Obama Down by 1 in NC, Up By 4 in Florida

     To be sure you have to be careful with all the polls. A lot of people say they don't look at them at all. I admit I look at them with interest, but by the very fact that there are so many polls and each poll has a different result, tells you assumptions matter a lot, like in models in economics.

     I notice that there was that one poll that the headlines have all been screaming about that says that the budget deficit is important  to voters-and of course voters trust Romney more than the President on the deficit.

    This first of all shows that the voters aren't informed about the deficit. But what really struck me is how misleading the headlines were. They say the poll shows that the deficit matters to voters when to the contrary the woman who commissioned the poll-she was called "nonpartisan" though she's actually another former Bushie like Rove and Matt Dowd-framed the questions around the deficit.

    It's not that the deficit is so important to voters but that she framed all the questions to be about the deficit. Not surprising that she sees the results confirm her theory.

    Anyway, a few interesting points about these latest two polls in NC and Florida:

    "According to a new Time/CNN/ORC poll, President Obama leads Mitt Romney in Florida — but Romney edges Obama in North Carolina."

    "The poll, released Monday, shows Obama with a four-point lead over Romney in Florida, beating the former Massachusetts governor 50 to 46 among likely voters. Among registered voters, Obama leads 51 percent to 42 percent."

    "In North Carolina — the site the Democratic National Convention — Romney edges Obama slightly among likely voters. Time/CNN/ORC finds that Romney draws 48 percent of the vote, versus 47 percent for Obama."

    "Among registered voters, however, Obama edges Romney with 48 percent of the vote to Romney's 47 percent of the vote."

    "In contest after contest, the gap between Obama and Romney among likely voters and registered voters is significant. And a recent poll found that Obama leads even more among unregistered and unlikely voters.
In both polls, the margin of error is about plus or minus 3 percent. "

     http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/08/poll-obama-up-in-florida-down-in-nc-133349.html?hp=l8

     It's clear that the President does lead in the least coveted demographic-those likely not to vote. The Dems tend to trail in this category. Going forward they need to figure out a way to reverse this. No doubt part of the problem is that the GOP makes this a self-fulfilling prophecy by cutting down on early voting, disallowing things like Internet voting, righting tooth and nail for things like voting rights for ex-convicts and of course this year the rage is voter id laws which in fact amounts to the return of the poll tax.

    This is why I don't get why Biden committed a "gaffe" in what he said about chains. Imposing a poll tax on a group of voters that is disproportionately African-American is the return of slavery. By taking away the right to vote what could be a worse attack on the freedom of African-American and other disenfranchised voter?

    However, clearly all these problems won't be defeated during this election though the Dems and the Obama Justice Department must do all we can do to fight the systematic disenfranchisement of the voter ids during this election.

    The other thing that stands out to me is that Florida poll. While among likely voters the President's lead is 4, what's interesting is that he is at the magical 50% level in that poll. I've noticed that a lot of recent polls-whether state or national-have shown him either at or near to 50%.

     If that number of 50-46 is in any sense accurate, then Romney need be worried. Both because the President is at 50%, but just as significant, is that poll shows only 4% undecided. If at all representative then this means that there aren't many voters left for Romney to win over. Indeed, if accurate it means that Romney has an uphill fight where he has to try to somehow finagle those who have already decided to vote for Obama-never an easy thing once voters start becoming decided.

    I notice that another recent poll shows the President up by about a 50-44 margin in Ohio. If he can win both of these it's over for Romney. If he even wins one of two it may well be over. Polls that show most voters as being decided are a bad sign for Romney.