berkeley, California, on Thursday night, according to a Clinton backer who was in the room, telling the crowd that he viewed Cruz as the likeliest nominee, followed by Trump, and then Marco Rubio.

Read more:

That sounds about right. On paper Rubio looks like the Establishment candidate most likely to get to win the primary. The trouble is he hasn't focused on the early states and it's' not clear what primaries he's in line to win at this point.

He has this theory of the race that it's a waste of time to campaign on the ground. He thinks that ad spending will get him there. Ad spending so far has been anything but indicative.

The idea of three lanes-Trump lane, Cruz lane, and an Establishment lane, seems quite plausible, of course, the hope is just a Trump and Cruz lane, full stop.

But even if there is a EL, it''s not yet clear that it's Rubio. Maybe it's, much as I hate to say it, Chris Christie. Christie is not doing much nationally but he's competitive in NH now. If he does well there-if not winning then at least a strong second maybe the big E starts to put its money behind him.

So I'm not so certain it will be Rubio.

No comments:

Post a Comment