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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Right Now Republicans Are Winnning Medicare Fight

     I hate to say it, but right now the GOP must think they have the issue right where they want it as we go into Paul Ryan's speech tonight.

     The polls seem to point to the fact that Americans are split. You have charges from the Democrats that Romney-Ryan want to end Medicare but you have counter-charges from the Republcians that it's actually the Democrats who have harmed Medicare, that President Obama 'is the only President to ever cut Medicare, to the tune of $717 billion dollars' and voters aren't sure what to believe.

     The GOP knows they are on the losing side of the Medicare issue. The Ryan plan is very unpopular, especially with seniors. Yet just the same, while Americans prefer the President's plan on Medicare, they don't connect the dots and prefer the President to Romney-Ryan, but actually split down the middle as to who is better.

     This so far has gone exactly like the Repugs wanted it to go. The $717 billion dollar Medicare cut is a lie, but they have gotten mileage out of it. Their plan from the start was to merely fight the Democrats to a tie and then return to the economy. They don't expect to win it outright but rather muddy the waters just enough.

     The Democrats have not been ready for this counter-attack. They will need to adjust.

     "That means the Obama campaign will have to change up to keep up, said Bob Shrum, a veteran of many Democratic presidential campaigns."

     “Long term, as the campaign plays out, I would be very surprised if this issue didn’t redound very strongly to Obama’s benefit. But,” Shrum said, the Romney campaign has “thrown up the static of the $716 billion cut in Medicare.”

     He added, “There’s a real advantage for Obama here, but he’s going to have to develop it, and he’s going to have to block the static that’s coming from Romney.”

     "Democratic consultant Joe Trippi said the Ryan Medicare plan could help Obama’s team link its portrayal of Romney as a cold-hearted venture capitalist to fears about his agenda. But Trippi said the Obama campaign’s response to Romney’s counter-attack is cause for concern."

     “I don’t get the sense that they expected that attack or were ready to thrust back on it, and that’s something that they may now regret or try to fix,” Trippi said. “The Republicans were better prepared for the attack coming than we were for the response.”

      Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/80328.html#ixzz24wqH2R4Y

      What drives you crazy is that Americans agree with the President-but half of them don't even know it:

       "Ryan’s plan doesn’t have majority support among any major voting group — even among Republicans, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll this month. And seniors — the most reliable voting group of all — are the plan’s strongest opponents, preferring the current Medicare program by a 71 percent to 23 percent margin."

      "An ABC News-Washington Post poll released Monday had Romney winning 47 percent of registered voters to Obama’s 46 percent. Obama didn’t even win on Medicare itself. When asked who would do a better job on Medicare, 42 percent of registered voters picked Obama — and 45 percent chose Romney.
The poll showed a big disconnect: Two-thirds of those same registered voters said they didn’t like the Ryan Medicare plan. When asked about his proposal, 33 percent supported it and 62 percent opposed it."

      "Last week’s Quinnipiac/CBS/New York Times numbers in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin tell a similar story — hugely lopsided opposition to turning Medicare into subsidies for private insurance, but a static race between Obama and Romney."

      "Democrats can take solace in the idea that there’s still room to shape people’s opinions on Medicare. Last week’s Pew poll found that 28 percent of adults still hadn’t heard anything about the GOP Medicare plan, and when it was explained to them, only 23 percent knew it was Ryan’s plan. But that same poll showed 44 percent didn’t know whose proposal it was — and 17 percent thought it was Obama’s."

      "Castor, whose Tampa district is home not just to the Republican convention but to many seniors and prospective future Medicare users, said she believes the attention that’s going to be put on the Ryan plan post-conventions is eventually going to sway people."

       "Past experience, including serving on the House Budget Committee with Ryan, makes her confident of that."

      “We have been having this debate over Medicare and Medicaid for a couple of years, and AARP would speak out to say this is a threat, and people just didn’t believe it,” Castor said. “As soon as Mitt Romney named Paul Ryan, I noticed people began to take it more seriously.”

      “It’s almost like when you have a storm out in the Caribbean and it’s floating around out there and you’re not sure where it’s headed,” Castor said. “Now it’s becoming a real hurricane threat. It’s like Hurricane Romney heading toward us, and people will start paying attention.”

       "Begala cited two famous lines to preview what lies ahead: from “The Wizard of Oz” — “All in due time, my pretty” — and from “Pulp Fiction” —“We’re going to go medieval on their ass.”

      Sounds good, but let's hope they do it before the election.

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