Michael Moore and How Smart Are the Republicans

      Moore is not an optimist. He thinks we should get used to saying "President Romney."

      "Filmmaker Michael Moore joined HuffPost Live Thursday and predicted that the influence of money in politics would lift Mitt Romney to victory over President Barack Obama in November."

      "Mitt Romney is going to raise more money than Barack Obama. That should guarantee his victory," Moore told host Josh Zepps. "I think people should start to practice the words 'President Romney.' To assume that the other side are just a bunch of ignoramuses who are supported by people who believe that Adam and Eve rode on dinosaurs 6,000 years ago is to completely misjudge the opposition."
Moore said he believes that if the election were conducted "American Idol"-style, and Americans were able to vote from their couches, Obama "would win hands down."

     "That's not what's gonna happen," he told Zepps. "This election's going to be decided on who gets out the most people that day. Who's up at four in the morning, making sure that dozens, hundreds, thousands of people in their communities are getting out to vote. And the Republican machine that is set up and the money behind it to guarantee [what] is really the only important thing -- turnout on that day -- that's what looks pretty scary here."

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/30/michael-moore-mitt-romney_n_1843824.html

      Thank you Mr. Optimist. He also makes a comment that the Democrats are counting on our fear of a return of the Bush years but that this is not enough.

      I can't understand that. Speaking for myself, nothing sounds more scary than "President Romney." And by the way, the Republicans are finally-very gingerly-trying to say it's time to stop beating up on George W. Bush. it's time for his spin cycle.

      For me, the fear of the end of the New Deal which a Romney election means is more than enough. I don't get people who sit around still arguing about what the President did or didn't do in 2009.

     Ok. As far as much of what Moore says here, the quoted part, certainly, he's exactly right. The Republicans are not stupid. They are very smart.

     Moore's right-if this were an American Idol style vote Obama would win hands down. And we have the numbers to prove it-the polls show him leading by a 2 to 1 margin for unlikely voters! Oy! But think about the American idol, just click a bottom on your phone to text your choice-Romney or Obama.

     Obviously Obama would win that. And so we see how smart the Repugs are in fighting making voting easier and more accessible. They won't hear of Internet voting. The now have a new poll tax going this year-AKA voter ids, though happily, they went down in Texas today, are having problems in Florida and now South Carolina worries they may lose theirs as well.

     But the GOP is smart. Think about it. They are in the minority, yes. But we should not assume that they can't keep themselves going a long time with that. Ok. I'm much more of an optimist than Moore.

     It looks to me like the GOP will soon really start to suffer from the demographic and social shifts we've seen. The RNC convention platform this year-that even goes after pornography, shows how much more conservative they are socially than the rest of the country. This is why they call a foul when the Dems even bring up social issues.

     Still, if the GOP is the minority view, it has been for a long time. Really, since FDR, since the New Deal, the Republican party has been in the minority of public opinion in thhis country and what's more they know themselves to be.

     Yet they've survived. And, starting with Buckley in the early 50s they've been in attack mode. Finally, in 1968 it started to show electorally.

     I've heard Rush Limbaugh complain that Social Security is a scheme to get Democrats elected. He's largely right at least with respect of it's effect. The GOP that had been the dominant party since the Civil War went  to being the minority party that was only strong in certain regions after FDR.

     Since 1968, with the maturation of the Southern Strategy, though they've fought the Democrats to a rough parity.

     Roughly what we've seen after years of Democratic dominance, is after 1968 for every two elections-at all levels of government-Federal, State, and Local-the GOP has won one.

    Prior to 1968 the Dems were wining more like 2 of every 3 or even more. So the GOP is smart. They could never have won so many elections if they weren't.

     And the Medicare fight since Paul Ryan has joined is a perfect example of this. The Republican strategy explicitly started from an admission that they have the disadvantage on this issue. However, their strategy has maximized it for them.

    They know they can't win the debate outright but they don';t need to. They merely need to "fight to a draw" as they explicitly put it. True, liberals .like mysefl made a lot of this when the story delveoped on Politico. They admitted that if this discussion gets to deep in the weeds of tangible policy, they lose.

    They admitted this. Yet, here we are, three weeks into the Ryan era and at least until now, we have actually only gotten a draw on Medicare.


    The Repugs have managed to muddy the water enough with their counter charge about Obama being "the only President to every cut Medicare to the tune of $717 billion dollars-and the Dems have not been ready to thrust back.

    Hopefully they will. It does seem that Ryan is getting called out quite widely by his highly dishonest speech last night that was simply a work of political and economic fiction. That's a good thing.

    We'll see if the Dems do a better job on Medicare going forward. This should be a weapon that we can mercilessly use against the GOP again and again. The polls shouldn't show Obama and Romney as even.

     In some state races we see Dems like Heidi Heitkamp successfully using it, forcing the RSCC to redirect funds to a race they expected to win easily. Hopefully the national Dems, including the Obama team are watching.